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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    But yes, I am. I'm liking where I sit for the model consensus now.
  2. OceanStWx
    Crush job at 18z. Full on blizzard conditions given the 900 mb wind speeds too.
  3. OceanStWx
    I will say that NWP is pretty terrible at choosing surface low locations. I would focus more on upper level features (which admittedly is more difficult since we have so much real time MSLP data).
  4. OceanStWx
    Curious to see what HPC does with the next update. Probably need to start thinking about sharpening the western edge.
  5. OceanStWx
    I think that's the way you have to play it right now. It is the Euro, which gives you some pause, but if this was any other model that far west and juiced it would be tossed.
  6. OceanStWx
    These hi-res models are in good shape based on radar right now. They take that banding and wash it out over NYC, while the meat and potatoes focuses from central LI on north and east.
  7. OceanStWx
    00z 4 km NAM is similar, shade west of the RGEM. Really happy to be an eastern WFO for this one.
  8. OceanStWx
    RGEM not favoring western areas from this point forward. I will say judging by radar it looks too far east, but probably not the scenario NYC wanted to see.
  9. OceanStWx
    24" average at PWM. Even excluding the ARW members.
  10. OceanStWx
    Bufkit soundings across SNE do have a little potential for TSSN tonight.
  11. OceanStWx
    Lighting up nicely.
  12. OceanStWx
    Pants optional at WFOs around New England.
  13. OceanStWx
    That's one thing helping our case for blizzards. It's going to be a dry snow that should blow pretty easily, plus the depth of the cold air will allow for pretty efficient mixing compared to our usual inverted soundings.
  14. OceanStWx
    Did you move to BGR?
  15. OceanStWx
    I've seen breakers sending spray over roof tops and jumping the sea wall there, with storms that passed well out to sea. This is going to be pretty epic. I'm willing to bet a few homes pay the ultimate price on the shore.
  16. OceanStWx
    Wave guidance is forecasting 29 feet in the bay. And it usually is underdone.
  17. OceanStWx
    Sea spray finding it's way four lots back from the beach at Scituate?
  18. OceanStWx
    Insider trading. Now conceivably they could hit their blizzard warning still with 6-10", but I think the media would have a field day if that's all that fell.
  19. OceanStWx
    Playing with fire down at OKX. Either high fives all around, or some explaining to do.
  20. OceanStWx
    Is your roof strapped down? 06-12z Tuesday eastern Mass is going to rock. Ginxy's favorite U wind anomalies got even more impressive on the 00z GEFS.
  21. OceanStWx
    NAM Bufkit sounding for BOS is a little MAULish around 03z tonight. Wouldn't surprise me at all.
  22. OceanStWx
    Here is a reason to spike footballs, 9 out of 10 times in this event we should see more snow than this graphic. That's not a bad lower bound. A good place to cap it is this graphic, 9 out of 10 times we end up lower than these amounts. This one does show HPC's thinking on the coastal front/OES enhancement jackpot, and the possible location of deformation jackpots.
  23. OceanStWx
    It's not hard to see the features in the QPF field. The deformation would be the white dash, and the coastal front the blue dash. And very much not run out of Kevin's basement.
  24. OceanStWx
    Actually second look and that's west of the Euro features. Deformation setting up from DXR-BAF-EEN-IZG. Coastal front PVD-BOS then offshore of ME.
  25. OceanStWx
    It's nearly an inch higher on the canal. Regardless, I do love the placement of QPF though. Really highlights the coastal front and then the deformation band. The placement of these features does match the Euro.
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