RIC_WX
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Posts posted by RIC_WX
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Breaking news...Deep Creek and Garrett Co to join LWX? Haven't seen this posted before elsewhere.
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Alternating bouts of snow and cold, followed by interludes of sunshine and 70*F temps...almost reminds me of a certain storied winter around these parts, one which our younger contributors might not have been around to witness first hand.
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+0.2F here at 5AM. Frustrating to get so close and not drop below zero, but coldest of the season and colder than any low from past 2 years.
For whatever reason, Loudoun never has radiated as well as points further south along the piedmont.
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JYO and my PWS concur with a 90* reading...
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23 hours ago, yoda said:Just a lil chilly at International Falls this morning -- http://www.fox9.com/weather/international-falls-freezing-august
Read through that article and roll forward the analogs - both for the cold summertime lows and warm May-July period. Ugh. Nothing in there inspires confidence here.
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Just passed 2". Death band overhead.
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8 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:Is anyone sitting under that stationary cell down in Leesburg?
Checking in. It's been raining nonstop since about 11A, picked up about .5" in that time with occasional moderate downpours. Closing in on 1.5" for the event, maybe a little more.
Side note: This kind of over performance almost never, ever happens here. Except maybe this time of year.
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18 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:Yuck...
I want to yak every time I fly on a CR2 in clear wx. That said, lots of buzz on the AV forums about IAD in ground stop until 1PM, landings on RWY 30, tower evacuated...all things that generally don't ever happen. DCA is also reportedly landing on RWY 33, which is extremely rare. AA and DL have all but ceased attempts to operate there.
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Roads around Leesburg crazy slippery, frozen slush is no joke. Got rear ended at traffic light, came home and slid back down inclined driveway 2x with brake on and trans parked. That is a slick road.
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22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:JYO already up to 30 already, WeatherBug station right next my complex is at 27. Your guess
JYO been running warm this whole cold period if you ask me. Usually we run close but lately I have consistently been 3*-5*F colder on my PWS - which is typically quite accurate with any wind at all (it will run warm in full sun and calm air).
27.5* / 8 maybe 2 miles north of JYO. Up from 16 / 4 at 4AM
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If it wasn't for all the exuberance surrounding our fancy LR NWP schemes, these sunny blue skies...mild afternoons and seasonably chilly mornings would be reminding me much more of January 2002 then December 1989 or 2005.
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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol
January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.
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.92" today (still raining, but tapering off)
1.82" in November
4.18" in October
41" and counting YTD
Yes it was bone dry for 2 five week periods roughly overlapping June and September, but otherwise on pace for an average to slightly wetter than usual year. The summer was, by far, the wettest I have seen in 8 examples since moving here in 2010.
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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:The 84-85 analog showed up a long time ago when looking at enso conditions that were forecast. Interesting that it's still there.
2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January. Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same. Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.
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1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.
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IAD +0 for the month heading into today, the last day of the solid heatwave. September really turned out to be the inverse of what one might ordinarily expect, more like June. I suspect the month finishes essentially normal in the means, which this month was anything but.
Also interesting how June and September were acutely dry for most of the region, in such contrast to July and August. Strange days indeed.
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I definitely see some recent similarities to the 1994-95 winter patter locally and the active, long track tropical season of 1995. That said, I also feel like stating that places an emphasis on what I might prefer to see and ignores almost every potentially dissimilar data point, and surely they all matter.
I think 95/96 is remembered fondly not just for the frequent and intense bouts of cold and snow, but the fact that when it wasn't cold/snow it was usually sunny and 65*F. That winter truly had something for everyone. And it was basically non stop from November 1 right into April.
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Dulles was a staggering -8 or so departure for the first 12 days of September, and increasingly looks like a lock to finish the month in the + departure category.
LR progs for early October are all over the place run to run.
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On 9/11/2017 at 0:56 PM, RIC_WX said:12Z GFS indicates summer could make triumphant rerturn the second half of September, and could stick around awhile
...fast forward 8 days and still looks like endless summer into early October. Good thing this pattern held off until mid September, if it had set up in August would be sweat city.
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12Z GFS indicates summer could make triumphant rerturn the second half of September, and could stick around awhile
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Moved to my present location in May of 2010, and the 16/17 winter is the only one I would grade as "F". 13/14 was clearly the best. 15/16 gets low marks for having to run the AC on Christmas Day (never had to do that in 30+ christmases in Richmond) but offset entirely by the single largest snowfall of my life a month later. At least these events are memorable.
I believe 16/17 deserves a special designation as it basically was devoid of any resemblance to winter. It wasn't cold, it didn't snow, there was virtually no ice or winter storm of any kind outside of one mid December event; we had numerous stretches of weeks at a time where it was hard to tell if simply delayed onset of indian summer or early spring. It's been at least 25 years since I have seen anything even close to this, in any location. Relative to normals for where I live today, I suspect this is probably amongst the mildest winter of my lifetime, as I don't think the early 1990's winters were as mild here as they were for points south.
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So many ex...planations in this thread. The reality is the long range forecasts almost universally predicted this winter would be front loaded. And it was. The problem was the front loaded period sucked, but it was still closest to average. January and February were far worse. Now we are merely waiting for the cold finish. Fast forward 60 days and the resultant wx is probably very similar in absolute terms this week, except more cold rain and less snow.
Let's hope summer ends on time. No doubt it will be hot enough in the meantime.
October Banter 2020
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Yes, but forecasting Garrett is gotta be a whole nother world compared to the rest of their CWA during winter especially. I hope they are up for it. And it's not like LWX has all of MD after the change, AKQ has all of the lower eastern shore.