That October 2011 event makes you remember when "snow maps" were still a new thing, and Met offices didn't know how to use them exactly, especially in the shoulder seasons. "Dumb guy snow output" ended up being too low.
HWO
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON
SATURDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER STORM
WATCH. WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY
From AFD
THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER
TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ
AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS
SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN
CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD