uncle W

there is some blocking in the forecast but nothing as extreme as those years...but then again the block doesn't need to be that strong...I'd like to see an ao at -4sd... lowest daily AO in December... 1950...-4.353...12/27...max/min 22/9 ...2.9" of snow on the 26th...biggest snow/coldest temp of the winter... 1952...-3.766...12/27...max/min 38/17..12 degrees 12/28...coldest of the winter...3" of snow 12/31... 1958...-3.814..,.12/22...max/min 29/12..cold dry...coldest temp of the month on the 22nd.. 1961...-3.959...12/26...max/min 39/30...6" of snow 12/23-24... 1962...-4.159...12/31...max/min 13/4.....coldet temp of the month... 1963...-4.470...12/20...max/min 26/11...coldest temp of the month...6.6" of snow 12/23-24... 1966...-4.147...12/13...max/min 37/31...rain and snow 12/13-14...7" of snow 12/24-25... 1968...-4.547...12/27...max/min 28/21...2" of light snow 12/27... 1969...-3.714...12/30...max/min 36/31...freezing rain 12/30-31... 1976...-5.287...12/29...max/min 32/20...2" of snow 12/28-29... 1978...-4.294...12/27...max/min 38/27...19 on 12/29...coldest for the month... 1995...-4.353...12/19...max/min 33/22...8" of snow 12/19-20... 2000...-4.688...12/29...max/min 30/17...12" of snow 12/30... 2009...-5.821...12/21...max/min 38/26...11" of snow 12/19-20... 2010...-5.265...12/18...max/min 36/28...cold dry till 20" of snow 12/26-27... 2012...-3.902...12/8.....max/min 50/44...rain and mild...

remember Dec 2000 and 2010 when some models were hinting big storms for weeks before it actually happened...both those Decembers were cold...2020 will probably be warmer than those two because they were much below normal...

I wasn't to impressed with the March 2001 and Jan 2015...analogs used for the 01 storm were to cold...The ao was way positive for the 2015 storm...

that winter had two good weeks in the first half of December and one huge storm in Feb...otherwise it was really bad...

A freudian slip...

yeah Dec 26th has the most crippling storms than any other day...1969 changed to rain after 6" fell or it would have been a classic... Dec 26th 1872...18"... Dec 25-26 1909.....8"... Dec 26th 1933.....11" Dec 26-27 1947...26" Dec 26-27 2010...20"

is this the year we see a white Christmas?...here's Newark NJ. since 1945... year...snow on the ground Christmas morning...snow falling midnight Christmas eve...*...snow falling Christmas day...** 2009...4" 2002...T * ** 1998...1" 1995...4" ** 1993...T * ** 1983...1" 1980...1" 1975...1" ** 1970...1" 1966...8" * 1963...5" 1962...2" ** 1961...8" 1960...2" 1959...3" 1948...3" ** 1947...1" 1945...4"

thanks...

31 years ago today...

some real dud winters had a little snow the first week in December including last year then have a dry spell until February...1949-50 and 2007-08 come to mind...2005-06 too but snowfall was heavier esp;ecially in Feb...its nice to see this year has some hope and I hope it lasts thru New Years day...

maybe because the planet is a little warmer the south east ridge is more significant... snowiest NYC Decembers since 1950 and indices... year....snowfall big snow..ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3...…-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...……..7.1"...…….35.7...….-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...……..8.0"...…….40.2...…..1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...……..5.0"...…….38.5...….-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...……..6.2"...…….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...……..4.5"...…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...……..4.5"...…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...……..7.2"...…….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...……..5.2"...…….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...……..4.0"...…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...……..6.8"...…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00 ................................................................................................................. 6" plus December snowfalls date...........amount...AO.........NAO.........PNA.....NDJ ONI... 12/3-4/1957.....8.0"...+0.561....-0.197.....+0.534...+1.6.....ao was rising from negative... 12/21-22/59...13.7"...+1.032...+1.291......-0.812....-0.1..... 12/11-12/60...15.2"....-0.316....-0.916.....+1.527.....0.0 12/23-24/61.....6.2"....-0.862....-2.530......-0.436....-0.2 12/23-24/63.....6.6"...+0.129....-0.103.....+1.218...+1.1.....ao was rising from negative... 12/24-25/66.....7.1"....-2.324...+0.411.....+0.686....-0.3 12/25-27/69.....6.8"....-0.971....-0.148.....+0.547...+0.7 12/27/1990......7.2"...+2.601...+1.950......-0.936...+0.4 12/19-20/95.....7.7"....-4.353....-0.774.....+0.926....-0.9 12/30/2000....12.0"....-4.115....-0.537.....+1.075....-0.8 12/5/2002.......6.0"....-1.938.....-0.479.....+0.672...+1.1 12/5-6/2003...14.0"...+0.481.....-0.197.....+0.784...+0.3 12/19-20/09...10.9"....-4.651.....-1.833.....+0.549...+1.3 12/26-27/10...20.0"....-2.886.....-1.144......-0.284....-1.4

its not often that everything falls into place like in 1995-96...sometimes you can get lucky in a mild winter...its happened three times in the last 15 years...it can get as cold as one below zero in a warm winter like Feb. 2016...1948-49 had a great second half of December coming off a warm fall...it had a few other snowstorms including a 9.4" the last day of Feb... winter.........ave temp......snowfall.....big snow...min temp... 2016-17..........39.3..............30.2"..............9.4"..........14 2015-16..........41.0..............32.8"............27.5"...........-1 2005-06..........37.3..............40.0"............26.9"...........14 1990-91..........39.2..............24.9"..............8.9"............10 1982-83..........37.9..............27.2"............17.6"............12 1948-49..........38.5..............46.6"............16.0"............10 1932-33..........37.8..............27.0"............10.0"............11

in 2017-18 it snowed almost every time the ao went negative that year...

2005-06 had a cold spell near the end of November...after a brief warm up December started out cold and snowy...it was a good two week period of wintry weather...after that there was one good week in Feb...a lot of winters are like that ...some have one good week in Dec and two good weeks in Feb...1961-62 was like that...1985-86 had two good weeks in Feb...that was it...1974-75 was like that too...

warmest Novembers in NYC... 1902...warmest till 1931...December was cold and snowy including snow Christmas day... 1931...warmest till 1948 despite 2" of snow on 11/27...biggest of that horrid winter... 1948 was the warmest November on record until 1979...Dec 19-20th 1948 had 16-19" of snow in the city...the snow lasted thru Christmas...before that storm NYC got a 5" snowfall that changed to rain...the last few days of December had flooding rains that ended as 5" of snow early New Years day...the 25" of snow in December was the second year in a row with a major storm in December... 1975...second warmest Dec before 1979... Dec got cold and there was 2" of snow on the 22nd..Christmas morning had a little snow on the ground and there was a half inch of snow in the afternoon...that changed to rain during the late evening...New Years eve had rain in the evening that turned to an inch of snow early New Years day... 1979...warmest on record at the time until 2001...there was a snowfall of 3-4" on Dec 19th....that snow was gone in a few days and Christmas was 61 degrees... 1994...December had very little snow if any... 2001...December had very little snow if any... 2006...December was warm with no snow... 2009...big snow on 12/19-20... 2011...came after a 3-5" snowstorm in October...Dec had little snow if any... 2015...warmest on record now...December was much above the record as the warmest with no snow...

I was up in Dingmans Ferry PA that day...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...I drove home when the snow stopped and there was 8" in Brooklyn...a few days later another event dropped another 1-2" in NE Jersey and as far east as Newark...the coldest snowiest week in April during the 1900's...

some years with a warmer December...cold January and warm again in February... 1996-97 1998-99 1999-00 colder January analogs... 1956-57 1984-85 1964-65 2008-09

the first six winters I was alive for was 1949-50 to 1954-55...six straight with under 20" of snowfall in NYC ...no blizzards or crippling storms during that period...the streak started after the winters of 1944-45-1948-49...The winter of 47-48 is still one of the best ever...26" storm in Dec...48-49 had a crippling storm in December too and had over 45" of snowfall....1955-56 was another light snow winter until the third week in March...March 56 had the first storm a foot or more since Dec 1948...after another lackluster winter in 1956-57 there were six of the next 12 winters that were very good to great with crippling storms...that was the best run until the 1993-94 to 2017-18 period...will we be seeing some dud years ahead?...very possible but who knows...

I don't like what's happening with the ao this month...It makes me think the first half of winter sucks if you like snow...there can always be a rogue storm but that's grasping for staws...maybe things will get better by the end of January...a positive ao does't mean it will be mild all the time...it can even be cld like in 1988 and 1975...

none from 1950 to 1984...I dont have enso numbers before 1950 handy so I cant say how la nina years passed without a 4" snowstorm in NYC...maybe because we are still in a wetter regime...

its hard to get a snowstorm that's 4" or more in December during a la nina year...only seven years had one since 1950...mostly recent years... 2017......4.6" 2010....20.0" 2008......4.0" 2005......5.8" 2000....12.0" 1995......7.7" 1984......4.8"

la nina winters in NYC... year.......Dec snow.......total snow... 2017........7.7"....................40.9" 2016........3.2"....................30.2" 2011...........0........................7.4" 2010.......20.1"....................61.9" 2008.........6.0"....................27.6" 2005.........9.7"....................40.0" 2000.......13.4"....................35.0" 1999..........T........................16.3" 1998.........2.0".....................12.7" 1996...........T........................10.0" 1995........11.5"....................75.6" 1988..........0.3".......................8.1" 1984..........5.6"....................24.1" 1983..........1.8"....................25.4" 1975..........2.3"....................17.3" 1974..........0.1"....................13.1" 1973..........2.8"....................23.1" 1971............T.......................22.9" 1970..........2.4"....................15.5" 1964..........3.1"....................24.4"

NYC ... la nina winters...weak negative winters... winter..............DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...ranked by the coldest to warmest Dec-Feb period... 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255........30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342........31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439........33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"..........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070........33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"............6.3".....4.6" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872........33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"............4.5"....4.5" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406........33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"..........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930........34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"............3.9" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293........34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"..........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224........34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"............8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"............4.2" 4.0" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164........35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"............5.7".....5.2" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400........35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"............6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"............6.0" 4.3" 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084........35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"............3.0" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"............5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"............5.5" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"............4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"............6.0" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"............5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838........36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"...........11.4"....4.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008........37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"...........26.9"....5.8" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8".............3.8" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624........37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1".............7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201........37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0".............3.5" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7".............4.5" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108........39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2".............9.4"....7.6"....5.1" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750........40.5...13..........37.0............7.4".............4.2"

NYC snowfall in la nina years...(ONI) ...13 years with at least 20" of snowfall...11 years with less than 20" of snowfall... 60"+ winters...two...2010-11...1995-96... 40-49.9"..........two...2005-06...2017-18... 30-39.9"........three...2016-17...2000-01...1955-56... 20-29.9"...........six....2008-09...1984-85...1983-84...1973-74...1971-72...1964-65... 15-19.9"........three...1999-00...1975-76...1970-71... 10-14.9"...........six.....2007-08...1998-99...1974-75...1954-55...1950-51...1949-50 00'09.9"...........two....2011-12...1988-89...