CoastalWx

For a strengthening cat 4 like that and a ragged 40% or so of the eyewall, it’s surprising to me it intensified like that. In the following post, I mentioned the intense convection.

It’s like the 60% of the eyewall is extremely intense and just sucking up all the air lol.

I’m still surprised because the eye is not really impressive at all. But she seems to still be strengthening I guess.

Might take out some trees at Augusta. Lets flatten the greens.

If he avoids convection at 45K he'll likely be ok. But dumb move imo.

Wow

Anything like that needs to be east of center

It’s shown on two different radars.

Really would like to see that eyewall close though.

Yeah, this storm is pretty much all Eastside.

Gotta say I’m impressed with her. I had my doubts on category four earlier, but it looks like it’s gonna be a low end four at least anyways. Imagine if it started this process six hours earlier.

Yeah good luck up that way. Stay safe.

That band off Tampa looks ripe for spouts and when onshore, tornadoes.

I think they are in for issues with surge.

I saw that. It's not hype.

First off, this isn't even close to those. Secondly, who said bust? Describing the storm issues and why it's struggling is different than saying "This storm won't do shit, Mets and models all suck, what a bust!"

A win for the globals here.

I heard that too. Just not a big fan of extrapolation determining the winds without the help of other tools.

Is the upgrade based on FL winds? Would be nice to get some reports from the surface.

I'd say vis and IR looking markedly better last hour. She's getting her act together imo.

I was wondering as well. John virtually stalled and outflow sort of channeling towards Helene. Might be keeping the mid level dryness hanging around to the SW of Helene a bit longer than it looked two days ago.

Because of the way the atmosphere works. You can be off just slightly, and the whole forecast goes to shit. Models off by even 10% RH in a large depth of the column are possible for sure. And then there goes the forecast.

It is far from the king and virtually unusable lately. The spaghetti plots and globals like GFS and Euro also have different physics etc. Perhaps the more complicated interactions with the short wave troughs favored the globals a bit this go around. But, over the years I've also learned not to discount the tropical models. I know in New England, when they sniff that east trend with the westerlies, forget it. It's over. That's why hopefully humans can add value and try to adjust the forecast accordingly. There is also high stakes here and you need to weigh all of this when doing a forecast. It's easy for weenies to make a call sitting back at their desk..but it's a whole other level when your forecast is driving evacuations with billions of dollars in assets on the line as well as human lives.

Not that I encourage using the HRRR for this right now, but check out the srfc wind gusts for this. I think the idea of what it shows makes sense. A very large windfield to the east that rips into SC. Also, the backside of this with the pressure rises in the ATL area likely bring the strongest winds there on the backside. But man the rains in the high country of NC and SC.

Read his correction he made. Why you mad, son?