powderfreak

You’re thinking about it too binary though. It affects everywhere. But you keep saying “if location X gets a snowstorm, then it must not be happening there.” And if someone says it’s happening here, they mean zero snow. Maybe for one region it decreases the chances by 10%… for another area they have already low chances of snow so it decreases chances by a percentage point or two. But there’s always a percentage chance the storms happen. It’s like a sliding scale and changing the probabilities. It’s not a binary yes or no.

Already recovered 26 degrees by 10:30am here… -13F to 13F.

Yeah for sure, not the most impressive compared to upper 20s to low 30s below zero C, but that would be a noteworthy afternoon. It would fit the bill for this stretch of noteworthy cold but nothing even close to record books high-end memorable cold.

This looks chilly on Saturday for 1pm in the afternoon. 925mb at -23C to -24C all the way to the Long Island Sound. SFC at 1pm Sat.

Like an injured fawn limping through a field while a wolf salivates from the wood line.

That’s a good point. I’m not super familiar with Lake George but it’s weird it froze behind schedule, given most other lakes seemed ahead of normal or with larger than normal ice extent. I do know that area is gusty and downslopes on NW flow off the southeastern Adirondacks… was just spitballing for ideas as to why it could be delayed. A lot of wind would lead to more mixing and upwelling, and the water surface is rarely calm.

Yup! That was brutal going to and from classes all month. And BTV doesn’t do calm cold, the wind is always blowing up there on the hill. Those were rugged days.

-9F Not bad with OVC029… but we left a bunch on the table the past two nights with wind and/or clouds.

There’s nuance to everything… and CC is a charged term that leads to a visceral reaction more than other factors. One could imagine a situation where a variety of factors influence the rate of something occurring, but doesn’t stop it from happening all together. The debate of “no coastal storms anymore due to fast flow and CC” vs “its snowing in the deep south on the coast” is severely lacking in nuance on both sides. It’s binary thinking that ignores context and oversimplifies the issues at hand for both points of the argument.

Been a while since we’ve seen 20 degrees it seems like.

Sun angle is ever so slightly higher than it was yesterday .

Yeah car was covered this morning in the very small flake Arctic upslope stuff this morning… where it feels like the flakes are forming like 500 feet overhead.

That is weird. Lake Erie by contrast has the most ice in late January in like three decades and is almost fully covered. Wonder if the persistent NW flow causes a lot of wind there and water movement at Lake George?

-3F Never cleared, never went calm, haze and very small crystals suspended in the air. This radiator did not mount up.

Is that 128F by NYC? lol. I’m assuming it’s two sites next to each other.