Mr. Windcredible!

It's pretty remarkable how close the SLP track through central PA has been on the operational GFS the past 3 cycles...and even that isn't a huge jump from yesterday's 18z run. So aggravating that we only seem to see this sort of run to run consistency when it's an inland runner. 

43 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

It means nothing but my grandpa was telling me we are gonna get a huge snowstorm this year. He’s old and definitely just making things up, but I can hope he’s right, right?

About a month out...I predicted my first measurable snowfall of this year to within 1 day. Pleased with my now proven long range forecasting abilities, I immediately decided to forecast a 36" blizzard for CT on January 18. You're welcome CT posters.

That's the 18z NAM weenie run all of CT has been waiting for the past 3 days

8 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s not funny. I have aspergers and am a serious risk factor for CTE from spending my youth slamming my head against furniture for hours at a time. I have serious psych symptoms and require amphetamine and risperidone just to act like a normal human being. 
 

but I have a savant memory for weather and a lifelong hobby of following it. It was not 6 inches. It was well over a foot. The map even says so.

And who smokes pot. I haven’t smoked in years that sends me straight to paranoid psychosis. 

 

I hate to drag this back up after all the back and forth bickering last night...but you said you remembered it being before Christmas. Are you by chance thinking of Dec 19-20, 2009? Still not 30-35"...but it was likely double digits in Coventry going by snowfall maps. Had about 20" here in Clinton. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html 

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

At least it looks like winter out there for the holidays, even though it wont last long.

0.7" 32F

You really lucked out on the sweet spot there. congrats! hoping it slides east just a bit so I can at least record something more than a trace out of this one. 

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Steady snow picking up a bit on intensity. White rain mostly though, roads are wet. Non paved surfaces starting to stick. 

Getting ready to hunker down.

34F

 

I'm at 32.5 now. If either the air or ground temp was just a couple degrees cooler, we'd be all coated up here. I've probably got 0.25" of slush on my glass patio table...but the grass is frosted at best and still bare in most spots. Nice dusting on the pine trees and leaf piles though. Exciting stuff   

Some whitening of colder surfaces here near the shoreline. Heavy heavy trace

2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

No rain and barely any wind for the last half hour. 

yeah...lull was expected before it picks back up again later

Strong wind gusts here, earlier than I anticipated.  This wind sounds different than those of Henri, which isn't good.

Surprisingly gusty here in the past 30 minutes too…wasn’t really expecting the winds until later

You could always sanity check it with the radar estimates.

Yeah…hourly rate probably not far off. Radar peaked between 3-3.5”/hr. But my total is around 3.6” vs. 5”+ on radar. Whatever…either way…crazy rates there for a bit, but worst seemed to move they pretty quick.

Crushed in Clinton, friend texted me from there said its absolutely nuts.

Crushed everywhere. But yeah, a little over 2” in 30 minutes here. Has quieted down a bit now…only 2”/hr instead of 4”/hr

While I question exactly how reliable it is, Knowing my PWS wasn’t designed for these type of rates, it’s been around 4”/hr rain for the past 10min….nearly 1” during that time.

Flood waters in the terminal at EWR

Bit of thunder/lightning here. Surprisingly only just closing in on 0.5” in the gauge though.

some 1.5-2.5"/hr rates in SE PA right now

Evacuations ongoing in Wilmore PA now. A taste of what's to come...

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The HRRR model continues to drown my area on every single run. 7-8” every run/ time.  That’s a lot of rain in a 20 hr period. Yikes.,

to be fair...the bulk of that falls in a 6-8 hour window

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

and check out the 384hr GFS 

I was looking at NE regional view and trying to figure out what you were talking about. Lucky for NO that's the 384hr GFS. Although Louisiana's next hurricane hit is just 192hs out on the Canadian.

Rain band has set up again over NYC. Gonna add to their big totals from last night.

The hype is out of control.  Non stop coverage for what will essentially be a rainstorm in Most of CT lolololol 

I think it was warranted to some degree. Was probably worth emphasizing that Henri’s wind impacts were not likely to be as widespread as Sandy…but had this thing peaked at a Cat 2 yesterday and stayed in the further west course…it could’ve been bad across CT. It just irks me that no one wants to be the first station to backdown from the hype. You don’t even have to completely poo poo it as this point. But it’s pretty obvious at this point the wind threat here in CT much less a concern than it was. Still worth highlighting the flash flood potential.

Folks are frustrated, tracking a weak nor'easter for days that won't be memorable. After so much hope .  Understandable

Pretty thankful myself. Who wants a tree on their house and weeks without power? Still gotta watch the flash flooding threat across CT today though.

Not downplaying the potential flood threat here in CT…but after all the hype I’m the past 48 hours…gotta admit this weather alert from NBC is pretty funny

Already 3590 outages in CT

Odds on Eversource shutting off the grids just they can take credit for restoration times faster than 3 weeks?

Holy shit its panic city at the stores and shore from what everyone is telling me. Hope its not a case where its mostly meh and then the big one comes.

It was meh-central around here a couple hours ago. I saw one other guy at the hardware store grabbing a gas can and maybe a an extra car or two topping off at the gas station. Seemed like your average day at Stop & Shop. I think some people are still sleeping on this one.

Just now, PowderBeard said:

This is getting underplayed.

And trees are full.

What about sun angle while we are at it? 

you're forgetting we're in DST too...so the sun sets an hour later