powderfreak

I figure some of you will appreciate the obsessive anal-retentive details of snow reporting on Mansfield... Yesterday we had 1.75" or so that we called 2"... then it snowed a bit overnight... but was very windy and the grooming team thought several inches fell. The snow cam went off-line briefly around the time of the morning report and it was called 2" more overnight for a 24-hour total of 4". Snow cam came back and only had just over 3". Say 3.1" or 3.2". The early reports on the hill from skinners was 4-5". It actually looked good (photo from friend JA). However, once we got to High Road, we saw that was also a wind-blown 3" (barely, if you got level with the snowpack). The funny part is that folks on the hill thought at least 4" was a good number and were trying to talk us into it. However, the argument is if you have multiple source points saying 3".... maybe it is just 3". And we removed an inch from the snow report and Stowe seasonal total to reflect an accurate total, from 114" to 113" after considering the evidence. This hobby is like an exhibit in OCD, ha. The good news is the snow depth is still stout and only compacted about 7” at the 3,000ft level.

Nope haha, it’s just struck me as hilarious for some reason. Like here everyone is trying to get snow for Xmas and “nahh, I’ll pass on the Xmas eve whitening.” There might be too much salt. He could find a pile of shit to step in at August National.

Jesus Christ dude .

Yeah, Mansfield depth dropped a healthy 10" but really just the air came out of the fluff. Couple inches of new snow up there after the changeover. Snowpack looked fine leaving at 5pm with a coating at 1,500ft. Dropped down to 4th deepest depth for the date since 1954, ha. Nice to have a thaw result in "falling" to a still top-5 snow depth.

Tuesday into Wednesday could be a nice refresh. Euro has liked WxWatcher to here to you.

I think Henry is realizing it’s not super profitable to own sports teams. The value is tied to selling the team, not in operating it. That 2004 winning payroll was like the equivalent of $200mm payroll in today’s present dollars. He’s a businessman, not a competitor unfortunately. It definitely sucks.

The ear turn gets me every time. “Is that TauntonBlizz’s keyboard I hear again?”

1” at the plot, plus some wind really filled in the turns above that elevation today. It was a dense inch, but not wet, and that leads to some smooth skiing. Its too bad this multi-week stretch has to end.

Ok, I see your point, ha. I was thinking "big" in terms of QPF/snowfall totals, as opposed to big in terms of publicity or large scale synoptic events. That mid-November one was a solid 7-15" event, even in the valleys around the mountains, while 15-25" at elevation of 1-2" QPF. That was the type I was thinking of... but absolutely nothing of the widespread region wide news worthy storms. I get your point there. I guess what's more eye-opening is the local area wide like 7-12" of QPF since November 1 to now... while maintaining solidly below normal temperatures, if not very below normal temperatures (like -10F so far in December). To have 55-60" of snow depth contain 13" of water is pretty wild to me... because that pack started right around November 1st. So in roughly 6 weeks, that 3,000ft elevation AVERAGED just over 2" of QPF per week, most of it in the form of snow. That's damn impressive, but I guess that's also how you get to record numbers. I do wish we were able to sample individual event SWE/QPF in the higher elevations, as sometimes I do think I conceptually under-estimate just how much precip falls up there in these type of upslope patterns. Many of the November snows that left nearly 70" (measured in a controlled, single spot) on Mount Mansfield during the month felt like they were all there in terms of SWE. That wasn't upslope fluff. Sure there were some endings of fluff and some mixed in, but there were some real healthy dense snowfalls of rimed flakes, graupel, ect even at colder temperatures. I often look at the Alta Collins plot as my gold standard, and often note that for all the hype Utah gets for fluffy snow, they get their share of orographic QPF dumps where its like 12" on 1.50" water. Or even 24" snow on like 3.00" water. I think the local mountains had their share of that type of snow in November, which really boosted base depths and led to that amazing skiing... the type of cold but dense (rimed and graupel) driven snow that can sustain significant skier traffic and hold up fine. Overall, turning a new page after tomorrow as it'll be the first time in like 3 weeks the mountains have sniffed above freezing temperatures and rain. There was one brief rain event around Thanksgiving, that was then covered up almost immediately with more cold, but dense, upslope... and with that brief thaw, the mountains are running like a solid month, or more, of being on a snow and cold heater. Definitely a legendary start and one of yore.

Love seeing the snow cores making it into the AFD. .HYDROLOGY... Sharp rises on streams and rivers are anticipated on Friday into Friday night associated with warm temperatures, snow melt, and moderate rainfall. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 is expected with snow melt adding another 0.75 to 1.25 inches into the river basins. Given dewpoints will be above freezing during the day today and tomorrow, efficient snow melt will be likely. Snow core analysis Tuesday near Mt Mansfield indicated at 3000 feet snow depths were 53 to 58 inches with 12 to 14 inches of water, while at 1550 feet snow depths were 22 to 30 inches with 5 to 7 inches of water. The rivers with greatest potential to reach action stage, given expected rainfall and snow melt are the Ausable, Mad, Winooski at Essex Junction, and Otter Creek at Center Rutland on Friday afternoon and evening. Crests on the Mad and Ausable Rivers will be Friday afternoon, and Otter Creek and the Winooski cresting closer to Friday evening/early Saturday morning. Lastly, while any river ice may move, the threat of ice jams remains low. 3,000ft High Road Plot… 1500ft Barnes Camp…

Never saw any rain up at 1500ft that I could tell. Snowing now with a dusting of white at 33F.

While I agree greatly about the fact that temperatures have been a key driver of this stretch, I will push back slightly on the no big storms for the mountains. Maybe I'm thinking more in terms of cycles, but we've had at least two 20"+ "cycles" over say a 2-3 day period. I do think the upper elevations of 3,000ft+ are wearing the brunt of the positive snowfall departures over the valleys too. Often we see in synoptic seasons like 2007-2008, the valley locations under 1,000ft can see just as much snow as the mountains... because it's synoptic forcing up at 700mb and above. You get a 1" QPF dump and it hits at 300ft almost the same as at 3,000ft if the temperatures are cold enough. But this stretch has been meso-scale driven and just loaded QPF and snowfall into the upper elevations non-stop. And a bunch of the early snows in November were heavy QPF events. It was elevational driven too... like when Stowe opened with 250 acres of terrain all on natural snow essentially back in mid-November, my backyard had next to nothing. There was a monster gradient in there for 2-3 weeks around 1,500ft. From like 1-3" to like 18"+. Which I think is seen in some of the lower elevation snowfall numbers as to why they aren't as ahead of normal as some other years... while the mountains are clearly in record territory. I do agree on the bread and butter though... despite a couple of "big events" they aren't hyped events. I think there was one Winter Storm Warning? Even Advisories have been limited for this, largely because the snow has been impacting higher elevation spots and been mesoscale in nature. The Stowe Snow Report team ran a SWE analysis yesterday for NWS/NOAA and I'll share some photos later, but we generally found 55" depth at 3,000ft High Road with 13" of water. While 1,500ft was 26" snow depth and 6" of water. Both plots were consistent at 23-24% water. 13" of water up high seemed fairly impressive for a snowpack that began roughly 6 weeks ago. That's a good slug of frozen QPF! And would check out for over 100" of snowfall.

MVL here is up to 37F and warmest of the month. -10.1 in December through this point and today might threaten to be the first day to average above normal.

It wants to snow. Another little wave moving through this evening. Persistent -SN.

What a run its been. The rainless streak is about to end for the mountains, and this one could be a solid soaker. It won't be out of the ordinary, IMO, for a cutter this time of year... but its felt like a good month since we've had a healthy cutter. Two straight weeks to start December at -10.5F departure and plentiful snow, following a cool and wet November that featured plenty of higher elevation snows. Sucks, but it wasn't going to be snowless and warm out west all season... same with it wasn't going to be cold, deep powder all season here. Once it starts to snow in the Sierra and Rockies, it will signal a change. The surface conditions are going to change in New England, but the snowpack should still be solidly above normal.