CoastalWx

We like our HP.

Lots of options. My guess is some sort of meso low may develop and lock in the cold over the interior. Perhaps we keep getting a press more to the south. Either way, probably the most wintry look we have had in weeks.

Snow to ice to rain. It will change though.

Yes EPS

Euro eventually turns into rain after a wintry start

Like the HP.

I think you did in december

I talked to Wilton last night. He told me he’s working on it.

Definitely had ice potential somewhere. Second storm looks messy.

I don't know why, but I enjoy overrunning. LOL. Maybe because they can be sneaky good events, maybe because they pose a fun challenge, or maybe because the cold press is sometimes under-modeled. So I look forward to it. Of course if it's a cold rain that would not be so enjoyable, but I do find overrunning events rather fun.

This is what happens when you pull a KU in a super nino.

Oh baby, that is a nice overrunning deal. At day 11.

I've argued the same. "I feel like early January will have a storm on the East Coast..." No shit Sherlock. Unheard of.

Not only is it flatter, but it's got the Drag cold tuck too from a meso low on the front. This is for the second more robust system.

Anyways back to weather. Please please let next week work out somehow.

But that does mean cold...lol. I was thinking more from an ENSO or ocean point of view.

And that's what I love...to see those guys fall flat. I'll tell you exactly why, because so much money is involved. For a long time, long range forecast IMO was viewed as a premier part of meteorology. If you could forecast the season from a temp and precip point of view, you were revered. After many years, I saw how difficult this was. There are few who are passionate about this and who are very good at explaining stuff. Mike Ventrice actually loves explaining his work. It may not always be right, but he's one of the few who aren't cocky and actually like to explain their work. I feel like LR forecasting still is a great aspect of meteorology, but the field is changing. Decision support and customized forecasts for your audience means more and more. As models improve it will make it tough for all mets, but when you hear traders say they only use the EC guidance...that doesn't make LR mets feel all giddy inside. They aren't providing a lot more value than that model already is.

They are just fine for all the bashing they get. I find it amusing. We all roll our eyes at the probability forecasts, but given warm base state of everything and the voodoo indices out there, they are right there with the rest of the vendors. It's a tough business.

Just go back and look. For all the bashing they get, I challenge anyone else to step up and be better. Look at this year. In November they had equal chances in the Mid west and nrn Plains with a warm west and east coast. Most vendors had a very cold forecast where the HDDs matter. The CPC forecast will fail in the west, but they probably overall will be better than most. The point of this discussion is to show the voodoo indices we all look at don't always work. More recently, I feel like the skill in our typical indices we use for seasonal forecast just don't work as well for whatever reason. I see many LR vendors pound their chest, only to have the traders bail on their winter forecast.

I also remember when the MJO was pushing into phase 8 and everyone finally expected the cold......except it went into Europe. But oye vey, some of the crap pimped out on social media led by Judah is unreal. I do think more and more of our traditional analogs for ENSO or other oceanic indices may not mean what they used to. There is some value still...but you almost have to think of caveats to those each time you use them.

Go warm in the sense of evaluating the pattern and with 30 yr normals, of course. I mean if we know the PV is kissing International Falls, that may be an example to take the under obviously. Last Fall everyone was all about low solar (which research shows it may not be smoking gun like many thought it was), and then it became strat warming and the PV making for an ice box US winter. Now it's on pace for a record warm one. Of course when Alaska is so cold we know it will torch...but we have a long long way to go.

Honestly Ray, isotherm, and hell even Kevin probably aren't any worse than our better LR mets out there. What people who do LR need to do, is if their forecast is going down in flames, bail as fast as possible. That helps a lot. If you go down with the ship, it's bad. Also, as much flack as the CPC forecasts get, they have been doing better than many LR vendors. It's to the point now where I'm not sure how much longer the LR industry will need mets anymore. Models are good and we are warming. Go warm and you'll win more often than not. We still can provide value. For instance when we see guidance predict a massive ridge in AK...we know it will be cold over the central and western US. I've seen models show AN srfc temps. We know that is bullshit. So that is an example of value from the met.

LR probably is more accurate, but man the twitter met clowns are throwing so much garbage out there....and the coveted ones. Good grief. Every year it's a new thing. This year it's the effing polar vortex and how that is ruling the world I guess.

I'm thinking more and more analogs are becoming useless with a warming world. The oceans are warm all over. Our typical analogs likely don't mean the same like they did years ago. The strong ENSO events still have a say, but when the oceans are warm all over...I think the indices mean less and less. JMHO.

They always come NW!