powderfreak

Mountain at 8” on cam. Ripping snow.

I was wrong. This mid level band has gone nuts. Fluff factor under this strong lift has been great. Outside of the deeper lift, it’s sand… but in the band, this is fluff.

Up to 5”, nice mesoscale band. I poo-poo’ed the fluff factor but this mid level lift is getting it done.

Paging @CoastalWx tomorrow.

Mid-level banding may save us up here. The lift seems to be at 700-600mb.

Enjoying the images... well documented guys. 3" up here so far, hoping for 7-12". 1 degree outside.

Yeah for sure, I'm fine with any snowfall and its fun to get in on this storm. Sometimes I just get gun shy of 10-20" forecasts on like 0.75" water. Though the soundings are ideal... the DGZ is super deep. As long as the air is saturated it should be larger flakes... which is intensity driven. As soon as the rates diminish, that arctic air wants to dry up a bit. I mean, the whole column is essentially in that -12C to -18C zone up to 500mb (18,000ft).

This is awesome observation/analysis to get during a storm! So varying from 9:1 to 18:1? I think that seems reasonable… maybe averaging out around a 14:1 if it alternates between arctic sand at lower reflectivities to 20:1 fluff under better banding when the column is fully saturated.

Yeah moderate snow at 1/-2 here. Those QPF amounts down in SNE are nuts for a cold storm in 6-hours.

ORH ASOS with 0.92” precip in 6 hours at like 6F is awesome. 3+ hours of 0.18”/hr at these temps is wild.

I mean, the QPF has been rock solid for almost two days now. 0.60-0.90” pretty much area wide in NNY, C/NVT and NNH. A 12-14:1 ratio math puts that as a 7-13” event. A 18:1 ratio is 11-16”. I’d lean on the lower end of the ratios…a tick above 10:1 but less than 15:1.

Hell yeah man!

Love the photos… distinct lack of photos too from most of this heavy snowfall. Time to document it.

Yeah call me a Debbie but I’m thinking 8-12” for the mountains and local areas. We’ll see but I envision 10” on like 0.75” water with 14:1 ratios when all is said and done. It’s usually baking powder at these temps and banking on 20:1 ratios makes me uncomfortable forecasting… especially with a dry arctic air mass lurking around the surface and just north of us. I’d take QPF and go 12-14:1 to figure it out.