MD Snow

15 minutes ago, jayyy said:

False. Back end changeovers rarely happen. Front end WAA thumps before the CAD erodes happen here frequently.  Christmas 01 I believe is like the only major back end thump I can think of and I was in New York for it. Driving rain to 13” of snow on the back end in 6 hours time. A rarity indeed. 

Cool bro. I honestly don’t think we have much of a chance of either. NAM is already showing more phasing of streams at 12z. However, the strong arctic front would at least give some credence to a back end changeover. By thump I mean changeover because like you say we rarely ever do back end thumps. 

Just now, PhineasC said:

The NAM blows, but wasn't it first to sniff out the last storm being much more north and wetter than the globals?

NAM does well in a pattern where everything is wound up and wet.

It was. 

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I agree. The infamous back-end snows often disappoint, but I can recall some cases where it surprised everyone. The models will not be able to get it right until very close in. Zero chance the GFS and Euro have it figured out now. They are still moving the major pieces hundreds of miles every six hours.

At this point, I think we have an equal chance of a front end thump to a back end changover. 

9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Euro is much quicker than the rest of the models with the storm's arrival.  Has my area snowing by midday on Saturday.

It did slow down more though on it’s 6z run. 

I believe the snow maps that are being posted for our area still include tomorrow nights event on them. No? Shave an inch or so off...

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

In the back of my mind I'm beginning to think Bob is doing the reverse psychology thing

Totally. He wrote off January and a week later we’re tracking a snowstorm. He pretty much wrote off the weekend deal yesterday and it immediately started trending  more favorably. 

We still have a solid 24hrs for some semi major changes with this thing. 

Hard to tell exactly from the noaa site but the fv3 appears to be improved as well. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM looks solid for an inch... maybe two

Also bullseyed just south of DC for the third straight run. 

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Non joking post...

I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing.  When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived.

Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that.

If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). 

 

...i just remember what certain people were saying just 12 days ago about our prospects for the rest of January....

1 minute ago, Ji said:

despite seeing 32 straight hours of snow...anyone staying up till midnight for this snow shower?

You bet I am! 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Missed 12z guidance for this threat but 18z nams look plenty cold up here ....around 27 at precip start . 

Yeah, if we can get this thing to juice up a bit over the next 48hrs it could be a decent little advisory level event for the whole sub-forum. 

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Not too shabby. Subfreezing for the duration of the event (with temps Thursday only reaching low 30s), but sub 10:1 ratios. 

 

NAM again bullseyes south of DC with the highest amount...

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This will not cut

Yeah, and remember rule #963 from the weenie handbook...the 12z Euro always follows the 12z ukie...

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't overlook the rule of thumb with slp passing to our NW. It won't be pretty dendrites and will create challenges with surface temps. I do think some will see accum snow out of the deal. My yard will probably be too far south/warm for much accums

So would you say the NAM’s and CMC are wrong with areas south of DC getting 2”?

26 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not sure it’s wet enough for .4, or even .3” qpf. I think .2 is probably max.

Agreed as it stands now. However, a slightly stronger system and areas north and west could pile up and get that 3-4” easy with central Maryland in a solid 1-3”.

12z cmc gets snow almost down to the nc/va border. Positive trends at 12z for keeping most of the forum snow. If we can just get a solid precip shield to move through I think you could get a 2-4” surprise snowfall region wide with this one. 

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

12z Nam coming in much flatter and south.  Congrats EZF?

6z was congrats ezf...

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

6Z EPS mean improved from 0Z, mean snowfall is 1-2 for DC and 2-4 for the most of Maryland, I can't see the individual members though.  

That’s good. Could be a decent little event. HP is not in an ideal position but it’s also not terrible. Majority of precip comes at night. Amazing how if this event was coming last week at this point, this thread would be like 30 pages...

What does the GEFS/EPS look like for this event?  Any higher end solutions? 

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now we're talkin

That is a big run right there. First global to go big on the coastal enhancement idea. 

At hr 14 you can already see improvements at h5. 

Both the ICON and CMC op have snow in the area Monday morning from the ULL pass. 

Sunday evening....

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We're awful close to just using ops now. Some of the storm is beyond 72 hours but the utility of ens will be over @ 12z today imho. 12z ops should be given the most weight. 

So what would be your response if the 12z ensembles were split between a larger coastal solution for our area and a miss to the south like they have been showing? 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

GFS made no friends in the upper levels. It's hard to distinguish between noise and trends though. 

Agreed. When we get close to game time we take a 25-50 mile switch in precip shield as a trend when in the grand scheme of things it's just noise. This was not a good run but let's wait to see 12z GEFS, GEPS and EPS before talking trends.