yoda

Updated afternoon HWO:

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers or thunderstorms through midday Tuesday may be capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an
isolated tornado. The best chance of severe weather appears to be
between 7 AM and 1 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.

Going with 1058 tornadoes this year... first high risk in OK/TX April 3rd

Afternoon AFD from LWX about tomorrow severe storms potential:

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday. High
pressure then builds over the area Tuesday night through Friday
morning then shifts offshore this weekend as another frontal
system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...Heights will begin to fall
quickly tonight as mid-level closed low over the middle of the
country lifts newd into the Great Lks region. As a result,
strengthening warm and moisture advective pattern will result in
a sig increase in showers late tonight into Tue morning. Models
are showing strong forcing (200-meter/12 hr height falls) over
the area with PWATs rising to around to 1.5 inches or 250 to 400%
of normal. In addition, wind fields will also strengthen with
models showing 850 mb and 500 mb winds of 50kt and 80 kt
respectively. With the substantial increase in winds and
moisture, there will be potential for t-storms late tonight into
Tue morning (09Z-15Z time frame). Stability indices and the
SHRB (high shear/low cape parameter) suggest potential for
severe t-storms given up to 500 J/kg of CAPE and strong wind
fields just above the surface with a line of showers
accompanying sfc cdfnt. Biggest threat for severe t-storms is
east of the U.S. Route 15 corridor in the 09-15Z time frame.
Cdfnt will push east of the Ches Bay by 18Z with showers ending,
but over the Appalachians the showers will continue and turn
into snow showers.

1730z SPC OTLK introduces MRGL risk for Blue Ridge and east... chance for isolated damaging winds and brief TOR

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And remember - these things like to be a bit earlier than expected...so timing probably isn't great for max threat. 

True, but there will already be DPs in  the 50s and southerly winds feeding in the warm air.  Its not a high threat, but we could still see a few isolated reports

12z NAM soundings still signal the threat for a few STWs and perhaps a TW or two tomorrow late morning into very early afternoon

11 hours ago, yoda said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a few STWs Tuesday morning or even a TW looking at the 00z NAM soundings across the area 

10 hours ago, high risk said:

    agree with this.    strong deep-layer shear profile in place (limited low-level shear) with some heating ahead of a possible narrow midday squall line

From the Jan Disco thread on page 21

Good to see you all getting some more decent snows... just have it include us some more next time

Good luck down there all... Hope you get some decent snows

This thread will have a drought of posts

Tornado warning up by RIC metro

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Think I'll stay up for the EURO to crush my dreams.

Where do you guys go to view the UKMET? The meteocentre site I have only goes out to 72 hours. Doesn't it go out to 120?

Meteocentre goes out to 144... but precipitation and h5 only goes out to 72

00z UKIE at 96 is basically sitting over OBX... then moves slowly away to the east at 120 as it is weakening

Maria puts on the brakes at 120 and by 132 is moving NE as its being kicked out to sea... but Outer Banks definitely were hit this run

Meanwhile... 00z GFS is getting quite close to OBX at 108...

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z ECMWF should come West, the trough coming into the Plains is much flatter, similar to what the 12z GFS showed. And this run also shows a faster dissipation of Jose, leading to a quicker rebuild of the WAR. 

It's debatable if any of this even matters or if we're just delaying the inevitable, however it wouldn't take much more of a Westward trend in order to get OBX into play.

Doesn't look like it... 96 to 120 Maria is moving due north

and 144 says goodbye... so no westward movement from 12z EURO

We can take a good chuckle at the 12z GGEM which decides this run to make landfall near OBX

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.

 

It shouldn't be aggravating at all... Maria isn't coming to visit the US.  There is nothing to bring it that far west, and just about all reliable models recurve Maria a good 300 miles out to sea

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So on Wednesday Maria actually makes a turn towards the West. The trough building into the Northern plains is being held back more. I think eventually it's going to win out and kick Maria OTS, but it could get closer to the coast than previous runs.

And back NE it goes at 156

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Jose is weaker this run and dissipates faster. As you can see here, the tiny leftover weakness appears to be less. I'm not sure if that will make enough of a difference or if it's just noise.

lol Maria is already moving NE by 96

12z EURO - 192 still sitting off the MA coast by 200 miles or so... not a large amount of movement between 168 and 192.. gets booted NE by the trough and out toward Nova Scotia at 216

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is OTS. If that trough coming through the lakes days 6-8 is true, then it's game over.

lol

The 12z GGEM brings Maria into the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area at 144

From the 11pm Hurricane Maria disco from NHC... a quick factoid:

The minimum pressure
estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth
lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane.

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...100 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...OUTER EYEWALL OF MARIA LASHING ST. CROIX...

A sustained wind of 90 mph (144 km/h) with a wind gust to 127 mph
(204 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake