SnowDeac
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Everything posted by SnowDeac
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8 years for me as well! Normally, GSP is less bullish than the models, so this is an interesting change of pace. Hopefully they're right!
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I'm really trying not to have a complete meltdown at the moment. Only GSP's forecast for the metro area and points north is keeping me from throwing in the towel. I don't even know why I get emotionally invested at this point. Hoping for winter weather in CLT is like cheering for the Browns. Although, actually, the Browns are showing some promise this year.
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Looks like the north trend is still real.
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Yeah, Lucy is lurking with the football for Charlotte proper and south/east as well. Will be in Denver/Stanley on Sunday though, and they should do much better.
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Why doesn't the GSP WSW language match up at all with the GSP current expected snowfall maps? Seems odd. 2-6 for the metro sounds very reasonable, but the mountains could easily exceed 6-10.
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Must be more in the way of sleet or just plain rain. I assume the former? Do the Kuchera maps account for sleet?
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Shame on the glutton VA posters that always cash in pulling for the freaking NAM to devastate us southern folks. SHAME!
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I just, after 9+ years of lurking/occasionally posting, learned how to read a sounding. For some reason, I never realized the degree lines were diagonal. I'm normally a fairly bright guy, I swear.
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Brad is on point as usual, although I think sometimes he speaks too much in absolutes (re: high totals not even possibly verifying). Is Charlotte likely to get 10" as GSP is calling? Hell no. Is it possible? Yes.
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I feel like this gets asked for many storms, but unfortunately I can't find the answer. What would be better for temperature profiles this evening: if the cloud cover rolls in to keep daytime temperatures down, or clear skies to allow dynamic cooling? I assume the latter, but am also unsure if it makes much of a difference in this case.
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Interesting how Widre is now relatively positive and this PackWxMan dude is the heat miser that's easy to dislike. Not to say this won't be a bust, especially for fringe areas like CLT and RDU.
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Where is the other 1.5 in of QPF? Plain rain? It's not a ridiculous guess given climo and potential late north adjustments, but this seems very off base, given recent model trends.
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How can GSP possibly have 8 inches as the "low end" (90% likely for more) for CLT? That makes no sense to me, at all, especially given the high end is 13 and "predicted" is 12. AVL, for example, is 3 on low, 4 on predicted, and 13 on high. It seems they're completely discounting the NAM and assuming the profile will support snow for the vast majority of the storm. That doesn't seem likely at all, let alone 90% likely.
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Trends aren't good, but I'll stick with the government officials forecasting a foot, over a couple lousy model runs. At least for now.
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That would be absolutely insane, even given the last few years. A gradient of almost zero in Rock Hill to 2 feet in Mooresville is surely unprecedented. Fortunately, I'll be up in Denver for "early in-law Christmas" on Sunday. Although, I guess I could get stuck there...
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Is that not a warm nose jutting right into the southern metro area? I'm expecting an absurd gradient from Fort Mill up to Mooresville, as is often (almost always?) the case?
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Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE?
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Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.
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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
SnowDeac replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Any chance for NWFS behind this for the highest peaks? Seems like it would be a good time for it. -
Was driving in the worst part of that backside band after losing power at the office towards the airport. Crazy stuff. Debris flying around hitting my car, heard a transformer blow, lots of power lines sagging, street lights nearly horizontal, and saw one tree fall. Felt confident the worst gusts were 60+. I do have an Explorer with some clearance, but it was shaking even just sitting still at a light.
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This thing is going to be way, way worse for the mountains, northern piedmont, and triad if the HRRR verifies. With all of the rain they've already gotten, especially in the mountains, there's going to be a nasty mix of flooding, downed trees/power lines, and likely mudslides.
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Some serious weakening happening right now, via satellite imagery. Hopefully it continues quickly, as the mets are projecting. Obviously, none of the pros are really buying into that intense band on the western side of the storm.
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Areas east of Monroe around Wadesboro and up through Albemarle have just been getting trained on by this initial band all day long. They are going to flood big time tomorrow, I think.
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Heading down to Man of War Cay in the Abaco chain of the Bahamas on Wednesday. Forecast isn't looking so good. Hopefully the shower/thunderstorm activity is spotty and winds don't kick up. Also, end of the recent GFS run has a tropical storm making landfall in the gulf.
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Well, I'm headed to Banff/Lake Louise from the 22nd-27th, so I'm definitely going to see snow. Hope I get to see some falling from the sky and ski in fresh powder. Anybody know what might be the best site for tracking weather in western Canada? They've had an awesome year thus far, compared to most of the UT/CO resorts that are struggling. 50+ inches in the last week!
