CoastalWx

Looks more like Maine.

Euro AI waaay south.

Slowly juicing up but seems lost.

Despite the low track, I think what’s helping is some of the dynamics. Strong warm air advection over this cold dome can sometimes offset what typically is not a good track for Snow.

I go out in it too, still could be cooler. To be honest, I’m more focused after the moderation right now. Monday looks like a massive questionmark.

Nam juiced

Eh lol. Could be cooler.

Those seem to run cool or too smoothed out. It’s not a massive high temp torch though.

It’s been on par. This time of year sensors get sun contamination.

Hrrr juiced up a tad.

Ended nicely here.

That’s the op.

There’s enough spread to watch I suppose. Not bad this far out for all those who only want positivity.

Pivotal. EPS AI ensemble well south.

EPS has a signal. Waiting on AI EPS.

Euro op colder than 00z and gets interior nicely. But 00z was warm.

Euro AI is due east of NC too. Way south.

Euro now has that band on south coast but paltry outside of that.

Yep. Mentioned that earlier.

Canadian whiffs.

I’m not sure his logic applies here. I guess if Reggie has a clue and it somehow shoots a ton of moisture in here, but in general that low track doesn’t argue for an overachiever. Ratios look decent though.

Sometimes you just need to look at the big picture, and you can use this gfs run as an example. You have a short wave approaching with low pressure approaching the Carolinas, but look at that bulge of warm air and ridging to the west. You’re also losing the high to the east. So all around you’re getting warm air advection pretty much surrounding this low and that short wave now is starting to attenuate because of that push-up warmth behind it. This is what I mean by not being in a good set up. Could it work, I guess if you really thread a needle, but all I’m trying to do is have people at least understand that this might not work out.

Not sure what you want. You have other members including Mets talking about the Monday setup and moderation. I never said snow is impossible, I said the setup is tough and rain is a viable option.

We had a decent airmass and a high in a good position. Though. Of all events the mid month deal had a good airmass for the time of year.

I don’t know if this is the type of system for that. It’s more about seeing what all the models have and the trends, and then figuring out the best solution.