Syrmax

What? No Kuchera map?

I'll take it. These warmups feel good for those of us still mourning the demise of summer. Remember last winter, below avg snow here but still near 100"...south and east of BGM winter was a total fail.

You must have a heater? I closed mine about 3 weeks ago. Thankfully, it was a hot summer with just enough rain to make up for losses (I'm on a well so refilling pool from that isn't an option).

Good place to hike. I snowshoe there in the winter also. Rain just got going here down to 58F. I guess its adios to our last gasp of summer...

I don't have a link to offer but check out WxRisk's latest post on Facebook or maybe twitter...Most interesting. I better get the pool closed up ASAP if he's right. Of course he's full of hubris and mongering but its usually entertaining at least.

I missed this since I have been detuning from the noise. Congrats on the decision, it's certainly understandable. You will be missed here for sure. Best of luck to you and the Frau.

You know, I was going to expand and clarify but why bother. you are quite unlikable. Seek help.

Fair enough. I havent seen a lot on antibody testing on the Covid Tracking Project but I could've missed something. There's way too much information flow out there the last 3 months, overall.

Problem is we don't kknow if they're actually shitty tests or just Dems seizing on concerns about the rapidity by which FDA approved them. It will be figured out if they are shitty tests in due course but sitting around navel gazing and jerking off in peer reviews doesn't seem like the best approach while Rome burns.

This is part of why we are in trouble as a nation. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing So this is now evolving as the latest anti-Trump political ploy to oppose the release of covid-19 antibody testing. First, in Jan the MSM and Dems line was, "this is all overblown". Then, when Trump shifted gears to denial and trivialize space, they swapped 180 to oppose that. This fit hand in glove with "not enough testing," ... bad Trump. And correct. Now we're getting more testing and its but but but, it's not good testing. GMAFB. When the Democrats (correctly) pointed out that the Admin was fumbling the testing rollout during Jan-Mar timeframe, and fingered the FDA as being an obstacle in the process, it made the Trump admin look bad. Ok, fair enough. Now, when they begin rolling out a lot of antibody tests, and have improved covid-19 test availability (somewhat), its: oh no no no, those tests didnt get rigorous enough scrutiny by FDA. And lest one feebly state "oh so you're ok with bad tests," read this: "But in the rush to get tests to the public quickly, there are worries that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has allowed companies to market tests with little to no oversight, raising the potential for a surge in inaccurate results." There are worries. Really? By whom? C'mon, this is horsesh!t and clearly an attempt to keep the nation paralyzed for as long as possible to drive dissatisfaction and maximize economic destruction...which plays against Trump ostensibly in the election. These people better be very careful as people's patience with both sides is drawing thin. Unhinge enough people and frankly it'll be great entertainment watching these people all get what they've probably got coming.

Agree on that. In the end, I suspect that "excess mortality" might be a reasonable way to figure out a real number of covid-19 deaths. Not exact as seasonal flu lethality varies but we know statistically how many people die over the course of a year so any deltas ought to stand out.

We still have limited testing, whether it's due to a continuing lack of test kits or other procedural reasons, not sure. I'm not sure if there's an under or over count going on. There's been no shortage of claims both ways. Until proven otherwise, likely after the fact, I look at this issue as similar to bad refereeing...it washes out in the end...usually.

I dont know how granular they will, or can, get. Many counties have very low infection totals and it seems way overboard to be walking around in masks and all the other limitations on businesses. Problem is, if it gets relaxed in low infection upstate counties, its impossible to limit travel out of higher infection counties. So you rancid, infected mongrels in Rochester and Buffalo would have to stay home for it to fully work!

I've stumbled across interesting articles on health, weight control, etc with a focus on having the "right" gastrointestinal microbes and such. Not sure how real any of it is and a lot of nutritional stuff seems to border on junk science but some of it makes sense. If nothing else, if the Placebo effect works, roll with it.

NYC may stay in lockdown until 2022 or 2023. They'll never get a low enough caseload to convince themselves to come out. And that's fine, they can do what they want, or need to. Upstate we have a chance to loosen up in June but the first time trends even think about changing, Cuomo and local Committee's will reinstitute stricter controls. By Oct/Nov I'd expect we will plunge back into lockdown, so at best we have a 3-4 month reprieve. Without so called "herd immunity" the only real hope is that the virus mutates in our favor. Vaccines seem impossible in the next year or more and treatments incremental over time.

Gotta say, if I see one more Boeheim article in the Syracuse Post Standard I may go postal. Boeheim family, Boeheim wife, Boeheim's kids, Boeheim's fave salad dressing, Boeheim grilling gluten free dog turds, Boeheim's long lost relatives in outer Baluchistan, Boeheim's bowel movements...just stop.

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/05/as-he-struggled-to-breathe-cny-nursing-home-wouldnt-test-for-coronavirus-family-says-a-national-problem.html This seems almost criminally negligent. Even if it wouldn't have made a difference in outcome for this poor man, wouldnt a Nursing Home want to know if they have covid-19 circulating in the facility? Especially a Nursing Home... And to provide no explanations? Just wow. I can't imagine how furious the family must be. And no props to the County offices who seemed to have been completely ineffective here. Exactly what is it that they do again?

This would have been an approach that people could get behind. Granted the MSM will always seek to slay Trump but normal people would have respected that approach. Instead, we got denial, downplaying, blamecasting and then in mid March, begrudging action. (To be fair, the MSM and Dems did downplay the threat in early Jan and when Trump restricted China travel late in January, as a Pavlovian reaction to him). Blustering aside, the biggest fumble was with CDC testing and the Trump Admin not fixing that pronto. There is where we lost a lot of time. Noone, in either party, was going to shutdown the country in February, with very few known cases. Even if CDC hadn't been incompetent, the virus was probably just starting to exponentially spread in late Feb into early March. But we were flying blind.

Going to be real hard to restart sports...because of this type stuff... After three positive tests, three people at 1. FC Köln are now in quarantine. The group training can continue. http://fc.de/en/fc-info/news/detailpage/details/results-from-covid-19-tests/

I did state "serious" pandemic. Perhaps I should have clarified so as to say, the last one, H1N1 Swine flu, which didn't need, or result in this sort of clusterf*ck.

$1.85 locally at BJs yesterday. My son sent me a gas station photo from near Charleston SC. $1.34/gal. They were around $2/gal when I was there in January as a reference.

I had a response posted but it was deleted somehow. "Expert" input should of course be considered and implemented where reasonable. I wasn't suggesting otherwise, as you seem to imply. But, in short, there are more considerations than that which PHO's and academics such as epidemiologists will factor in to actual policy. Left to their own devices, i fear that they would never allow reopening or significant relaxation of controls as cases will never be zero and there will always be the boogeyman of 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves lurking. Their models seem to be continually adjusted to fit whatever assumptions seem to fit the desired response...or after the fact to reflect actual data but by then it's too late. Decision makers (e.g. elected pols) have other considerations, such as trying to avoid a long lasting economic Depression and the unpredictable and manifold negative consequences of that. Which is not to say that the "denier bloc" has it right, as they are likely quite wrong in their approach, to put it mildly.

If you can't see the irony in that, I don't know how to explain it further.

Another outcome that I think is possible is the end of major professional sports as we know them. Or at least the outrageous $ being made by Owners and Players. They will be the next cohort in line for Bailouts, you watch. I don't see how any league survives if all/most teams aren't allowed to play by their state/local authorities. France and Italy have already thrown in the towel on finishing this soccer season and others won't be far behind. Germany is pushing back any Bundesliga restart (which I really miss), as Mutti is nervous about R0 ramping back up. And Germany are the most competent ones it seems. MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, all done, in present formats.

Sort of perverse that the pandemic response being advocated, and largely followed, is being pushed by "experts" in the healthcare field, writ large. I don't know what the right answer is but you don't have to be an expert to figure out what the economic impact will be to the healthcare system as we're seeing it real time. At some point increased mortality due to non covid-19 causes will begin to register. Of course by the time that data shows up and is processed by "thought leaders", it'll only be good for the next serious pandemic response 100 years from now (and probably forgotten by then).