dmc76

Almost 4” this morning here 

1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

until something changes in the Pacific, we’re not going to have a cold pattern lock into place for any extended period of time, sorry.

1-2 day cold pattern. 

Yawn 

since Dec 1st (DTW) 

the ratio between warm days and cold days is almost 6 to 1. 

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's nothing you all aren't used to and it won't be too severe with the higher sun angle, but there is fairly good indication for a significant blast of cold air (by late March standards) next week, with 850mb temps falling to -10*C or lower and the PV Split. Granted, there's still not much snow potential outside the LES snow belts.

I won't be up until the week of Easter, so I'm hoping it eases up & moderates by then.

I’ll believe this nonsense when it actually happens. 

54 minutes ago, Powerball said:

What's really sad is that the 2nd half of March is looking to end up below (even well below) normal, and potentially bring an extended arctic air outbreak.

I'll be coming up briefy at the end of March, and was hoping I didn't have to bring the winter coat. Not looking so good on that front right now.

Yea. I’ll believe it when I see it. 

On 3/9/2024 at 1:59 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Obviously 5 of the last 9 winters have been very mild, ever since the strong 2015-16 nino, and they have made their way into the top 10. After 11th warmest, the next 10 warm winters are all old (1870s-1950s plus 1 in 1980s). With the always cyclical nature of weather patterns, enso, cc, there are so many factors at play. 

I too agree that temps & snow are two different things. But with the type of winter climate we have, I don't think we will ever have to worry about struggling with precip type during "every storm". Even during the warmest winters you get cold storms. IMO the number of snowcover days would be the far bigger metric to watch to look for any notable decline. 

At Detroit, the "barest" decade was the 1990s, then the 1930s, when looking at annual avg of 1"+ snowcover days.

1910s- 58 days

1920s- 52 days

1930s- 42 days 

1940s- 49 days

1950s- 47 days 

1960s- 56 days  

1970s- 57 days 

1980s- 47 days 

1990s- 37 days 

2000s- 52 days

2010s- 53 days 

 

We have 5 to 6 more winters to go before the 2020s are complete. That will be a good assessment time, because it really averages out all the ups and downs of the decade. This wild notion that some have that the weather used to be consistent always blows me away because the weather has never been consistent here. I find that a slight bit of Winter warming is more of a help than a hindrance here snow wise. What I want to avoid is many winters like this disaster we just went through.

Last 10 winters. Is roughly 1.6 degrees warmer than what the 90’s was. 

The only 16 inch plus storm that I can remember that was done within 12 hours was that New Year’s Eve 2008 storm and that’s as rare as it gets around here. 

20 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I get it though.

It was most certainly memorable in terms of the total amounts, how widespread the 12"+ amounts were, and even duration.

But from an observational perspective. I can see how it may have be forgettable if you're one whose preference is for storms with say blizzard conditions, TSSN, 12"+ amount within a short window, etc.

EDIT: BTW, just trying to offer a more nuanced take instead of being quick to bash / criticize Stevo about his memory.

I totally understand what you’re saying. I get it it wasn’t as flashy as most 16 inch storms are. It took 29 hours to get it and I do understand people will forget it because it took forever to get to that point but Detroit is not notorious for 12 inch plus events so I don’t know how people could forget about it and somebody like Steve chooses to forget about it because he just likes to complain about Southeast Michigan, that’s my opinion 

For the record, the snow started around 2 AM Sunday morning and ended around 7 AM Monday morning.

i’m not diminishing the storm at all. I just know it was a long, duration event. And Steve, forgetting the storm is classic Steve. Complain just to complain. 

It was a long duration event. 

On 2/2/2024 at 12:36 PM, Stevo6899 said:

For some odd reason I don't recall this storm here in metro detroit. Maybe it was ghd2? I do remember a snowstorm forecasted 3-5 days before detroit hosted the superbowl in 2006.  I don't think anything even ended up accumulating.

Mysteriously u don’t remember. That was an area wide 13-18”  15-16” in central macomb to be exact 

Just under 5” here. Nice little event 

47 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Heavier than New Years 2008?

35 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

This is probably another one of those events where your area gets two or three more inches than the east side. One of these days I'm gonna take a ride to the hills during an event.

I’m on the east side now. I have relocated to the the Stoney creek area. No longer in the mountains 

That was some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen locally here, at one point tI had to be pushing 4 inches an hour

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Of course I am out of town for a surprise, overachiever.

Yep. 3-4” across north of 59.  Maybe another 1.5” - 2” to go as well by looking at the radar. A nice 4-6” event 

The opposite of 2013/14 

21 minutes ago, tuanis said:

The morning after. Amazing what a few inches of wraparound higher ratio fluff can do.

I haven’t seen the sun in a month

About 7” total since 4pm yesterday 

About 5.25”

Surface temps will be in the mid 30’s at the start. Sounds very familiar 

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Im not a good analog person lol. I can tell you how much snow fell when, but cant tell you the origin of it. I mean, we got 16.7" from a bowling ball type storm GHDII and have had many gulf lows produce the general 6-12.

 

Also, will be interesting to see how LES performs in the storms wake.

Best analog potentially is the 1992 storm. 

At that time there wasn’t local spotters to measure snow so you had to rely on local news to give you reports, but I do remember a reporter stationed in Taylor Michigan saying that he measured 14 inches of snow on the ground. My dad said it was over a foot. I was young I had a bed time so I can’t give any more details. lol 

Just now, Frog Town said:

I remember this storm.  Arctic air raced across michigan during the storm and caused a rapic change over from heavy rain to crazy wind and snow.  I stayed up all night for the transition and it was epic.  Even had Lightning and thunder here in toledo.  

I don’t remember rain in this system. What I remember it started at 11 o’clock. It started heavy and ended heavy. It was like eight hour show. 10-15” fell across SEMI. 2 days off of school. 

Just sayin…