12z GFS is so F’ng close here. Verbatim, the column goes below freezing by 06z. Then between 06z and 12z… 0.87” of QPF falls as presumably snow.
Edit: looking closer the column is frozen closer to 03z. From 03z to 12z ~1.4” of QPF falls.
These are the type of systems where 9 times out of 10 you leave them underwhelmed because the models printed out 12”+ and you ended up with 3” because sleet, crappy rates, etc.