snowfan789

Thanks for your message. Maybe I will post a little more often to add a voice from a region that’s not well represented here. Denver does have especially unusual weather. My family left the Front Range for the CO mountains in 2021. The weather tends to be more stable here and can be very interesting - and very boring (long dry spells). I’m “only” at 7000’ but we usually have a solid snowpack from December to March. Not this year, though. We’re probably 50+” below normal seasonal snowfall at this point and it gets worse compared to normal heading east towards the Divide and up in elevation. Most ski resorts in CO are around 50% open or less, which is just mind boggling for February. I joined an older version of this board around 2005, as a New England resident at the time, and still remember fondly the intense excitement of tracking big coastal winter storms. But, broadly speaking, there really is no comparison between the importance of snow in the East vs West for the health of the environment and related things like tourism. A poor snowpack out here, especially year after year, can inflict a massively detrimental impact on forests, fauna, water supply, fire season, the economy, etc. I say this simply to provide a little more context for my repeated and likely forthcoming grumbling about the state of the snowpack in the West. It’s a very important metric for many reasons beyond simply enjoying snow for enjoyment’s sake - though that is certainly a reason to root for winter as well!

I’ve been a regular reader of this blog and its predecessors for about 20 years. I seldom post because, in general, I don’t think I have the expertise to meaningfully contribute. I’ve started occasionally posting recently because I think it is important to note the truly exceptional warmth and lack of snow in significant parts of the West this season, where longstanding records are absolutely being smashed. It is a big deal and should be part of the dialogue alongside the discussion about a kind of chilly and snowy season in parts of the East (only) that’s not historically noteworthy. Just my opinion though.

Significant portions of the West are record warm and snowless to date for this winter season. It is not unreasonable to describe that as a bigger weather and perhaps climate story than a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy winter in some parts of the approximately eastern third of the country only that is for the most part not record breaking. If you only care about the weather in your own backyard, cool. But if you’re genuinely interested in the weather and climate, then the superlative status of the winter in much of the West presumably would be something you’d deem worthy of attention. It is a major weather-related issue at the present with real and lasting repercussions for the environment and economy in a large portion of the country.

Understood. You were pretty clear. That’s why I said intermountain west - while noting that CO has fallen considerably short so far of what I thought you’d been predicting. Bummer for us.

Better recent comparison is probably 2017-18 fwiw.

Again, though, Colorado is a very big frowny face to date. We are superlatively snowless in the mountains based on the period of reliable snotel data going back to approximately the mid-80s. On the other hand, it is true that the interior intermountain west is mostly doing okay based on snotel data north and northwest of CO.

Snow water content as measured by snotel data is probably the single most important fall/winter/spring weather-related metric for the West. And that data for this season so far is generally dismal. It is in fact breaking records in many locations. December was the warmest on record in many parts of the West. So, while it is great that parts of the Southwest have been somewhat wet, this has been an exceptionally poor “cold” season so far for much of the western U.S.

Hope you’re right. It has been an historically abnormally warm and nearly snowless stretch for a sizable portion of the West this season so far. While that to some extent is to be expected at times with climate change, unfortunately, the giant leap we’ve very recently seen towards hot/dry is so extreme that it seemingly must revert towards the mean soon. Also, appreciate the added ~Western perspective in a forum dominated by the eastern approximately 25% of the country. No criticism intended, but what happens in New England, the Great Lakes, and northern middle Atlantic represents a small portion of the U.S. geographically.

Here’s more about the superlatively snowless western winter so far. Seems like a clear illustration of why focusing on moisture - as much if not more than cold - ought to be central to winter forecasting, at least for areas that are not typically mild to warm.

Yes. To take one specific but telling example, it continues to be an exceptionally bad winter here in Colorado. We are currently on the precipice of the worst statewide snowpack in recorded history and will likely be breaking that record within a week or so, given the dry forecast. The percentage of the country that has received decent snowfall this winter so far, as far as geographic areas goes, is small. Despite much hype about this winter’s prospects from some sources, the fact is that it has been pretty remarkably lacking in snow for the overwhelming majority of the United States.

Here are some interesting albeit depressing observations from a well known and respected longtime recorder of the weather in Colorado’s mountains a little north of Crested Butte. https://www.gothicwx.org. The recent warmth in particular has been truly extraordinary - absolutely obliterating past records left and right - though the lack of snow and first ever officially observed December rain in his spot is also striking. Only adding to the frustration is the persistent negative PNA pattern we’ve had, which is usually favorable for the Rockies. But that monster ridge over the southern Plains that seemingly won’t budge has generally been tearing the systems apart before reaching CO while places like CA have had considerable improvements since mid-December, which is great for them. But really sucks for us to be failing to capitalize on a PNA status that eventually will get worse for all of the West. Just seemingly cannot win this season so far here in CO. Last winter was also one of the least snowy seasons in 50+ winters of Gothicwx (see above) record keeping. So we’re arguably on track to have 2 of the least 5 snowy winters in the western central CO mountains over the past 50+ years within merely two seasons, though it is still somewhat early and, yes, things can change this season. Even so, the degree of recent change in our weather is pretty shocking, even knowing what has been predicted with climate change. I acknowledge we have also recently had a good snow season locally (2022-23, which was a horrid year for the East), but the extremes on the warm/less snow side are far more dramatic. Just thought I’d throw in a little more perspective from a part of the West that once had reliably very snowy winters, with just a few exceptions.

Very longtime reader of threads like this here (but hardly ever post). It has been an absolutely brutal start to winter in the Intermountain West. I live in Colorado in a small mountain town west of the Divide and it is no exaggeration to say we have the worst snowpack (or lack thereof) as of today in recorded history. Snow is vital for the health of ecosystem and economy around here. It once was the case that both the East and West could have good winters at the same time but it seems nearly impossible now.

How do things look rolling forward in terms of precip? Absolutely brutal start to the snow season in much of the West.

Are you thinking above snowfall overall for the CO mountains? Your outlook suggests that in places but not so much in others. I honestly care way less about the Front Range than mountains because it’s more relevant to water supply, ski season, fire danger, etc. I’m not particularly optimistic for west of the divide north of the San Juans but would love to be wrong. 1982-83 was a great season for a lot of the West, I believe. 2009-10 not so much, among other analogs.

Appreciate the time and effort you clearly put into this. Your outlook last year was really solid overall so I have been looking forward to this year’s. Quick question - Part of your outlook suggests dry and mild for parts of Colorado but then another suggests normal to about 130% of normal snowfall for the same area. I’m having a little trouble seeing how both could be true. What are your thoughts on that?

That “ideal” winter weather pretty much exactly describes what seems to be typical where I now live, in the mountains at about 7000’ near Glenwood Springs. Personally, much prefer the weather here to the Front Range (fairly reliable snow cover from December thru March), though even Front Range at least along and west of I25 is way better from a snow lovers’ perspective than 90%+ of where most people live in the U.S. We have more way reliable/consistent four seasons here. Even so, nearly all of January and the first half of February was almost oppressively unrelentingly sunny and dry. Snow just didn’t melt that much because of consistent chill (not really that cold however). If you really love snow but don’t love cold and like CO, seems as though somewhere like Clark, CO might be your dream spot. Lots of CO, even many near-mountain spots, seems vulnerable to extended periods of dryness.

Am fortunate to have recently relocated from the Front Range to near Glenwood Springs. Live higher up near Sunlight at about 7000’ . Looks like we may actually see rain today (hopefully not after today) but longer term forecast looks promising. Have probably got 6-8” of settled snowpack right now.

Almost 100% snow since early September, though that sounds more impressive than it is, in a sense, as it has been abnormally dry and not particularly cold either, with a very few exceptions. We’re generally well below average at this point in the Front Range for seasonal snowfall.

Well, some models at some times recently have shown a bit more promise in the Front Range for the next system. Others -- like the GFS -- not so much, generally. Seems like a lot of possibilities remain on the table currently. On a different note, where in AZ and NM may finish December with above average precip? The state of the snowpack is pretty bad throughout most of the West, and downright terrible in much of AZ and NM. https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

Actually, I think based on what I’ve seen that Utah may be in for a snowy stretch starting soon. But it has been very dry in the West lately, so there’s a lot of making up to do re: snowpack. I think pretty much everywhere is requiring reservations to ski, so I definitely recommend checking on that before traveling anywhere.

Finnster, here’s a pretty detailed article on the so-called Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) https://weatherwest.com/archives/5982. While the RRR is generally very bad for places like California, a western trough that’s too deep and too far west can be less than ideal for us here in CO, especially on the east side of the Rockies. Along the Front Range, we often seem to do best with a trough that’s centered east of CA, along with some blocking in the Atlantic (negative NAO).

Billings has had a lot of snowy years lately. Seems like the storm track is often further north than it used to be.

Yeah, we are in a very dry spell through much of CO, at a typically relatively wet and in some cases white time, no less. If this lasts, that will become an increasingly major problem. Parts of the State have had good to great snow years but a lot of the State is already in varying degrees of drought. We need moisture to return soon.

Any reports from the Berkshires? I used to live in Williamstown and am thinking that corridor may have taken the grand prize for the storm.