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Superstorm

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    Central PA Winter 2024/2025

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    As we anxiously await the next run of the SNOWINPA model, today is a two-fer.  It's the latest sunrise of the year AND it's perihelion.  When the Earth is closest to the sun, it is travelling faster in its orbit (Keplar's second law for extra brownie points).  As such, meteorological winter is roughly 2 days shorter than meteorological summer in the northern hemisphere.  

    Yep. Love those astronomical stats!


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    • Like 2

    Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Honest question.  Where are thr lines between North, Central, and South Jersey?  I read these geographic descriptors so often and I never know what people are referencing.  Thanks. 

    Those are tough lines to draw up….as much is determined socially, geographically or politically.

    735cfba07a5507a8dfa366357ce3831d.jpg
    Some would say Mercer is South Jersey and ocean is Central Jersey.


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    The January 5/6 Thing

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    That is true, I have to say!  During the 2016 blizzard, I was up most of that night, maybe catching a nap here and there in amongst Jebwalks, taking photos, and regular snowfall measurements.  What's funny is that I was a bit worried someone would have called the cops on me, wondering why there was some whacko wandering around in the snow with a yardstick and a camera around his neck in the middle of the night!!!

    Don’t worry. That is normal life today.


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    The January 5/6 Thing

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 

    50/50 is your friend. Without it, that kind of track would scour out the cold and there would be little if any snow.

    Now it will help to enhance the WAA snows. Thump snows!

    Notice, even with a further north primary, the southern edge of snows has not moved much.
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Central PA Winter 2024/2025

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Well to clarify, when you say cold suppressing.... it is other features on the map actually.    I am not sure anyone here or in any thread fully understands it but in the case the low (bowling ball) coming from the west is in bullying its way to relevance longer which in turn brings more of a SE flow and moisture tap into much more of PA instead of it giving up to the coastal earlier.   It is still being blocked from cutting to our west but something changed to allow it to go quite a bit further East than progged just 24-48 hours ago.  Some models like the UK foretold of this possibility.  
     
    I did not believe it and it still may be folly but cannot ignore it at this point. 

    Taking longer to transfer. Still runs into that block as you can see snow in NYC did not go up dramatically.


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