Scraff

I’m a big fan of Larry Cosgrove. If this...or @psuhoffman doesn’t have you fired up for the next few weeks.... “I realize that there is a huge disparity between what some of the longer term modeling is showing for temperatures, and my analog projections. If you believe the CFS and ECMWF panels, none of the codler regimes showing up in late January will stick around in February. But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play. Realize that the potential storm for January 24 - 28 is a very big deal in the outline for February! The event would set a template of sorts, with continued blocking around Baffin Island, helping to set up a recurrent chance for Nor'easter type cyclones (both Middle A and B variety. Cold drainage would be made easy by ridging that sets up along the West Coast and nearer to the North Pole. Curiously, the analog platform has the eastern two-thirds of North America about as cold as what Europe has been recently. An upper low centered roughly over Lake Superior and into central/southern Ontario would create happiness to snow and cold enthusiasts, quite possible through March as well. Note that a) hemisphere snow cover has expanded greatly, and b) the splitting of the 10MB circumpolar vortex has continued with ridging in far northern Canada. If you project on past modeling of stratospheric temperature, the potential is there for occasional cross-polar flow. So whereas Siberia is the coldest source region now, drainage may help to reform the cAk "motherlode" into Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories. I think it is safe to say that snow and ice potential will be higher east of the Rocky Mountains, and that colder days are upon us. Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts. Sleep well tonight”

Ravens game has been a total disaster (winter 2019/2020). **** it. At least it’s hockey season. Let’s beat the shit outta Pitt tomorrow. Hi @yoda

I’m sorry, but do you have cliff notes available?

I’m torn on Charra. I HOPE it works out? Last time we had a fossil on D (Orpik), we won the Cup. Morning After from Hysteria was just canned like 20 mins ago. My favorite batch yet. Gotta love coffee though. It’s pretty much an iced 7% ABV coffee with soft cocoa and vanilla throughout. Types that as I sip the new Piney The Panda DIPA. Holy! 8.5%. West / East Coast hybrid. Can I get some PNA love one day day soon to help us with our snow dreams in the East!? LOLz

Day drinking and getting ready for Caps hockey...the best!

I’m no bowling expert....except on the Wii, but that look would seem to imply that ball is going to hook a bit north then straight down the alley east towards us. Am I right?

Yeah GooFuS!! Get my next weekend digital blues. @Ji ?? eta: good enough for now

That just brought a tear to my eye. Only 372 hours to go!

I don’t either. Jeez people. However, it does seem like winter is hangin in the balance.

I’m a much bigger fan of the old Accuweather forums....said nobody ever!!

Boom!! GFS creeping the cold rain closer on Tuesday. ETA: Meh. Swing and miss on the light rain. I’m moving to Seattle...

How the hell does it dive down across the GoM and not pick up moisture as it heads back up towards us? eta: Oh right. Forgot. We are not a snow town.

It’s happening gif has been summoned. Hahaha.

Stop bringing up 96! Yes. It was 24 years ago today. Oh wait. You meant hr 96.

Kinda feel like the GFS has been winning the entire time in an unfortunate way. Some of us just had our blind folds on (I know I did anyway). Ah well. The 15-20th window was always the real window anyway....I still hope.

Happy 24th Anniversary! And it was a La Niña. I think we’re due! I want that big DT 96er.

Vodka?

I might be able to save an 09 and 10 for a weather friends bottle/can share when we get back to “normal”. I have 2 of those each so would love to do that. I want to share with people who would truly appreciate them.

What years are you cracking? I have some BCS bottles from 09/10/12/13/14/15. I mistakenly broke my chain of the vertical by drinking the 11. It was a drunken moment of stupidity during one our previous years snow storms. Let me know how the tasting goes. Love to hear about it. Cheers! Weather related - it’s cold and damn rainy. Too bad it wasn’t 10 degrees colder.

If only that wasn’t a figment of our imagination.

Better stock up on 120 Min IPA! It will help quell the pain and agony of watching Boston getting slammed while we get our warm and dry.

BWI: 17 DCA: 12 IAD: 19 RIC: 11 SBY: 9

I’d be ok with Cosgroves thoughts.... MONTHLY FORECASTS NOVEMBER Most of the analog years present a fairly standard +PNA signature with a warm West vs. cool Central, East alignment. But a recurrent issue is that all model guidance is solidly warmer than normal over most of North America. Given that the comparison test looks almost exactly like the same September 1 - October 16 of this year, I kept the temperature forecast very close to the twelve-year mean. If shortwave injections into the Mid-Continent mean trough are as strong as what is shown now over the northern Pacific Ocean, potential for high wind events will be high from the Rocky Mountains into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes in November. DECEMBER A more difficult forecast, since there is a prominent warm-up across the Old South and Mid-Atlantic regions which may not be viable. Note the positive height anomaly in the -NAO position (Baffin Island and Greenland) which in many cases could be construed as a block that triggers southward deviation of the jet stream. That said, the numerical model guidance is very aggressive in presenting a Southeast ridge. That feature is normally linked to very warm conditions east of the Rocky Mountains. The gradient set-up between recurrent storms over MT and WY vs. the ridging implies repeated high surface wind potential from the Great Plains and Texas into the Corn Belt. Caveat: Should the high-latitude anticyclone be the stronger of the two ridges, temperatures will be much colder across the Midwest and Northeast than what is shown here. JANUARY A much colder outlook than the previous attempt. The presence of ridging in the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO positions normally favors relocation of the cA vortex at 500MB into Ontario and James Bay. Indeed, with the core negative height anomaly aloft centered roughly over MN and W ON cold pooling will probably relocate to between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. The surface storm track may stay inland over the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain, so the major cities may have cases of rain and not snow. All things considered, there will likely be some very wintry moments in the Midwest and Great Lakes. The western states seem warmer and drier than normal outside of a few frontal passages along the Pacific Coast. Caveat: It would not take much, with the widespread ridging at higher latitudes, to turn the Eastern Seaboard into a winter wonderland as we start 2021. FEBRUARY Similar in many ways to the January upper air pattern, but with more extensive cyclonic curvature and cold air through the eastern two-thirds of the nation. If there is going to be a major snowstorm along the East Coast, it probably will be in February. Note the stability of the blocking ridge complex above the Arctic Circle. Caveats: If ridging builds into British Columbia, we could see cases of severe cold and more frequent frozen precipitation from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Conversely, if the blocking signature is weaker, there may be some merit in the very warm outlooks posted by the CFS and ECMWF series. MARCH Yet another example of a back-ended winter forecast. Note that there is very little change in high-latitude ridge position and strength. In theory, if this forecast verifies, abundant snow in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England could help to maintain substantial cold to the right of the Continental Divide. Caveats: The very warm numerical models continue to concern me, and are a reason that I moderated temperatures somewhat from the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Seaboard. Curiously, all analog and modeled guidance suggests a turn to much warmer weather nationally as we enter April. But March should be cold. SUMMARY Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere does not look like anything special now. But given time, and ridging spaced about the North Pole and Arctic Circle, the strong polar westerlies acting in concert with a La Nina signal should produce vigorous storms in the middle latitudes. The dryness in the middle of the continent could limit snow in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. But if the analog predictions verify for the winter months, there will be a great deal of snow in the Great Lakes and Appalachia. The best odds on snow impacts along the Interstate 95 corridor appear to be for February and March. The two most active storm track threats: Alberta Clippers and "Miller B" Hatteras Lows (one of which could be a memorable winter storm). A colder winter, overall, than the five most recent DJFM periods.

Guess WISP will be my spot this winter for golfing.