RCNYILWX

Ninja'd [emoji23] Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Euro ensembles look great, as good as it usually gets at this lead time in a 51 member ensemble. Multiple big dog type hits for here to northern IN and southern lower Michigan, an increase from previous run. Only counted 2 or 3 near shutouts for northern IL. Finally, distinct LE signal for southern Lake Michigan in the mean, which is impressive this far out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yep the Thursday piece is important too, so it's good to see that weaker on Euro and UKMET. Also, would not be unusual at all to have the southern wave come in slower. Liking the ingredients for this setup a lot, just need them to come together as well as possible.

Noteworthy improvements aloft, stronger and neutrally tilted southern wave and less confluence to the north from the PV lobe. If we can hold back the confluence even more, you can get to a Ukie like solution just with the strength of the southern stream wave, as it would have a better chance of going negative tilt and cutting more north. Latent heat release from such a juiced southern wave could also increase ridging out ahead of it. Edit: I bet we see an increase in amped more Ukie like EPS members on 00z EPS.

UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive. Main wave goes negative tilt and closes off at h5, resulting in STL to IND surface low track. Great example of the caution needed for this scenario this far out and that pretty much all options still on the table. Also a great example of the ceiling of this setup if everything comes together right, though that surface low track would not be good the farther south and east you get. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Here's the IL zoom map for the 00z UKMET qpf. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Great look. I'm doing long term part of forecast next 2 days at LOT. Should be fun. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The miss south risk is real for sure, but I like the possibility of getting a deeper system farther north at this vantage point. Going to be a really good thermal gradient to work with. Also, projected teles show a pretty close to neutral PNA around the time of the system. Look on the ensembles suggests that the fast Pacific flow could be of benefit to us in the PNA behaving like a RNA with Pac trough dumping into southwest and pumping heights east. At the same time, we'll have a big -EPO ridge and -AO but not a strongly -NAO (ensembles are showing neutral or weakly negative east based -NAO) that would force a bigger suppression risk. The good news too is that if we miss the first potential threat looks like we'll have at least a few more opportunities beyond that. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Euro had a run a few days ago that had the higher totals farther north. In general, it did a better job getting halfway decent accums into the metro even with the run to run variance and closer with the northward extent to what is verifying. Can say the same for the FV3 and GGEM and RGEM at longer leads as has been established. The op GFS did a horrific job through and through. The NAM was as it turns out too affected by dry air, it wasn't bad with mass features. I've noticed that the NAM is very binary when affected by dry air. Even if soundings show what look like snow all the way down to a fairly shallow dry layer, it severely cuts or even removes snow accums. In the case of the north end cutoff, what it showed wasn't unrealistic but just too far south based off mass features like h5 and slp track etc. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

EPS still looks really good moving forward. Not many members suppressed next weekend like 12z Euro op run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Did you report to my office (LOT) with that total? Really impressive for this early in event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

-SN and already a light coating here in southeast Naperville near DuPage/Will border. We should be in decent shape given the duration of this system. Had fairly low expectations earlier and been thinking an inch or two tops. But now I feel pretty good about hitting the range (3-4") my office forecast for this area, and at least getting into 2-3" range. Hoping for more, though small flake size this far north could be an issue. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

As previous post just mentioned, pretty sizable bump north from Euro vs 00z run. I had been liking roughly I-90 corridor in northern IL for sharp cutoff, but not sure now. Aside from the NAMs, GFS, and high res wrfs, most of the 12z guidance today held or bumped north. Feeling better about not being north of the cutoff here.

Pivotal wx 00z fv3 kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z FV3 Kuchera map from COD. Will post from Pivotal when it comes out far enough. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Very solid run all the way into OH. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yeah, true, was more pointing out relative to same latitude zone farther west why the same huge totals aren't expanding east and narrower area of decent totals. Looks possibly more mesoscale banding driven farther east just eyeballing it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL. Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower slightly less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow. Edit: still as Buckeye and others have noted, an improvement from previous runs.

You'd like the 00z GEFS mean much more. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Pretty close (just slightly less) to 18z run in heart of metro but as you said a razor sharp northern edge. I'd take a couple inches and run up here. Just don't want to be north of that northern edge. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

6"+ amounts are realistic. The moisture plume this system will have to tap into is pretty impressive for a snow system. Euro has been showing a brosd area of 0.6-0.7"+ precipitable waters, and usually 0.5" or 0.6" pwat or more are good for heavy snow combined with other favorable factors.

Kuchera map from Pivotal Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z Euro ensemble definitely ticked up as well vs. 12z run. GFS suite still decidedly less enthused with this system, 06z run more so than 00z run. Far enough out that all options still on the table. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I've been involved in putting together the local winter outlooks for LOT since winter 2010-11, but the learning never stops. Just from reading knowledgeable LR posters on this sub, some on New England sub (Coastal and ORH to name a few) and Isotherm, Don S etc, I've learned a ton the past few years about LR forecasting. If I may do some cross forum promoting, the technical threads (teleconnections and strat forecasting) on 33andrain.com have some excellent material, though some of it is way over my head still. Our own OHweather has started making some posts over at 33andrain. Definitely worth a read. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Because this winter has very closely followed the progression of 2006-07 thus far, my hope is that continues since February 07 was a good month. I'd imagine thoughts on the forums back then were similar about what a terrible winter that was until then and losing hope that it would improve. It's very easy to lean on persistence when it's been bad for so long and assume that improvements in the extended range will never come to fruition. It's been a frustrating winter thus far, but ultimately I think it makes sense in hindsight that the significant pattern change that occurred in December to fast Pacific flow/predominantly +EPO has taken longer to erode than expected. Changes are occurring, the AO has finally gone negative and looks to stay negative as effects of the SSW increase in the troposphere. The western ridge will roll over next week and bring another mild up, but hopefully the end of the 00z Euro op was sniffing out this being more brief. There is very good consensus from the long range pros I'm reading that the strong agreement in -EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern shown in long range on ensembles is likely to unfold this time. Will not hold any illusions that it means a snowy pattern because it can certainly be a cold and dry look for at least some of us, but I'd gamble with cold since we've had essentially none for a month. Hopefully we at least get into a clipper pattern and some opportunities at IL side and extreme NW Indiana LES. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk