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Syrmax

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Everything posted by Syrmax

  1. I esp like the slug of RAIN shown from BGM-SYR-ROC. Makes it even more special.
  2. Geeziz...when Kuchera only gives you an inch or so...#YouAreF@cked
  3. Let him go...to the Mets!! Finally i have renewed interest now that the hated Wilpon's are out and we have a real owner.
  4. Few of us are consistently (or ever) good at timing stocks. Really takes a lot of attention and proper mindset... The big investment/trade thesis right now is a forward looking "Reflation"...as economy recovers. Makes some sense as a narrative...pent up demand particularly in the areas that have been hammered by covid (entertainment, travel, food, etc.). Not so much the "harder" sectors like say, Home Depot or cars or computers. People apparently did some of that extra buying in those areas last year but those aren't every-year purchases. You don't remodel a kitchen every year. So some spending was "pulled forward". This is why OIl & materials/metals are surging. The big thing i've been advised to watch is Bond yields and the USD. Noone knows at what point the market will respond but if the 10Y rate gets up over 120 or 150 bps we will probably start to see "issues" in stocks. Also High Yield debt (JNK and HYG) serve as (usually) decent indication of risk on/off appetite. IF the USD reverses and heads back up with rates...with everyone on the same side of the boat of the Reflation trade...beware. The Fed is already jawboning about more "Yield Curve Control" by purchasing MOAR long dated Treasuries...they already have the short end pinned at essentially 0 with "real" 2Y & 10Y rates (inflation adjusted) <0%. The Fed HAS to keep rates pretty low or everything literally blows up. If they "lose control" of the Treasury curve and rates blow out, that'll make the Corona hit look tame.
  5. I think Buffalo has a better chance of containing Lamar than KC would. If KC has an Achilles's heel its their defense although Mahomes obviously makes up for a lot of defensive sins. Would make for an entertaining game though.
  6. i've been doing a low carb diet, for the most part, since mid 2020 and have dropped 35-40 lbs. Had i not been drinking, i'd probably have lost another 15-20 lbs and be near my target weight. But it was 2020 so...sacrifices had to be made.
  7. I posted "soon many rains come" the other day, channeling my inner Dances with Wolves reference. Pretty arcane movie reference from 1990, but maybe spot on.
  8. Yeah I think we are actually in a new and unstable paradigm. And its debt related. Fed cannot stop printing bc treasury debt needs to be auctioned into market (and what isn't bought in auction is held/managed by Fed). QE forever is also keeping financial system liquid. If interest rates were ever allowed to normalize, everything blows up. Literally. So they can't. Same with Japan and Europe. China is a rigged economy and fin system but they're a Potemkin village and hide debt, half of which are bad loans... The $2T current account deficits are absurd. Not sure what the catalyst or timing of a correction will be but i suspect it will be fast and furious, like the last couple. The V shape recoveries seem to bail everyone out in shirt order and have become an expected norm also. I don't think any of this is sustainable but markets can remain irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent is the old saying.
  9. Don't disagree. But FED money printer go burrrrr...bc it has to...
  10. I'd agree with that. I've been calling this 2020 2.0 or 2020+1. Although, my stock trading has been going gangbusters since the election. So its not ALL bad. Bullshit walks, money talks.
  11. Finished reading this. Outstanding read. This pulls together a number of reports and backstories that I read very early on in the pandemic regarding the initial Wuhan outbreak emanating out of China and problems with the official story...before the CCP, the Western MSM and Big Tech silenced and deplatformed anyone looking at the origins of the pandemic in a serious manner. All due political narratives that had to be protected. And we think our media system is fundamentally different from China or Russia...LOL. The article does a great job of summarizing significant concerns with Gain of Function testing. Predictably, serious inspection into exactly what happened in Wuhan and the backstory was squashed by the CCP and became a radioactive subject in Western research communities as it shined a spotlight on the risks associated with GoF experiments...the Wild West research environment...and threatened funding streams. Predictable responses. As was the main stream media’s alignment with their political interests to not cover the story because...Trump was using it to beat China over the head in his Neanderthal manner (sorry Neanderthals). Queue up the usual racist, xenophobic labeling and non-thinking PC gibberish. Anything the buffoon Trump did or said had to be opposed or neutered, regardless of the issue. We don’t definitively know whether SARS-COV-2 popped up randomly on its own or whether it was lab engineered. No one does and it’s highly likely we will never know now. And this gets to my main concern with Fauci, who appears to me to be more of a reckless “scientist” that fücked things up and is now hiding under the cover of being the adult in the room “helping” us weather the storm. Granted, he is the anti-Trump in the public facing government, fawned over by the media and politically motivated class because Trump has been so clearly idiotic. Yet it’s entirely possible, perhaps likely, that GoF research that Fauci supported and advocated funding for, via NIH, is the genesis of SARS-COV-2. GoF has shown no demonstrable benefit in vaccine development against Corona viruses or other potential pandemic threats and may very well have, due to an accident and/or malfeasance, unleashed a Frankenstein’s monster onto humanity. The science community appears to have learned absolutely nothing from hard earned past experience of new technologies that had hazards which were under-appreciated or not fully understood (radioactivity as just one prime example). So I guess we’ll all wear masks forever.
  12. Good point. The Lefties are as triggered as the Rumpists over covid and their own demons and the urinal shadows they apparently see. If only we could prevent both camps from voting due to mental incapacity and have a centrist government of adults...
  13. Not directly covid related but indirectly via knock off effects...pay attention to what's happening in Bitcoin the past year. I've been putting smallish amounts into the Etherium coin over the past year and it is just getting going. These $2K checks and Universal Income concept will drive the US Dollar lower. Etherium is up 25% in Globex trade today and likely going much much higher. Will be a volatile ride and I wouldn't put $ you need into it, but the trend is relentless for a number of reasons...
  14. This is excessive. Check yourself. If there was Twitter-level moderation here, you'd be suspended.
  15. From what I have been seeing from legacy media outlets and the rest, i thought everyone in California had died already of Covid already. Huh.
  16. Interesting and thanks. A lot of shifting currents going on. I've seen anecdotal reports of lowered number of "accidental" type deaths due to "less going on" as a result of various restrictions and that makes sense.
  17. As a NYG fan, I'm ok if the Giants don't "win" the NFC East. The embarassment/notoriety of going to the playoffs at 6-10 might outweigh the benefit of getting in and getting curb stomped in the first round.
  18. One thing is for certain...the Browns fans will be rooting hard for the Bills sunday as I believe a Dolphins win gets them a WC spot over Cleveland even if the Browns defeat Pitt this weekend.
  19. I've been looking at excess mortality #s since early on and there has been an increase above what normally be expected in just about every nation that keeps track of this stat. Unfortunately, its hard/impossible to definitively separate true covid deaths from knock on effects of pandemic restrictions, which are real, and contribute to mortality. Possibly more real then some of the covid-19 cause of death assignments, at least in the US. Whether any of that is statistically significant remains to be seen. A lot of that type analysis will be "soft" in nature due to differing methods of assigning cause of death, etc. May be years before this is fully determined, if ever.
  20. I have seen info that points to Ivermectin as being a better option then Remdesivir by a wide margin. It's an anti parasite drug that's been around a long time so its pretty well understood in terms of side effects etc. There have apparently been dozens of small scale studies that point to its efficacy being quite remarkable... esp compared to Remdesivir. Off the top of my head not sure if it needs to be taken early on or not. News of it is apparently being squashed/ignored by big tech/media as it doesn't comport with the narrative in place. If I ever get this and need treatment I'll be asking for a scrip for that vs Remdesivir, which looks like it's much less effective
  21. Sad to hear about the long hauler. Hope she fully recovers. This has seemed to be a blood interactive / dependent disorder all along. One can argue mortality stats but the long haul effect is real and much different from ordinary flu. Thankfully its a low percentage outcome. Somewhat similar long haul effects were observed in the 1918 flu...never fully understood, nor were some people's seeming resistance to that flu, who were in susceptible age groups. Blood type suspected factor but never fully fleshed out. IMO 2020+1 (2021) will not be demonstrably different from 2020. Its telegraphed by the course of typical viral infection progressions and from the stated intention for indefinate continuation of "precautions" to continue irrespective of vaccine deployment. Certainly "life" and business will not be permitted to return to normal until 2022, at best. Another long haul effect to get one's mind around.
  22. Probably more like 5-6k deaths per minute once it peaks, according to the latest modeling. But, the good news is that even at that rate it'll take about a year to nom nom through most of the earth's population. So unless you're planning on living more than a year, I wouldn't get too fired up about it.
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