SN_Lover

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It's a slider.....This is the last time I will be this nice. Read more and post less. 

I do this for a living, but okay. @Wow , feel free to remove my account. 

Just now, ST21 said:

NAM nailed last weekends snow and has stuck to its gun each run on this storm. Wouldn't be going against it right now. Especially with all the other models trending that was as well

You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate. 

Just now, FatherNature said:

So the QPF is trending up due to a wider moisture field, is not a trend? Didn’t you get banned in the Dorian thread?

It's about the H5 and Jet Steam, that's what matters. 

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

If you go back and read the last few pages, you will have your answer     

I did and it's just QPF maps which changes every run. I am looking and seeing nothing as aforementioned in my post. I think Brad is a respected met and can see his forecasting reasoning. People calling his maps "lazy" is really insulting to all the great work he has done. 

Just now, BullCityWx said:

Besides almost every model shifting north today? The isothermal column from start to finish? 

What's shifting Noth? SLP, QPF, etc.? QPF changes from run to run and will not be the exact same at every model run. The area of the low is in the right exit region of the jet steak which is the area of descent. Also, the zonal does not aid to deepen the low and the trough is tilted positive. ECMWF and GFS show similar results at H5. 

1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

I think that’s pretty fair but I could definitely see it move 75 miles west. 

 

I didn’t say the storms were similar, I meant that forecasting less than an inch in the triangle is a dangerous proposition given our trends and could force people into catchup mode.

What exact trends have you seen besides QPF and SLP fluctuations? 

13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Theres a 1/23/2003 level of catch up potential here on the professionals part.

Not going to happen. 

Jet streams are completely different than 2003.

2020

2003

The low SLP is over a un-favorable location for this current system, in contrast to the 2003 storm. 

Also, H5 does not provide any evidence of overamplification. 

Trough more tilted in 2003.

2020. Trough more zonal now. 

I think Brads forecast is on the money and maybe not conservative enough. Still a great storm to see some flakes! Any flakes should be a win! 

10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is the third leading story on fox. Much more responsible. 

Canadian ex-PM 'rooting' for Hurricane Dorian to slam Mar-a-Lago

Fake news!

Florida dumped the strict Miami building code also. This will be another test in 2 years to see if it was the right choice. 

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep. Slower = LF further north. Faster = freight train running into FL scenario. Still looks like steering collapses after LF and this thing sits somewhere for a good while and dumps rain. That threat certainly might need to be emphasized in the coming days if these trends continue

Not good considering the costal plain has zero elevation change and it like a pan.

Ill start....

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, when we start linking to the Here data (and other real-time data) we'll have to be in the cloud. Our IT Infrastructure folks are already talking about moving in that direction. NCDOT has some live data (TIMS - current road incidents) which is served out as Georss feeds. We (NCDIT) have Python scripts that convert the data every 3 minutes into SDE/SQL server, which is referenced to a published service. **This is not exactly live but close.  

Here's our AGOL page:

http://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html

  

Really neat! Do you mind sharing those python scripts?

6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Just the services here for weather:

https://www.weather.gov/gis/WebServices

We are an Esri shop and display our services through ArcGIS Online. Dealing with the GeoEvent server, we are not (yet) using that cloud platform. (right now)We manage our own data on our own internal servers. We are looking into linking to real time data working through "Here" (..for congestion data). But again we're managing the backend data (our servers, not cloud (..yet)).   

You will only be able to display real-time data with arcgis geoevent licence which uses the spatial temporal big data store. 

On 8/13/2019 at 6:45 AM, FallsLake said:

Thanks Solak! My group is charge in organizing/providing GIS services and radar is one of the map services. Hopefully we can (directly) access any new outputs. **sometimes GIS services are only accessible through the website viewer.   

Are you using geoevent server? Should not be hard to get radar.

When did Exxon Mobile enter the chat?

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The United States is a relatively small part of the world. A map illustrating the increasing global frequency of heat waves can be found here:

https://maps.esri.com/globalriskofdeadlyheat/#

Nice map! My professor did climate models and almost all of them had the amazon burning. This map supports this with the massive increase in heatwaves in the amazon. I expect the Amazon to burn in my lifetime due to global warming. 

Right on cue, NAO and AO positive and PNA negative. Love me some warm winters! 

2 hours ago, BillT said:

the ranking of warmest is based on hundredths of a degree a precision we do not have the ability yet to find.

You're making yourself look silly at this point with this anecdotal garbage.

8 minutes ago, BillT said:

to claim the SUN does NOT cause global warming is utterly insane........

Wow. What a comment. XD

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yet during the age of the Dinos CO2 and temps were higher than they are now... But GW and CC aside, this is not the place for that shitstorm

Quote

 this is not the place for that shitstorm

But proceeds to post shitstorm "facts".

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

The arctic is literally on FIRE with 2,3000,0000 hectares burning and counting. Almost ALL of greenland is forecasted to go above freezing. Ice thickness plummeting. Near record low extent. The environment is flashing red alarm bells and we still argue if global warming is happening. Absolutely mind boggling. 

 

 

This post would be more persuasive if SN_Lover took the time to proofread his own posts and perhaps to relate the current data to the historical record.

As is, it comes across as overwrought at best, if not trolling.

What's trolling is global warming deniers sticking their heads in the sand. 

The arctic is literally on FIRE with 2,300,000 hectares burning and counting. Almost ALL of greenland is forecasted to go above freezing. Ice thickness plummeting. Near record low extent. The environment is flashing red alarm bells and we still argue if global warming is happening. Absolutely mind boggling. 

Edenton close to 120 HI.  

Had a 4 hour long thunderstorm in tampa lastnight. Not kidding about the duration.