Jump to content

Scraff

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,412

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Scraff

    Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Cosgrove on board…:sled:

     

    I almost titled this discussion, "This is your last and best chance for serious cold and snow if you live in the southern and eastern tier of the USA".
     
    But for reasons of brevity, I decided against that starting banner. Instead, I look at the 11-15, 16-20, and 21-25 day periods as a chance to see "true winter" before the warmer and wetter March pattern arrives. The analog forecasts did very well in January with the cold plunge and cases of excessive (frozen and liquid) precipitation, so the similarity of the numerical models to the 500MB and temperature alignment should not be ignored. You have a rare -EPO/-AO/-NAO configuration forecast by all of the ensemble platforms, which have been consistent for about a week now. Remember my mantra: the worst and most extreme systems show up, with clarity, for many days before.
     
    Besides the massive conjoined blocking ridge, there is the matter of the impressive southern branch jet stream. A cAk vortex will form over James Bay and nudge into Quebec by February16. The powerful wind field will have two prominent pieces of cyclonic energy that start in western Mexico, move into Georgia and Florida, then churn northward along the Atlantic shoreline and interact with the developing cold dome. As to which system, if any, hits paydirt and intensifies while moving parallel to the East Coast, I cannot say. But there is a chance for an impressive storm with cold drainage to match vorticity and deep moisture input. In a sense, the south central, Mid-Atlantic and New England states have the chance for "something really special" in terms of precipitation amount and type. The 500MB core on all of the schemes is just below Long Island NY on or near President's Day. The second shortwave is approaching South Texas at that time. I am following the colder GGEM panels in terms of surface temperature.
     
    Now again I will warn those of you that are winter weather enthusiasts that with a decaying El Nino, a la 1973, March will be much warmer outside of the West. The western states will be dumped on by heavy wet snow in this process (think Sierra Madre and San Juan Ranges), but by spring a Mogollon Rim closed cyclone is a good possibility. The remainder of February from the High Plains into the Upper Midwest may be cold, but most likely dry.
    • Like 3

    January 2024 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Who de fuck truly wanted to see Detroit and KC anyway?  SF/KC should be pretty epic. Though SF/Ravens would have been our BECS, but now I’ll pay attention to it like our upcoming Wednesday flurries. 

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

    Where you at?? I'm down by 103/100 and it was pretty heavy 8-12pm. Probably have 5" total. Last hour or so its been very light, fine snow.

    This! It was never big fluffy flakes, but it was damn nice. Still a steady light snow here now. I’m also 100/103 too. I’m off Wesley if you know where that is. Assuming you might. ;)

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    3.9” after 6 hours with first snowboard wipe. 0.2” last hour, 3 hours straight at that rate. Snow is quite light right now, but radar suggests that changes soon.

    Seems to be  ramping up as I type and get ready for Jebwalk 2. 

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...