Chrisrotary12

Pinging in Nashua now

Just now, DomNH said:

Really have no idea if I'll wake up to 6-7'' of pure concrete and no power tomorrow or 3'' of crud. At least it looks like things improve pretty quickly in the morning. Cautiously optimistic my 3 pm out of MHT will survive. 

Just told my neighborhood chat this too. 0-16”

Car thermometer:

Nashua: 39 rain

Manchester: 37 rain maybe a few something else

We mist here. Winds slowly starting to bump up. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Asking again,  any insight into new Rapid Refresh @OceanStWx

Say what? Lol

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW HRRR has trended colder overall since 6z. Most noticeable borderline areas and just over the MA/NH/VT border.

12z GFS is so F’ng close here. Verbatim, the column goes below freezing by 06z. Then between 06z and 12z… 0.87” of QPF falls as presumably snow. 
 

Edit: looking closer the column is frozen closer to 03z. From 03z to 12z ~1.4” of QPF falls. 

I can’t figure out how to do it on mobile, but 00z GFS snow depth change on pivotal looks very reasonable to me. 

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Euro seems kind of flaccid on QPF compared to other guidance. Really nothing over about an inch and a half for the frozen zones with lots of 1.2ish totals. 

With 700mb in upstate NY this is what I’m expecting. 

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah seemed a little aggressive but what do I know. It's such a fragile setup at a time of year where fragile is tough. GFS is a good example of how it could happen but everything is going to have to break just right. 18z HRRR is a good example of the opposite. ML warmth + inconsistent rates + April solar insolation = 1-2'' of meh. Going to need to absolutely fooking pound consistently overnight to achieve warning snows. 

Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Gun to weenie I'd go 2-4'' here.

Gun to weenie:

1/2” of sleet <- 8p to 12a 
3-4” of snow <- 12a to 8a
Drizzle on Thursday
Occasional snow shower Thursday & Friday

3 hours ago, DomNH said:

Surprised GYX went straight to warnings here. 

Warnings for sleet & slush? If it doesn’t pound from midnight to 6am. We busted. 

31 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Euro blows. Bunch of sleet to a crusty inch before it dries out.

Looks reasonable. 

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is me "doing it" BTW, in case anyone hasn't realized.

Don’t! Sleet and slot will make for a let down. Stay the course. 1-3” of slop/cement. 

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thunder sleet still on the table. 

Hope we get lase rates like this in the next few months

Breaking news: we won’t.

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

This storm is the textbook definition of Nowcasting, and also why a vast majority of us probably got into the hobby. Weird systems are fun systems

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

These are the type of systems where 9 times out of 10 you leave them underwhelmed because the models printed out 12”+ and you ended up with 3” because sleet, crappy rates, etc. 

Have to appreciate the NWS forecast for ASH: 

Low: 0

Expected < 1

High: 11

On a personal note: these two eclipses could not have been more poorly timed for me. 
2017: just married and broke as hell

2024: baby #1, broke as hell and new job. 
 

guess I’ll have to travel the world for the next one. 

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yes I know lol I just feel like our ceiling is going to be maybe 2-4’’ of slush tomorrow night. 

This is what I’m currently thinking as well. 

Question: when y’all referring to the MA/NH border….. the 0-200’ ASL part or the 1,000’ above ASL part? Lol

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something is amiss with the NARCAN lol

 

Centimeters?

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The next layer i can see is 925mb, I cant see south of either of those

Isn’t the issue up near 700?

Not sure if it was posted, but Pivotal has a cool Eclipse page. https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/

"Euro isn't the king it was" is just fodder for when the Euro doesn't show what you want. If Euro were printing out the GGEM right now, y'all would love it.

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

This is laughable

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06z GFS is actually a sleet bomb too.

What if no one sees the solar eclipse?