weatherwiz

Kiss the enhanced risk goodbye

The 18z looked like garbage. Outside of some scattered pockets of wind damage and some hail I think most will be crying bust tomorrow night b/c they had way too high expectations.

I'm thinking 7-11 I agree these things usually speed up on timing but in those instance we have a pre-frontal trough driving the convection.

faster timing? Don't think the faster timing idea happens. This convection is all actually looking to be associated with the cold front itself. Which is actually a little...uncommon (maybe not the right word) but don't even see much of a pre-frontal trough signal which is what usually sparks off the convection anyways. The cold front doesn't come close to us until late evening. We are going to see weakening llvl lapse rates due to loss of heating and the overall look to me doesn't really scream enough wind damage for the enhanced risk.

that's going to be the exact area to watch...relatively small area too. That's where the greatest and really only tornado potential exists I think. I do think though the enhanced either gets removed or trimmed significantly...all of CT removed, a large part of MA, and even trimmed from VT/NH and bring the slight down to where the enhanced is in those areas.

I am still boggled by the enhanced

Twitter is absolute trash. People bringing up 5/15/18 to tomorrow b/c it’s the same day. THEY SHOULDN’T BE MENTIONED IN THE SAME SENTENCE. They are nowhere near the same type of setup...not even close. Who gives a fook if it’s the same day. Stupid stupid stupid

Well they fall when the front approaches but yeah lapse rates aren’t anything to sneeze at

Got it out!!!

A MURDER HORNET JUST FLEW IN MY CAR...I’m going to die

The HRRR is on the fast train regarding timing.

I a little surprised by the enhanced really...not sure I see wind damage being that widespread...kinda hard to get really good widespread wind damage with rather steep llvl lapse rates

Gotcha. Well if we can get dews around 65 that will at least help boost instability given lapse rates won't be too great.

Sort of advecting in from the OV? That might be what I was overlooking...source region

No EML. Lapse rates will be ehhh. yeah those dews aren't happening lol

The HRRR would be borderline localized tornado outbreak but yeah that looks strange to me as well. It does develop some pretty high CAPE with not much of a cap so perhaps that's the reason? But I just don't see enough support (trigger) for that scenario. The HRRR also seems to have a bias with WF supercells

I wonder if the instability is overdone. Soundings from the 3km NAM show pretty steep mid-level lapse rates which may be overdone.

SW VT/extreme NW MA could be a really good spot for something but I think the best ingredients are going to go to waste...don't see much of a trigger to generate convection during the afternoon...or at least enough support for deep enough convection to utilize the dynamics aloft. Going to be ugly on the cold side of the front...rain and 50's...yuck

unless it's an LP supercell

well my friend and I officially cancelled our trip to OK the end of the month...though we knew this a while back. Guess I'll just have to chase tornadoes around CT.

Do you really think we see dewpoints in the 63-65F range? There is model support for it but I am struggling to find any evidence that happens. I can see 61-62 happening. Also, I see some on social media going sounding happy and this is something I've noticed and not sure if there is some type of issue with generating soundings but some of the soundings (SHARPpy) people are tossing around have rather high lapse rates and dewpoints and thus throwing out some big CAPE values.

Should be enough instability left to keep potential for some damaging wind gusts.

Definitely agreed the warm front could be a pretty decent focal point...especially if any convection can form along it. There definitely seems to be at least enough support to keep a line of t'storms moving into the region (even after sunset) but I think the overall greatest potential for severe wx is going to be just west of us...I think timing kinda hurts us. That strong piece of vort tracking into NNE happens just a bit too late. It would seem like the greatest chance for any severe associated with the warm front would be mid-to-late afternoon, however, there may not be much overall support for developing convection then. Strongest height falls seem to arrive shortly after the best ingredients would be in place. But we should certainly see some scattered wind damage tomorrow!!!

I am a bit shocked it's so far east. I think the greatest overall potential is to our northwest. What kinda sucks for us is timing but there seems to be enough instability left to keep the threat for damaging winds through the I-84 corridor.

Some of these parameters are really nice looking but I'm not a huge fan of the lack of stronger ulvl support...at least enough to make things super interesting.