Roger Smith

June 3, 2023

A few days late but no doubt the hottest days of 2023 are some distance away ... so as always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports:

DCA

IAD

BWI

RIC

and I will start the ball rolling with 102, 102, 103 and 103.

Contest deadline 06z June 17 (which is Friday night).

Tie-breaker details in a post in thread (lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties)

June 2, 2023

I recall a lot of forest fires in ON and QC in spring 1977. But it is unusual to have this many at any time of year, summer tends to be fairly moist across the boreal forest regions north of the lower lakes.

Persistent high pressure over central to northern QC or north of Ontario quite unlikely past mid-June as the storm track almost always energizes across inland northern Canada in summer. So I would not expect this regime to persist, it may morph into a persistent high closer to New England and New York state if it doesn't collapse entirely.

It has been anomalously warm in north-central Canada since April so I am thinking there won't be very frequent below normal outbreaks into the Midwest at any point, and if the Midwest runs very warm, hard to avoid at least a moderate positive anomaly in the inland northeast U.S.

A few months in the past have seen much higher anomalies as far east as Toronto compared to NYC. Both July 1916 and 1921 were much warmer relative to normal in Toronto than in NYC. There's one place a ridge can set up, around MI-IN-KY-TN that spills heat into the lower lakes and OV but if persistent low pressure can form near 37N 72W then NYC can be alternating between subdued heat and cool, cloudy and sometimes wet intervals. (this was not the case in 2009 when a larger northeast flow extended well inland).

June 2, 2023

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

I cannot remember the Mid-Atlantic DC region being this dry in May into early June. Don’t know what that means heat wise and for hurricane season but worth noting.

1949 had a very dry spring and early summer, a hot June and more heat in July and August, cooled off somewhat in September, and returned to significant warmth in October. Late November was briefly cold but the winter of 1949-50 was among the mildest on record.

June 2, 2023

Wow, this contest may require an assistant director at this rate. There will also be about a dozen along from two other forums in UK and Ireland. I will rank them in but issue two ranking lists at end of play so you can see how you did against American Weather folk and the somewhat larger global field. Expert forecasts will be scored but ranked outside your ranks.

As I've been saying, you can edit away to end of Sunday June 4 without posting about it, as I have not collected the forecasts yet.

FAQ

1. January storm ... does it count? Yes, the contest asks you to predict the count at end of year.

2. December storms ... do they count? Yes, same as above.

3. Tropical depressions not reaching TS status, not named, not in the count -- these do not count unless re-analyzed before Dec 31st.

4. Storms that have two active life cycles. They count as one as per NOAA protocols.

5. Prizes? Yes, promotion to PGA tour. You must also excel at golf and qualify some other way. So it's not a real prize.

6. Prestige? I think so, if you can beat 50 people and the recognized experts, that says something.

7. Same forecast as somebody else ... up to you to check for this, earliest post ranks higher.

8. Medicanes, South Atlantic canes ... no, and no.

SCORING SYSTEM

will be same as past two years, explained with table of forecasts in a few days. Basically, you lose fewer points for errors in storm count than in hurricane and major counts (this after that season with the 30 count that gave almost everyone a negative score).

Decimal forecasts are allowed and are scored from their precise values.

June 2, 2023

Years with significant heat in early June sometimes see a return to that heat on several more occasions (e.g., 1919, 1934) but another outcome is a rather cool mid-summer and more heat in September (1895, 1925). I suspect this will turn into a relatively hot summer with a few cool and wet intervals, in this climate, harder to avoid east coast ridge building over the anomalously warm NAtl.

It is also quite warm out here and pushing up a bit higher each day to mid-week.

My idea for the summer pattern in general is that it may be prone to severe heat waves in central states and the western interior, and that the east will alternate between near average and hot spells with a bit of a westerly rather than south-westerly flow bias which can mean a rather dry regime, but no doubt with a few interruptions.

June 1, 2023

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Spring segment

Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3.

FORECASTER _________ Winter TOTAL __ Points ____ MAR __ APR __ MAY ___ TOTAL __ Spring Points ___ TOTAL points

RJay _________________________1879 _____ 10 _________ 481 ___ 640 ___ 640 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 15

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1675 _____ 4 ___________476 ___ 648 ___ 700 ____ 1824 ____ 10 ________ 14

___ Consensus _______________1682 _____ 4.3 ________ 447 ___ 605 ___ 720 ____ 1772 ____6.9 ________ 11.2

DonSutherland1 _____________ 1722 _____ 6 __________ 513 ___ 592 ___ 656 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 11

wxallannj ____________________ 1699 _____ 5 __________ 477 ___ 588 ___ 700 ____ 1765 ____ 6 _________ 11

RodneyS ____________________ 1760 ______7 __________ 463 ___ 528 ___ 552 ____ 1543 ____ 1 __________8

wxdude64 __________________1518 ______ 1 ____________465 ___ 652 ___ 656 ____ 1773 ____ 7 __________8

Roger Smith ________________ 1626 _____ 3 ___________ 271 ___ 552 ___ 586 ____ 1409 ____ 1 __________ 4

Scotty Lightning ___________ 1147 ______ 1 ____________502 ___ 562 ___ 612 ____ 1676 ____ 3 __________ 4

so_whats_happening _______ 1620 _____ 2 ___________ -- --___ -- --___ -- --____ -- -- ____ 0 __________ 2

BKViking ___________________ 1576 ______ 1 ___________ 355 ___ 537 ___ 688 ____ 1580 ____ 1 __________ 2

Tom ________________________ 1545 ______ 1 ___________ -- --___ 591 ___ 690 ____ 1281 ____ 1 __________ 2

Rhino 16 ____________________ -- -- _____ 0 ____________ 389 ___ 630 ___ 656 ____ 1675 ____ 2 _________ 2

___ Normal _________________ 1076 _____ 1 _____________ 422 ___ 538 ___ 610 ____ 1570 ____ 1 __________ 2

StormchaserChuck _________ 674 (1/3) _ 0 ____________-- --___ 580 ___ 632 ____ 1212 ____ 1 __________ 1

June 1, 2023

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.7 _ +0.3 _ +2.2

101 __ 102 __ 100 ____ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 103 _ 119 _ 98

May 31, 2023

If May ends with 1.28" rain it will be 13th driest of 155 (1869-2023) at NYC, the top 20 dry Mays are:

Rank ___ Year ____ Prec

_01 ____ 1887 ____ 0.34

_02 ____ 1903 ____ 0.50

_03 ____ 1964 ____ 0.57

_04 ____ 1880 ____ 0.62

_05 ____ 1905 ____ 0.72

_06 ____ 1939 ____ 0.89

_07 ____ 1877 ____ 0.95

_08 ____ 1935 ____ 1.05

_09 ____ 1899 ____ 1.09

_10 ____ 1944 ____ 1.18

_11 ____ 1911 _____ 1.25

_12 ____ 1962 ____ 1.26

_13? ___ 2023 ____ 1.28

_t14 _ 1875, 1959 _ 1.33

_16 ____ 1902 ____ 1.35

_17 ____ 1987 ____ 1.45

_18 ____ 1909 ____ 1.47

_19 ____ 2005 ____ 1.48

_20 ____ 1910 ____ 1.49

(21) ____ 1993 ____ 1.56

Median value (rank 78) is 3.56"

May 31, 2023