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RIC_WX

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Posts posted by RIC_WX

  1. 29 minutes ago, IronTy said:

    Oh yeah, that bad?  I'm having a hard time getting the realtor for the land to even call me back   business must be too good   I just got pricing back for plans on our "modest" 1700sqft log cabin we plan on building and it was $900K.  Not including land.  Gimme a break, we really need a stock market crash and soon so these builders come back down to reality.  They're drunk on power. Rising interest rates should help us all pretty soon.   

    If you can put in a little sweat equity and have patience you might be able to get away with about half that investment but it won’t come quickly.  Land is really affordable if you don’t have a lake view / lake access, but I would not invest what you’ve been quoted unless I had a proper lot to build it on.  Happy to compare notes in PM if interested on what I built in 20-21 in Swanton.

  2. 33 minutes ago, IronTy said:

    That's 5ft of snow. Like Sierra Nevada type shit.  Buying the cabin land a year too late...  My goal is to have to buy one of those super fancy tracked snowblowers. 

    If you are buying the land this year and expect a cabin next year, you better get hustling.  Ain’t nothing moving fast at the lake.  Ask me how I know.

  3. 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    History/climo says a flip to warm and early end to winter.

    2000 looms large

    Maybe a every other month flip starting with November?  would be a punting of february with a return in March, almost certainly favoring DC and points west vs. the south and east jackpot zones observed at least earlier in January, and potentally later this week.

  4. 10 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

    Roads were pretty dicey back to Swanton from Wisp, lots of drifting. Had to go the back way around north glade road because a bunch of cars ended up in the ditch near Red Barn Inn. Hoping 219 North to 68 is a little better. 

    That’s a nasty curve on a sunny day.  My place is a half mile up N Glade from there.

  5. 2 hours ago, nj2va said:

    Winds have shifted in Garrett County.  Temp down to 39 from an earlier high of 42.  Might end as snow out there.

    Another gutter flusher today.  I don’t know how they escape flood warnings there is water everywhere you look and every stream is at its bank.  I guess everything reverts to frozen brick status overnight.

    I went from 26*at 6AM to 42* by 8:30 this morning.  I now see the other side of the mountains held the CAD most of the day.

     

  6. 11/6 Swanton.  Windy AF, in the negative single digits consistently.  Upslope cranking with the sun trying to shine through.

    We did not hit the high end totals here but too windy to be confident in any measurement.  I am estimating around 6".  No doubt much heavier totals close by in WV, this was their event if you ask me.

    Bonus, for the first time all season it feels like legit deep winter here.

     

    • Like 2
  7. 2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

    00z HRRR says Winchester has 0.2” on the ground one minute from now…oops

    4 hours in and being generous...only about 2.5" here.  Radar looks super juicy to the SW but at the speed this is moving, we need some 1" per hour rates or we are not going to meet potential here.

    Wind is 0.0.  Dead calm.  How often you see that during precip here?

    • Like 1
  8. 36 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

    28/12 Swanton, Cloudy. 

    Radar starting to fill in here but air is too dry.  Winds have slacked off considerably since about 10A or so.

    First WSW at this location.  LFG!

    26/16 now with SN-

    • Like 2
  9. 2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

    Awesome, glad you're out there for this!  We're home unfortunately.  Enjoy this storm and post pictures!

    Thank you.  I am glad you enjoyed Monday back east, where I got fringed at JYO.  Looking forward to a better outcome this time.

    • Like 1
  10. 1 hour ago, Ji said:

    Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

    I would bet January has at least one stretch that relative to average, is an order of magnitude bad beyond anything we have seen so far.  January 1950 / 2002 style.  Some years are just this way, and a lot of signs this is one of them.  This sure seems like a less bold prediction that winter somehow snaps back with a vengeance in the second half.

    The rotten pattern is remarkably stable. Only positive I see is it locked in early and with a little luck it relents somewhat that we could manage a decent finish in February / March.  Somewhat difficult to imagine current pattern sustaining itself that long, but equally difficult to see it breaking down anytime soon.

  11. 56 minutes ago, nj2va said:

    I made the same comment to my partner as we stopped at the Shop n Save on 219 when we got here last night.  Just a terrible winter thus far for the ski resorts, especially this week when they typically do a sizable portion of their winter business.  

    I’ve probably gotten like 5-6” for the season, most of which fell before Wisp actually opened.  At this rate, they’ll easily break the record for the lowest snowfall which is in the low 50s (1942). 

    The only hope is that the Pacific stops being a dumpster fire quickly and they can salvage MLK and President’s weekends.  

    Don't worry.  If winter fails there is always spring.  Today it's kinda hard to tell the difference.  

    I could see March being the snowiest month of the winter here (and elsewhere).

  12. 1 hour ago, nj2va said:

     a dreadful start to the season for the ski resorts.  

     

    Appears the temperature rises above freezing on Friday AM and may remain there for...?

    I feel terrible for WISP as next week is basically make or break for the season.  I am sure they would rather flush the first 2 weeks of January compared to the last week of December, given the chance.

    • Sad 1
  13. 12Z GEFS continues to trend warmer in the medium range (next week) and has more or less eliminated the modest cold anomalies previously indicated for NE that maybe could have expanded and bled south.

    Irrespective of what the long range progs suggest here, the pattern out west remains remarkably stable through the end of the run.  

    • Like 1
  14. 17 minutes ago, Ji said:

    never bet against a la nina pattern in a la nina lol.

    There are years where one factor cannot singlehandedly overwhelm the equation.  This is not one of them.

    Eventually this pattern breaks down, hopefully with meaningful time left on the clock.  Climate change or not, historically bad patterns exist in the data set (94-95, 01-02) and sometimes spawn spectacular reversals 12 months later. 

    Until something changes, break out the shorts.

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