nj2va

Things have gotten a bit better for western NY over the last day. We were up in the 60s for cloud cover on NBM and it’s back down into the upper 40s/low 50s as it oscillates back and forth. I’d gamble with that.

I’m trying to decide if I want to switch from Niagara Falls to Lake Placid. I’d lose half my house rental in Niagara Falls and have to rent another place in Lake Placid. But it seems clouds will be an issue in western NY.

Miserable.

I think we're tied to that departing storm off the NE coast. I think if that moves out a bit sooner, it'd help to press that block down? With that lingering longer, it's making it possible for the next wave to undercut that ridge.

Agree and this is way more of an IMBY sport than snowfall is.

Nice to see a positive shift on the 00z GEFS for the Great Lakes area. The shortwave is further back to the west and its dropped a lot of its SLPs that were in the OH valley. And the HP ridging is extending further west. 6z is rolling in now.

It seems the longer the system in New England this week sticks around, the worse it is for the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Monday.

Hopefully someone is getting the drought thread ready the moment we hit 5 days of sun/no precip.

If things look shtty (completely cloudy) for Niagara Falls on Friday, I’m going to book something last minute in Maine/New England. We’d lose 50% of our AirB&B but I want to see the eclipse.

GFS also sucks with cloud cover so I’d gamble in WNY with that verbatim on the 18z.

Good news! Would love to see this continue. There’s some spread over the OH valley but nothing like GEFS and GEPS.

Yeah, when I looked earlier this morning at the 6z, there was a ton of spread in the midwest on the Member MSLP plots. GEPS has a similar spread in its members from last night so lots of uncertainty to work out over the next few days. I'm just hoping we can hold onto the High long enough to keep the cloud cover at the cirrus level vs low level clouds. We have an AirB&B rented in Niagra Falls (Canada side) but if its full-on cloud cover there (vs cirrus), we might head to upstate NY last minute and just suffer in the traffic afterwards.

Another step back on NBM for Western NY overnight. Cloud cover is now up into the 60% range. Workable and I’m not going to panic, but disappointing given it was in the 30% range a few days ago. Hopefully the High holds on long enough to keep the clouds from progressing east Monday afternoon.

I miss the early March weather when it was in the 70s and sunny.

Latest from NWS Buffalo. Now on the fringe of our routine forecast range, many eyes will be on Monday, when the path of totality for the highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will cut through much of our forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in good agreement on the longwave pattern early next week, with the sensible weather across our area being dry and on the warmer side, featuring high temperatures mainly in the 50s. At this range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or high clouds through the day, though whether or not these would be dense enough to obscure any view of the eclipse cannot be determined at this time. Stay tuned!

Latest model blend. Upstate NY and New England continue to look the best, followed by the MO Valley and Western NY. I’ve noticed an ever so slight increase in cloud cover forecast the last 24 hours in Buffalo. Went from 35-45% to 45-55% range. iPhone app has partly cloudy in Niagara Falls on Monday afternoon…I’d gamble with that forecast.

NWS Buffalo starting to mention the forecast in their discussion: While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud cover with any confidence or reliability.

Agree. I’d love to see a Big East vs ACC final and UConn blow them out. They are crazy good.

Let’s go UConn!

Just another spring in DC. Sigh.

He is risen!

Tomer updated his site and changed his algorithm, especially for GEFS since it sucks at cloud cover.

The cloud maps from the GFS apparently are terrible from what I was reading on X. Apparently the GEPS is the better product for cloud forecasts. But still a 9 days out so I’m just looking at 500 / MSLP maps. Cautiously optimistic for the NY/NE.

Gross

This is the best this has looked for WNY