Festus

Poof. Thanks. Too many windows open at once.

Here's this mornings Mount Holly AFD regarding the weekend storm. It's a shame we're stuck with CTP. All eyes remain on the late week period with the potential for a strong coastal storm to affect portions of the Eastern Seaboard. In short, there has not been much change to the forecast philosophy nor the gridded forecast. Overnight guidance, minus the 0z EC, generally favored a further offshore and less impactful evolution from this storm versus yesterday`s 12z runs. But at this stage, it is difficult to say whether these runs are any more reliable than those of yesterday, which generally showed a higher impact event. The storm threat remains, and we will be continuing to monitor. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent.

Same shit...different day. Except DP is 19 now. Too funny. Is anyone getting anything from this so far? What's moving through Pittsburg right now doesn't look too bad.

Bupkis has been replaced by light snow. Temp 33. Nice to look at but that's about it for now.

As has been the case here recently, blue overhead on radar, slate gray sky ... and ... bupkis. DP is 16 so sure looks like bupkis will continue for quite a bit longer.

If modeled snow actually happened…Reality…

Heating that 0 dewpoint air to 70 gives an RH of a whopping 6% Probably the thing I detest the most is the feeling of moisture getting wicked away from every nook and cranny. And for today's interesting fact, the global highest temperature in the past 24 hours was 115 in Australia. And the coldest was -66 in Russia. In fact, the top 15 coldest past 24 hour readings were all from Russia. No wonder they want to invade Ukraine. At least it's a little warmer there.

Climate Prediction Center long range forecast released yesterday shows way below average temperatures for the next 6 - 10 days, average for days 8 - 14 and a February torch for their 1 month outlook.

Yep. CTP southeast counties just added.

WWA issued for Berks and Chester counties down this way. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 3 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

All this long range eye candy is making me giddy. Since it takes a little over a month for air to traverse the globe, maybe the southern storm can come back around a little more tucked next month. Now we just need to lobby for a 768 GFS panel. And how does Accuweather manage those daily forecasts 3 months out anyway? Calling for a little rain on Easter Sunday (April 17th). Bummer. But at least the high will be 66.

Thackara just forecasted 2 - 3" for York and Lancaster and less N & W based on "updated guidance". Therefore, max will be a coating lol.

Well this sucks. No model showing anything. Anyone have access to the GRAPES model (Chinese)? That's gotta show a MECS to at least induce some panic.

Agree on early January and cold leading up to event so no surface temp or sun angle shenanigans. Would need some kind of bomb and stall or crawl scenario. At least 60 - 72 hour duration. Thundersnow in the evening for max effect (Cantore doing live feed and chasing the lightning would be icing on the cake). Also agree on not too much wind as power outages not cool. 30 - 40" for most. Want to get right on the edge but not risk structural collapse. Probably pressing that a bit at 3' though. So max snow but minimal damage to life and property.

As we debate the various X-ECS, riddle me this. If you could design the perfect winter storm for PA, how would it evolve, what features would be where and when, etc. Must use parameters that are in the realm of possibility.

The literal "in my backyard" pic. Sure hope most of you folks are a little whiter. And what's up with Wednesday night? All of a sudden I have a Snow Likely in my grid forecast.

39/37 with grass showing through and some spots bare already. With DP above freezing, my "snow pack" is on life support. Meh, next.

Just started.

26/15 here. Blue on the radar and the sky has "the look" but flakeless so far.

Yup. Definite downgrade for those a few counties deep west of the river. And my grid forecast says gusts to 50 on Monday. Wind Advisory lurking. A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thanks. Very interesting and enlightening. WAY back when (we're talking the Barry Walton era), I was a Meteorology major at Millersville but alas, I switched to Physics and and moved on from there. But I've always retained weather as a hobby and have the upmost respect for those who practice the craft in the real world. Your outputs can effect and in many cases save people's lives. Thanks for your work. It is much appreciated!

I think the "official" measurement will be over but it will be so squished and watered down by Monday morning the it will look like 1" tops. And that's what the non-weenies will say happened and harass the mets for busting.

Quick question - when you analyze a complex storm like this and have to nail down an exact forecast, what's the mechanism? Do you just blend model output or factor in some forecasting experience that no model can reproduce? If the latter, what's the relative weighting? Just curious how it works in your world. Thanks!

2" -4" in my grid forecast. Guessing the consolation prize of a WWA forthcoming sometime this afternoon. Certainly not commensurate with the amount of time I spent on these boards the last week lol.

York now added to the WSW. Kudos to whoever said the river would be the dividing line.