ChescoWx

Of note it Q2 ended today this would be our coldest 2nd quarter in Western Chester County PA in the last 23 years (1997)

2nd straight beautiful day here in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County PA with highs again staying in the 70's (uh barely 79.9 today) - splits today 79.9/61.4 almost a normal day with avg for today at 80.4/59.5

Just had a brief heavy shower roll through here in NW Chester County PA picked up a quick .09" - MTD now up to 3.09" which is 0.12" below normal. Splits here today in Western Chester County 86.0/66.2 at KMQS and 84.0/66.2 in East Nantmeal Twp.

Looks like more than 12 stations across Eastern PA and NJ were 90+ today....of course the higher spots like KMPO (82) KMQS (84.2) and East Nantmeal (84.3) no bueno for 90's. Down in Sea Isle City NJ today I would say this was a top 10 summer day with the high of 78.3 reached at 9:23am with temps falling with the sea breeze front at 930am and we struggled to stay around 73-74 all PM with a steady ESE breeze off the chilly 68 degree ocean. Nice crowd this PM..even saw 1 person with a mask on for the 1st time in the last 3 weeks....

In East Nantmeal Chester County PA splits were 80.6/63.5 with .05" of rain...last 3 days I recorded 0.43" of rain. MTD we are at 2.90" which is .07" below normal. YTD rainfall at 24.19" which is 1.95" above normal through today. Down on the crowded beaches of Sea Isle City NJ today splits were 74.4/65.5 with no rain.

0.32" so far today in East Nantmeal with splits of 78.4/63.7 - down in Sea Isle City on the beaches the fog burned away and a beautiful day with splits of 71.5/64.1 have only used the AC for 1 day so far this year at the beach!

Here in East Nantmeal Twp. between last night's t-shower and this AM's showers 0.32" of new rain so far with more possible later this AM. MTD rainfall now up to 2.47" which is +0.96" above normal. YTD rainfall stands at 23.76" which is 2.98" above normal.

Lots of 90's across the area of course KMQS (87.8) and East Nantmeal (86.3) still no luck...although we were warmer than MPO!!

Power finally back in East Nantmeal!! Great stretch of weather on the way! Beaches are again crowded down the shore in Sea Isle City although at 84 degrees and a DP at 73 too warm for me...cooler tomorrow but still a land breeze.....

A little late but below is the Climate Summary for May 2020 for Western Chester County PA along with some interesting weather factoids Average Temperature 58.6 (0.7 degrees below normal) ( Avg High 67.4 / Avg. Low 49.8) This was our 2nd consecutive below normal month following the April 49.4 avg (0.5 below normal) The 2 month average of April and May mark the 24th coldest first 2 months of Spring in the Chester County history (1894-Present) and coldest since April/May 2008 Rainfall = 2.88" (1.40" below normal) YTD Rainfall stands at 21.29" (2.02" above normal) Highest Temperature was the 81.3 on the 15th - this was our 1st 80 degree day of the year and represents the 7th latest initial 80+ day since records began in 1894. The latest was on 5/27/37 Lowest Temperature was the 31.3 reading on the 9th - our last 32 degree reading of the season occurred on the 10th - this was only our 78th sub freezing low in the 2019/20 winter season normal is 115 days The 46.5 maximum recorded on the 9th was the 6th lowest May max daily reading in the historical climate data set

Just a beautiful day down at the Jersey Shore in Sea Isle City NJ....I don't think I have ever seen the beach so crowded on a weekday in June before! Wondering if the fact folks are not tied to their kids being in class in getting a lot more folks to show up on the beaches of NJ much earlier than normal....let's hope so!. It briefly touched 80 degrees around noon on the beaches but most of the PM was spent in the low 70's down to 70 degrees now while 6 miles inland they swelter at 86 degrees....back in East Nantmeal we are still without power.....would be a tough day without AC back there with temps topping out at 83.8 with high humidity.

0.72" from the storm yesterday and overnight in NW Chesco...beautiful day across both NW Chester County and the Jersey Beaches. Back in Chester County the splits were 76.4/62.6 while down in Sea Isle City NJ we had our 1st 80 degree day here on the barrier islands since last September 23rd when we hit 81.7. The beach was mighty crowded today with little if any social distancing evident on the beach... With high tide today being during the prime beach hours folks were crowded in.....the town of Sea Isle is really hopping as we start to move back to normal....restaurants are preparing for the upcoming opening of outdoor dining with tables being set up....should be a nice next few days down the shore!! Great to see how many people are here and getting back to normal!!

Still chilly at the Jersey Shore with a SSE wind still off the water - mid 60's here while just 6 miles inland at Dennisville NJ up to 80 degrees. Back in East Nantmeal Chester County PA near 80 degrees with a 71 degree DP....

Another day in the fog down at the Jersey Shore in Sea Isle City with a 66.3/61.3 split and no measurable rain...brutal weather on the beaches...however - back in NW Chesco wife is complaining about the humidity and urge to fire up the AC...splits today in Chesco were 73.9/67.0 with 0.21" of rain in the gauge. Through today NW Chesco is at 2.16" of rain here in May which is 1.74" below normal...however YTD we are at 20.57" which is 1.68" above normal through May 28th vs. 1983-2019 averages. Looking like a good shot an our 2nd consecutive below normal month with May running at exactly 1.0 degrees below normal through today in Chester County.

From JB after the 12z runs "The purpose of such extensive discussion on this is not to get into a fight over snow in central park, though I do think it will snow there and if I had to pick a number for snow by Mon am, there it would be 3. Its to get out in front of this, at the risk of being wrong, to explain why modeling is not the end-all to a problem, Say what you want, but there was no bowling ball rolling through with any hope a couple of days ago and this period Jan 5-12 has been on my radar for a while now. I can't help what happened before, and I see what is coming after, but in the meantime, there will be some triumphs with this storm as well as trauma. But this is not a backyard snow argument, for until the meteorology is settled the snow result is not clear, but with that warm water off the east coast, and the upper low coming right at it, I believe this low winds up between Cape May and Va beach, not north of that. As said, you may be 38 over 33 and raining and then bingo, the big wet flakes start coming down. The clipper on the euro spread snow further south than previous runs, and then next storm is further south. While the worst case ( lets say no snow south of I80 in the east and I 70 in the Ohio valley) is on the table, so is the best case as described in the earlier idea."

From JB today after 12z runs for the period before doom and gloom becomes full throated mid month!! "But there is a real chance here that the storm on the weekend does exit to the south and it does snow all the way to the coast. No longer are there just pressing height falls on the model. And this is what I am talking about, If you have different mass considerations, the movement of the mass, being lifted in one place, sinking n another, will bend the baroclinic ribbon, If you then focus the height fall center where the bend occurs you are in business, Truth be told, the 500 mb the Euro has is for a midwest to northeast snowstorm, it is still has to get some warm air out of the way, but they run at least makes 2 points. 1) it is not so far fetched that before the doom and gloom after day 10, there are winter threats and 2 ) Remember these are mathematical representations of a system that can not be tamed by men. Whether it happens or not, The 12z run while more bullish is likely not through correcting as it is desperate to try to string it out at the end, but that may be a function a feedback, You roll an upper low through the east like this and here is the problem btw the stringing out at the end and you probably are going to see it snow to the coast from the Delmarva north Of course the GFS had a nice little twist too it in the longer term And before that the GEFS jumps on a clipper but has nothing behind it and huge fight ensues with the Euro having less with the clipper and a cutter behind it, I like the middle. More clipper to push the cold, then a more southern track of the storm from Texas to the Va Capes. I think that storm will be further southeast, near the Va coast next week We'll see In the meantime there is room before the doom and gloom for some fun and games"

JB still on the snow and ice train north of the m/d line - as depicted on the 6z Euro means run

The well respected MET - JB from WB is on board the snow and ice train for north of the mason dixon line with the next event (16th-18th) since last Saturday. He is still not getting into accumulation but sees a Miller B storm running to the lakes with a secondary popping off the coast....and then some strong to near record cold to follow by the pre-Christmas weekend.

1st early high level winter forecast from the folks at WeatherBell show a slow start to winter but averaging only slightly above normal temps with snowfall in our area at 125% of normal August 2019 Plenty of potential for a severe winter. East will have to overcome early warmth. SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15. Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal. Snowfall should be generous.

From JB at WB "The folly of putting the cart before the horse with individual storms is standing out most pronounced on the European. I have no changes in my ideas on this being a big snow and ice event from the central plains into the northeast and the idea a center tries to get up in the Ohio valley with a secondary that cuts all the warming. The European has gone from as warm is it could be 4 days ago to a suppressed look that given what I see makes little sense with itself as this kind of trough is likely to capture the southern storm. One thing it is not. is a warm system in the midwest and northeast. It was never that to me, even if a center does cut up because there was going to be so much cold air in the way, it would ice and snow in many places. Of course now the worry is too far to the south, but I am confident on my answer in between. But I use storms in the longer term to make points about what I think is going on. The GFS was abysmal on the clipper Tuesday. After all these years, the same problem it was jumping on the front running short so much it lowered pressures too far north. The heaviest snow at 20 to 1 ratios will be near and north of the 528 thk. Plot your thickness and in the midwest and northeast, if your average thk is 525 start to finish of a 6 hour period of snow, ( start snowing at 522 and rise to 528) you should be in the sweet spot for the 20 to 1. And the system Monday morning will be a pain from DC to ACY, most likely coating to 2s. But again that clipper is coming down with a nice warm front that will force some pretty impressive overrunning But all this is a sign that the ideas have merit. I tweeted out this am that I dont believe it will rain again here in central PA till march 14. I tried to pull that back in 2009 at IAD , saying in late Jan I dont think they would get any rain in Feb, it would be all snow or frozen. IAD did have .25 inches of rain but the rest was all snow. Now that is not to say that a nasty blizzard will hit New England. It is saying, given this is an ensemble, that some of the key markers for an extreme are being hinted at by the model. But the real point is the pattern for the next couple of week has turned the way we thought it would, and even out at day 16, I just dont think that looks bad for what we have been saying going forward. Perhaps love is blind, and I still love what I am seeing. But whatever you do if you are a snow lover in the midwest and now the northeast.. dont put the cart before the horse. For if its backyard snow you are interested in, many of you will not have to wait till what is now day 8"

Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has trended significantly colder now has rain this PM transitioning to sleet by 630pm. A mix of sleet and some snow heavy at times overnight with 1.4" of sleet/snow accumulating before tapering off by 10am tomorrow morning. Temps will fall slowly through the day but will remain above freezing till near 4am Tuesday morning.

It does forecast wind speed but it knows where I am between hills north and south to not expect much from a wind perspective...only shows gusts to 30mph...

Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has just drizzle and light rain through rush hour tomorrow with only .03" steadier rains move in around noon tomorrow and goes till near noon on Tuesday. Total rain 1.52" with temps remaining in the 30's on Tuesday. Chance of a little wintry precip (flurries) by Friday night....with temps not too far above freezing next weekend

For your reading enjoyment From JB at WB this AM "The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along. The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its way the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advection cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you don't simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And what's more you cant go back and claim a forecast was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I don't care if you have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way"

Sheesh! Let's get this back where it belongs.....on weather JB from WB with his thoughts on the pattern change coming.... "But that is how these storms can be , the first one mainly north of US 6 and east of te Hudson river Wednesday but that one in the 7/8 period, the one I think is going out under the block , that is the next one . Now the big thing is that may be so strong is it pulls the other one in. In any case back over a week ago when we were sounding alarms about how warm this thaw may or may not be, and of course I may just be being stubborn, I mentioned how it could end with some wild storm changing to snow in the northeast. Not as likely in the midwest, ( outside of flurries) as the colder air has to come in from the northeast first But as soon as that positive gets to and west of Hudson bay, look out. Game on"