Roger Smith

Final scoring for February 2024

__FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___TOTALS

rainsucks ________________________ 92 _ 98 _ 78 __ 268__ 61 _ 44 _ 56 __ 161 _ 429 _ 34 _ 60 _ 90 __184 ____ 613

wxallannj _________________________42 _ 56 _ 76 __ 174 __ 26 _ 56 _ 50 __ 132 _ 306 _ 52 _100 _ 96 __248 ____ 554

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 40 _ 60 __ 142 __ 18 _ 48 _ 60 __ 126 _ 268 _ 34 _ 92 _ 86 __ 212 ____ 480

BKViking _________________________36 _ 40 _ 52 __ 128 __ 08 _ 52 _ 38 __ 098 __226 _ 48 _ 98 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 454

DonSutherland1 _________________ 40 _ 48 _ 62 __ 150 __ 42 _ 42 _ 30 __ 114 _ 264 _  62 _ 70 _ 46 __ 178 ____ 442

Scotty Lightning _________________ 32 _ 36 _ 42 __ 110 __ 00 _ 60 _ 48 __ 108 _ 218 __ 22 _100_ 94 __ 216 ____ 434

___ Consensus __________________34 _ 40 _ 54 __ 128 __ 20 _ 44 _ 24 __ 108 _ 236 _ 34 _ 76 _ 86 __ 196 ____ 432

RJay _____________________________ 52 _ 56 _ 72 __ 180 __ 28 _ 44 _ 18 __ 090 _ 270 _ 62 _ 70 _ 66 __ 198 _(468)

RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ 47 _ 50 _ 65 __ 162 __ 25 _ 40 _ 16 __ 081 _ 243 _  56 _ 63 _ 59 __ 178 ____ 421

RodneyS _________________________ 18 _ 54 _ 52 __ 124 __ 33 _ 44 _ 44 __ 121 _ 245 __ 18 _ 44 _ 90 __ 152 ____ 397

so_whats_happening ____________ 40 _ 46 _ 68 __ 154 __ 47 _ 34 _ 00 __ 081 _ 235 _ 40 _ 44 _ 66 __ 150 ____ 385

Tom ______________________________ 24 _ 32 _ 54 __ 110 __ 12 __ 32 _ 12 __ 056 _ 166 _ 16 _ 82 _ 84 __ 182 ____ 348

___Normal _______________________ 12 _ 16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 00 _ 44 _ 18 __ 062 _ 122 _ 02 _ 70 _ 94 __166 ____ 288

wxdude64 ________________________ 08 _ 28 _ 40 __ 076 __ 12 _ 26 _ 12 __ 050 _ 126 _ 14 _ 48 _ 96 __ 158 ____ 284

Stormchaser Chuck ______________ 12 __16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 28 _ 00 _ 00 __ 028 _ 088 _ 42 _ 90 _ 56 __ 188 ____ 276

Rhino16 ___________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 05 _ 20 _ 16 __ 041 _ 057 _ 04 _ 66 _100__ 170 ____ 227

Roger Smith _______________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 05 _ 00__ 005 _ 005 _ 20 _ 94 _ 66 __ 180 ____ 185

___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____ 58 _ 78 _ 96 __ 232 __ 10 _ 34 _ 00 __ 044 _ 276 _ 00 _ 50 _ 74 __ 124 ____ 400

===================================

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC, BOS _ three wins for Rainsucks with highest forecasts. 

ORD _ Also a win for Rainsucks with highest forecast.

ATL _ A win for Scotty L with highest forecast.

IAH _ A win for hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast.

DEN _ A win for DonSutherland1 with highest forecast.

PHX _ A loss for BKViking and a win wxallannj and Scotty L with next highest forecasts. 

SEA _ Did not qualify as an extreme forecast.

I always figure high pressure will sit over deep snow packs in late winter, and there is a lot of snow on the ground in central to eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada, especially eastern NS and PEI. I would say watch for signals around 10-15 March for best chances of that one (perhaps) final event.

4.3" fell at Springfield, IL, 3.3" STL. 

Looks a bit better now, will go 2-4, did you see how 12z GFS run ends? A very cold shot after a few milder days. Could be a period to watch (early march). 

I am hoping for five of these to help my snowfall forecast. Edited my forecast re WV. 

This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (4-6" WV mtns). 

Unless it tracks n of current guidance, I can only see 0.8-1.5" potential in metro NYC, 2-4" se PA- cNJ and 3-5" md-DC-nVA-DE. Will take a look Friday p.m. at performance in midwest to see if I would adjust. 

22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If answered already then sorry but for DC proper what is onset  and end time?

Seeing 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. on latest guidance. could flurry to 8 a.m.

_ Tracking anomalies ...

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__ (anom Feb 1-14) ______ +6.4 _ +7.1 _ +6.2 __+12.1 _ +5.7 _ +4.6 __ +5.1 _ -2.3 _ +0.9

__ (p anom Feb 29) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +6.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __+3.0 _ -1.0 _ +1.5

___ (anom Feb) ___________+4.4 _ +4.2 _ +3.4 _ +10.7_ +4.6 _ +4.2 __+4.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.3

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

Snowfall to date ___________ 8.0 __ 7.5 __ 9.7 ____ 21.2 _ 22.6 _ 59.6 ___ 29.1 _ 0.0 _ 36.2

We can't even get it to snow properly here halfway up a mountain next to a ski resort, so really ... what chance does a subtropical coastal location have? 

It will snow again, milankovitch cycles will edge slowly in our favor by 15,000 AD. And we should be well past fossil fuels by then too. Lookin' good. 

A DC to Salisbury jackpot. Very interesting. 

It is a bit hit or miss for details before about 1850, I've found, knowing some other sources for European storms like a destructive windstorm in Ireland in Jan 1839 for which maps seem under-done on intensity, but yes it can be used in combination with the Alexis Caswell Providence RI weather diary to get a very good idea of what was going on even back a bit before the map series now starts.

In my thread in the climate change forum (NYC and Toronto weather records analyzed) I've got a link to Caswell's diary on line version, and also I compiled daily records for is 30-year period of obs (1831-60) including quite a few big snowstorms. Just off the top of my head, blizzards in Jan 1852, Dec 1853 around New Years eve, early Jan 1856 and the super cold outbreak blizzard of (around) Jan 21, 1857, so a very active period 1852 to 1857. That severe winter episode was followed within 2-3 weeks by record warmth and flooding rains (ice jams). 

It was not as active either side (but there's a very juicy looking storm around Feb 5, 1845 that I know dumped 15-20 inches on Toronto. Another historic storm where you can see some map details would be Jan 31, 1843, a pattern changer that led into a long interval of severe winter conditions in the U.S. midwest states (very harsh for two months in WI and IL). 

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

oh wow, I thought it would have been the late 90s, but it looks like the early-mid  50s had that beat.

 

In that interval (1949 to 1955) there were several brutal heat waves (1949, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1955, and a brief record-breaking burst of heat also in June 1956 followed by a cool, wet summer (but that was after the 6" daily snow drought ended anyway). Also in 1950 Jan and Nov all-time temperature records were set. 1951 was more moderate for warmth. There was actually a snowfall of 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 but 5.4" was its top daily amount in that event. (I looked to see what was the top snowfall in the lean snow period, think it was that one). Feb 1954 was a very  mild month also coast to coast, some all-time temperature records were set in Alberta. Even so, early spring of 1954 turned quite cold with some records set in early April. I wonder if you will see an early spring warm spell and a week or two of cold later in march  or April (like 1972 and 1982). 

Stats for Central Park NYC Feb 1899

Date __ max ___ min _____ Prec ___ Snow 

_ 01 ___ 21 _____ 12 _______ 0.01 ___ 1.0 __ 2.0" 2d (1.0" also Jan 31)

_02 ___ 35 _____ 16 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_03 ___ 40 _____ 28 _______ 0.12 ___ 0.0

_04 ___ 39 _____ 27 _______ 0.16 ___ 0.0

_05 ___ 35 _____ 26 _______ 0.15 ___ 1.0

_06 ___ 31 _____ 24 _______ 0.09 ___ 0.8 (1.8 2d)

_07 ___ 28 _____ 24 _______ 0.20 ___ 2.6

_08 ___ 31 _____ 11 ________ 0.30 ___ 3.9 (6.5 2d)

_09 ___ 11 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_10 ___ 07 _____-06 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_11 ___ 09 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_12 ___ 09 _____ 04 _______ 0.23 ___ 5.3

_13 ___ 11 _____ 06 _______ 0.47 ___ 10.7 (16.0)2d

_14 ___ 24 _____ 10 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_15 ___ 35 _____ 18 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_16 ___ 37 _____ 26 _______ 0.71 ___ 0.0

_17 ___ 47 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_18 ___ 45 _____ 36 _______ 0.43 ___ 0.0

_19 ___ 41 _____ 36 _______ 0.01 ___ 0.0

_20___ 49 _____ 36 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_21 ___ 53 _____ 40 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_22 ___ 52 _____ 41 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_23 ___ 46 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_24 ___ 34 _____ 26 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_25 ___ 40 _____ 22 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

_26 ___ 45 _____ 32 _______ 1.00 ___ Tr _

_27 ___ 50 _____ 36 _______ 0.03 ___ 0.0

_28 ___ 45 _____ 27 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0

avg,_ 33.9 ____ 21.8 ______ 3.91 ___ 25.3" snow

tot __ ___( 27.8 )___ __ __ __ (1.72" rain on days w/zero snow + any mixed in on snowfall days -- probably zero)

Ground was likely bare to traces on Jan 30, but frozen, 2" fell 31st-1st to start February, after a rainstorm (1.55") on Jan 24 near 50F probably removed any snow cover (no large falls in Jan before it). Temperatures fell below freezing around Jan 28 but only small amounts of snow fell  Jan 24 to 30. 

Low max readings are still daily records for Feb 10, 11, 12, 13. (Feb 9 11F broken by 8F in 1934) ...

Low min Feb 10, 11 still records; Feb 9 (-2) was broken in 1934. 

Note five consecutive days max temp 11 F or lower (Feb 9-13) leading up to blizzard. Not sure about reports for blizzard being on Feb 14, sources I consulted verify overnite Feb 12-13, low was closest to NYC 12z to 18z Feb 13 and in eastern Canada by Feb 14. Blizzard conditions probably persisted into Feb 14 due to strong winds. 16.0" of snow fell Feb 12-13 at NYC. 

Cold rainfall after snowstorm must have made a real mess of recovery efforts, wonder if it glazed over for part of Feb 16? Next rainfall on Feb 18 likely left a lot of slushy ponding, full snow melt likely in warmer days around Feb 20-22.

max 53F Feb 21 was a record (1869-1899) only to 1906 (58F), broken several more times since. 

A lot of rain fell in a cold second half of march and 3.0" snow on mar 7, 1.0" mar 25-26. April was reasonably warm and it was briefly very warm Apr 30 to may 2 (76, 84, 86) ... warmest part of summer was early June, several days in mid 90s June 5-8 and another notable cold spell came Oct 1-3 (max 51, 49, 52, min 42, 40, 38). 

Storm position s.e. of NYC at 18z Feb 13, 1899 from NOAA (wetterzentrale). 

http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

You could look back or forward to see rest of key events. Earlier 6.5" snowstorm was a coastal low also. First rainfall looked like a weak nor'easter, flow lifted in stages after Feb 17. 

Feb 14 1899 probably a ground blizzard situation, strong N-NW winds but likely sunny and cold above blowing snow. 

Possibly a very large spread IAD-DCA? I could see it being like 6" to 2" and BWI in between. 

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.

Could verify near-blizzard BOS south towards Plymouth and Taunton, but I believe best of this storm will be sCT into RI and se MA with BOS near northern edge of 5-8" band. Local 10 or even 12 inch amounts possible in sNE, too bad it's moving so fast tomorrow, will be good rates for 4-6 hrs. A sharp snowfall gradient likely north of a BOS-ORh -BDL axis. Very windy at times as low bombs for several hours around 12-18z. 

Long Island Sound convergence potential, will enhance rates over n metro NYC and into ne NJ, given rapid intensification over Atlantic, expect very strong wind gusts to develop in that zone also. Expected obs in zone would be S+ 31/30 0632G47. Near blizzard conditions could develop locally. Possible TSW also. 

Thinking around 4-6" JFK, 5-7" NYC, 8-10" LGA and EWR, 7-9" ISP and 10-12" sw CT. Would double expected snow (to 3-6) in central NJ, arctic front will be past ACY by 12z. Too bad it's so fast, could be a 20" type of event at a slower pace. Track is now locking into a perfect hit. Sharp n cutoff may be overdone, these storms often find a way to throw a bit of extra moisture north, but axis of heaviest snowfalls likely to be near e/c PA to n/c NJ to n shore of LI Sound. 

It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. 

Doctor No says maybe. 

Any mention on your local news of the emergency situation in eastern Nova Scotia and PEI? People are snowed in by that slow-moving storm last week, with 30-40 inches on the ground. Could be an opportunity for anyone with a plow on their pickup to contract some work as local crews are overwhelmed trying to keep major routes open. 

Last few days at Sydney, NS (converted to F and in): 

Date ___ max __ min _____ snow ___ snow depth

Feb 2 ___ 32 ___ 28 _____ 3.9 _______ 5"

Feb 3 ___ 31 ___ 29 _____ 16.1 _______11"

Feb 4 ___ 33 ___ 28 _____14.0 _______28"

Feb 5 ___ 33 ___ 32 _____ 4.4 _______41"

Feb 6 ___ 33 ___ 29 _____ 0.6 _______42"

winds have been N-NNE 25-35 mph so not severely drifted just a level or undulating 3-4 feet. 

It's an area used to snow and probably 2' cover is not unusual but 3-4 feet is trapping people in their residences.

Euro not as good, similar track but absence of colder air until storm explodes off coast. GFS holds the only promise of significant snowfall south of 40N. At this time range, not an entirely bad situation. 

I am seeing hints of a two-wave solution developing, that may work in your favor. 

I bet $18.99. 

12-18" will fall and 3.7" will be measured. 

I see some potential in that for two reasons, (a) it does not have very much warm advection, and (b) it develops a tight northeast to north gradient just as it's leaving land. It doesn't look like it wants to edge north which is also good, if it could edge south towards NC-VA border it could improve. 

1-3" first call. Wherever it does set up will get 4-6" but that looks to be se PA into s NJ at present. 

Blizzard of 1899 clone on Feb 18-19 gets your attention.