uncle W

maybe because the planet is a little warmer the south east ridge is more significant... snowiest NYC Decembers since 1950 and indices... year....snowfall big snow..ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3...…-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...……..7.1"...…….35.7...….-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...……..8.0"...…….40.2...…..1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...……..5.0"...…….38.5...….-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...……..6.2"...…….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...……..4.5"...…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...……..4.5"...…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...……..7.2"...…….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...……..5.2"...…….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...……..4.0"...…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...……..6.8"...…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00 ................................................................................................................. 6" plus December snowfalls date...........amount...AO.........NAO.........PNA.....NDJ ONI... 12/3-4/1957.....8.0"...+0.561....-0.197.....+0.534...+1.6.....ao was rising from negative... 12/21-22/59...13.7"...+1.032...+1.291......-0.812....-0.1..... 12/11-12/60...15.2"....-0.316....-0.916.....+1.527.....0.0 12/23-24/61.....6.2"....-0.862....-2.530......-0.436....-0.2 12/23-24/63.....6.6"...+0.129....-0.103.....+1.218...+1.1.....ao was rising from negative... 12/24-25/66.....7.1"....-2.324...+0.411.....+0.686....-0.3 12/25-27/69.....6.8"....-0.971....-0.148.....+0.547...+0.7 12/27/1990......7.2"...+2.601...+1.950......-0.936...+0.4 12/19-20/95.....7.7"....-4.353....-0.774.....+0.926....-0.9 12/30/2000....12.0"....-4.115....-0.537.....+1.075....-0.8 12/5/2002.......6.0"....-1.938.....-0.479.....+0.672...+1.1 12/5-6/2003...14.0"...+0.481.....-0.197.....+0.784...+0.3 12/19-20/09...10.9"....-4.651.....-1.833.....+0.549...+1.3 12/26-27/10...20.0"....-2.886.....-1.144......-0.284....-1.4

its not often that everything falls into place like in 1995-96...sometimes you can get lucky in a mild winter...its happened three times in the last 15 years...it can get as cold as one below zero in a warm winter like Feb. 2016...1948-49 had a great second half of December coming off a warm fall...it had a few other snowstorms including a 9.4" the last day of Feb... winter.........ave temp......snowfall.....big snow...min temp... 2016-17..........39.3..............30.2"..............9.4"..........14 2015-16..........41.0..............32.8"............27.5"...........-1 2005-06..........37.3..............40.0"............26.9"...........14 1990-91..........39.2..............24.9"..............8.9"............10 1982-83..........37.9..............27.2"............17.6"............12 1948-49..........38.5..............46.6"............16.0"............10 1932-33..........37.8..............27.0"............10.0"............11

in 2017-18 it snowed almost every time the ao went negative that year...

2005-06 had a cold spell near the end of November...after a brief warm up December started out cold and snowy...it was a good two week period of wintry weather...after that there was one good week in Feb...a lot of winters are like that ...some have one good week in Dec and two good weeks in Feb...1961-62 was like that...1985-86 had two good weeks in Feb...that was it...1974-75 was like that too...

warmest Novembers in NYC... 1902...warmest till 1931...December was cold and snowy including snow Christmas day... 1931...warmest till 1948 despite 2" of snow on 11/27...biggest of that horrid winter... 1948 was the warmest November on record until 1979...Dec 19-20th 1948 had 16-19" of snow in the city...the snow lasted thru Christmas...before that storm NYC got a 5" snowfall that changed to rain...the last few days of December had flooding rains that ended as 5" of snow early New Years day...the 25" of snow in December was the second year in a row with a major storm in December... 1975...second warmest Dec before 1979... Dec got cold and there was 2" of snow on the 22nd..Christmas morning had a little snow on the ground and there was a half inch of snow in the afternoon...that changed to rain during the late evening...New Years eve had rain in the evening that turned to an inch of snow early New Years day... 1979...warmest on record at the time until 2001...there was a snowfall of 3-4" on Dec 19th....that snow was gone in a few days and Christmas was 61 degrees... 1994...December had very little snow if any... 2001...December had very little snow if any... 2006...December was warm with no snow... 2009...big snow on 12/19-20... 2011...came after a 3-5" snowstorm in October...Dec had little snow if any... 2015...warmest on record now...December was much above the record as the warmest with no snow...

I was up in Dingmans Ferry PA that day...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...I drove home when the snow stopped and there was 8" in Brooklyn...a few days later another event dropped another 1-2" in NE Jersey and as far east as Newark...the coldest snowiest week in April during the 1900's...

some years with a warmer December...cold January and warm again in February... 1996-97 1998-99 1999-00 colder January analogs... 1956-57 1984-85 1964-65 2008-09

the first six winters I was alive for was 1949-50 to 1954-55...six straight with under 20" of snowfall in NYC ...no blizzards or crippling storms during that period...the streak started after the winters of 1944-45-1948-49...The winter of 47-48 is still one of the best ever...26" storm in Dec...48-49 had a crippling storm in December too and had over 45" of snowfall....1955-56 was another light snow winter until the third week in March...March 56 had the first storm a foot or more since Dec 1948...after another lackluster winter in 1956-57 there were six of the next 12 winters that were very good to great with crippling storms...that was the best run until the 1993-94 to 2017-18 period...will we be seeing some dud years ahead?...very possible but who knows...

I don't like what's happening with the ao this month...It makes me think the first half of winter sucks if you like snow...there can always be a rogue storm but that's grasping for staws...maybe things will get better by the end of January...a positive ao does't mean it will be mild all the time...it can even be cld like in 1988 and 1975...

I don't like mixing analogs that are on the opposite side of the spectrum...2007-08 can't be mentioned in the same sentence with 1995-96...thats just me...I see Larry has some big years on that list...for the record I think the winter won't be like either of them years...I think snowfall will be near average along with temperatures...give me 59-60 and I'll be happy...

66-67 is a neutral negative but before the oni change a few years ago it was a weak la nina...QBO was similar to this year...blocking was good the first half...the warmest month was January and the ao/nao were both negative on average that month...it was a back loaded winter for us with no ao/nao blocking to speak of ... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... nao monthly numbers and lowest figure... 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 ao... 1966-67...-1.401 -0.576..1.180...1.967...-4.147...12/13

You can't beat Dec 66 for a white Christmas...you did better than we did.

the QBO was dropping from plus to minus in 1995...this year could be different...

2010-11 had a plus 10 on the QBO scale and got extreme blocking Dec and Jan...2008-09 and 2016-17 had a high QBO and both winters were good in the NYC area despite little blocking...1966-67 had a high QBO with some blocking and major snowstorms...

Atlantic City got lucky when a foot of snow fell in late February 1989...Freehold NJ got 10" in late Feb 1974...both times NYC and DCA got less than 2"...even in a bad winter some places get a big storm...DCA got an 8.4" storm on 3/9/99 while NYC got very little if any...

1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter...

none from 1950 to 1984...I dont have enso numbers before 1950 handy so I cant say how la nina years passed without a 4" snowstorm in NYC...maybe because we are still in a wetter regime...

its hard to get a snowstorm that's 4" or more in December during a la nina year...only seven years had one since 1950...mostly recent years... 2017......4.6" 2010....20.0" 2008......4.0" 2005......5.8" 2000....12.0" 1995......7.7" 1984......4.8"

la nina winters in NYC... year.......Dec snow.......total snow... 2017........7.7"....................40.9" 2016........3.2"....................30.2" 2011...........0........................7.4" 2010.......20.1"....................61.9" 2008.........6.0"....................27.6" 2005.........9.7"....................40.0" 2000.......13.4"....................35.0" 1999..........T........................16.3" 1998.........2.0".....................12.7" 1996...........T........................10.0" 1995........11.5"....................75.6" 1988..........0.3".......................8.1" 1984..........5.6"....................24.1" 1983..........1.8"....................25.4" 1975..........2.3"....................17.3" 1974..........0.1"....................13.1" 1973..........2.8"....................23.1" 1971............T.......................22.9" 1970..........2.4"....................15.5" 1964..........3.1"....................24.4"

NYC ... la nina winters...weak negative winters... winter..............DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...ranked by the coldest to warmest Dec-Feb period... 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255........30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342........31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439........33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"..........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070........33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"............6.3".....4.6" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872........33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"............4.5"....4.5" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406........33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"..........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930........34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"............3.9" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293........34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"..........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224........34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"............8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"............4.2" 4.0" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164........35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"............5.7".....5.2" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400........35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"............6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"............6.0" 4.3" 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084........35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"............3.0" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"............5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"............5.5" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"............4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"............6.0" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"............5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838........36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"...........11.4"....4.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008........37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"...........26.9"....5.8" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8".............3.8" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624........37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1".............7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201........37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0".............3.5" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7".............4.5" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108........39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2".............9.4"....7.6"....5.1" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750........40.5...13..........37.0............7.4".............4.2"

DCA Nov-Dec snow...ao/nao for biggest snowfalls... year.....snow"...big snow".................................................AO..........................................NAO............................ 2009....16.6"....16.4" 12/18-19.......................-4238 12/18....-5821 12/21........-2111 12/14....-1964 12/20 1962....16.2"......5.4" 12/25.............................-0656 12/25...-4159 12/31........-2046 12/25 1966....16.1"......6.7" 12/13...7.0" 12/23-24....-4147 12/13...-2343 12/23........-0101 12/13...+0503 12/23 1967....13.2"......6.9" 11/30...4.2" 12/31.........+1812 11/30...+0479 12/31.....+1196 11/30....-0883 12/31 ...includes Nov snow 1989....12.5"......4.5" 12/12-13.........................-3482 12/10...............................-1704 12/10....-0173 12/16 includes Nov snow... 1957....12.0"....11.4" 12/3-4............................-1395 12/1....+0899 12/4..........-1286 12/2.....+0221 12/6 1987....11.5"....11.6" 11/11..............................-0663 11/7....+1056 11/11.........-0286 11/7......+0603 11/11 1973....11.0"....10.2" 12/16-17.......................-1946 12/9......-0888 12/14.........-2792 12/19.......+0320 12/16....-0941 12/24 1960......8.7"......8.5" 12/11-12.......................-0082 12/12........-0781 12/9.......-0078 12/12 2002......7.1"......6.1" 12/5...............................-1938 12/5....................................-1381 12/1......-0351 12/4 1969......6.8"......5.1" 12/25-26........................-3259 12/21...-0971 12/26..........+0054 12/25....-0148 12/26 1953......6.7"......6.6" 11/6-7............................-0554 11/4.....+1291 11/7............+0068 11/5.......+0315 11/6 1982......6.6"......6.6" 12/12.............................-0696 12/12....+2284 12/16.........+1082 12/9......+0657 12/12 1963......6.4"......5.6" 12/23.............................-4470 12/20....+0129 12/23.........-2397 12/13.....-0103 12/23 2003......6.2"......3.6" 12/14.............................+1239 12/13....-0194 12/15.........+0539 12/14....-0015 12/15 1970......5.2"......4.9" 12/31.............................-2530 12/19....-1493 1/1/71..........-2434 12/25....-1731 12/31 2005......4.8"......3.9" 12/5-6............................-3569 12/5.......................................-0921 12/6 enso...la nina in blue...el nino in red...neutral in black...62-66-67 were weak negatives...2003 a weak positive...89 and 60 around neutral...

Nov 1987 had a foot of snow between torch's...

NYC snowfall in la nina years...(ONI) ...13 years with at least 20" of snowfall...11 years with less than 20" of snowfall... 60"+ winters...two...2010-11...1995-96... 40-49.9"..........two...2005-06...2017-18... 30-39.9"........three...2016-17...2000-01...1955-56... 20-29.9"...........six....2008-09...1984-85...1983-84...1973-74...1971-72...1964-65... 15-19.9"........three...1999-00...1975-76...1970-71... 10-14.9"...........six.....2007-08...1998-99...1974-75...1954-55...1950-51...1949-50 00'09.9"...........two....2011-12...1988-89...

QBO is similar to 2010 and 1966 but will it continue...Both winters featured a qbo of at least +10 throughout the winter...

yesterday jb back tracked on his call for a mild snowless winter...he quoted a similarity with the 2010 arctic oscillation...