Scraff

What’s that rule again? Oh right. That’s not a winning formula. Ever.

Nice little flizzard currently. 4 days of snow falling. It’s like living at the top of Snowshoe.

Please let the GFS be wrong as usual.

Couple flakes in Eastern Hoco. Waiting on my band for the last hurrah flizzard.

GFS won’t catch on likely until Thursday. As long as the Euro keep advertising it I’ll be interested...

They deserved to lose. Maybe they actually needed too. That way Lavi can rip into them for that garbage effort.

Nice! And definitely have. I’m good friends with the brewer there. He makes quality brews for sure!

Snow starting from that band. Wind picking up. 4:30 Jebwalking commenced...

I’m thinking the same. I’ll meet you at the top of the sledding hill. Haha.

I can extrapolate that yellow and say it’s going to my house in Hoco.

Looks like a good band incoming.. Eta: picking up quick. It’s here!

Eta: Yay for flakes!

Looks like our precipitation is rotating down from the NE in Baltimore. Needs to get here soon.

The Weather Channel has us in 3-5. Eta: meh. Meant 1-3. We toss. Lolz

12z NAM gives me another 3”ish. Oh wait. That’s a trash model right?

I swear I’ve seen “Triple Phaser” on a Bingo card once.

Am I doing this right? I have 36”.

Moderate now. Everything caving quickly...

Good morning everyone! First few flakes at the Columbia/Elkridge line. Enjoy the day.

Bye Felicia! eta: of course j/k. Don’t go dark again. Been great having you back.

Complete beat down. Wowza. Huggin hard...

Just a side note. Earlier—my kids asked me what time tomorrow would we have a enough snow for us to go on a “Jebwalk”? Next to Bchill—you are legend as well my friend. Love when you chime in here from deep in the heart of TX. And so Mappy and team doesn’t zap my shit...how bout that GFS!? Looks like it might snow tomorrow....Monday....maybe Tuesday! I think that low is all TUCKED up. LOLz.

We need to bring it home! BTW—My fridge has been stocked up and ready since 2016. Eta: Meh-who we kidding. It’s always full of deliciousness.

Come on blue on blue! I know one person will that will like it...or find a reason to hate it.

I’m a big fan of Larry Cosgrove. If this...or @psuhoffman doesn’t have you fired up for the next few weeks.... “I realize that there is a huge disparity between what some of the longer term modeling is showing for temperatures, and my analog projections. If you believe the CFS and ECMWF panels, none of the codler regimes showing up in late January will stick around in February. But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play. Realize that the potential storm for January 24 - 28 is a very big deal in the outline for February! The event would set a template of sorts, with continued blocking around Baffin Island, helping to set up a recurrent chance for Nor'easter type cyclones (both Middle A and B variety. Cold drainage would be made easy by ridging that sets up along the West Coast and nearer to the North Pole. Curiously, the analog platform has the eastern two-thirds of North America about as cold as what Europe has been recently. An upper low centered roughly over Lake Superior and into central/southern Ontario would create happiness to snow and cold enthusiasts, quite possible through March as well. Note that a) hemisphere snow cover has expanded greatly, and b) the splitting of the 10MB circumpolar vortex has continued with ridging in far northern Canada. If you project on past modeling of stratospheric temperature, the potential is there for occasional cross-polar flow. So whereas Siberia is the coldest source region now, drainage may help to reform the cAk "motherlode" into Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories. I think it is safe to say that snow and ice potential will be higher east of the Rocky Mountains, and that colder days are upon us. Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts. Sleep well tonight”