SACRUS

Past June departures, at least the warmest since 2011 likely. EWR: 2019: +.3 2018: -0.3 2017: +0.5 2016: +0.3 2015: -0.4 2014: +0.4 2013: +0.8 2012: 0 2011: +2.0 2010: +3.8 LGA: 2019: +0.6 2018: +1.4 2017: +1.5 2016: +1.2 2015: -0.9 2014: +0.3 2013: +1.8 2012: +0.7 2011: +0.4 2010: +3.8 NYC: 2019: +0.2 2018: +0.2 2017: +0.6 2016: +0.8 2015: -0.2 2014: +1.0 2013: +1.2 2012: -0.4 2011: +0.9 2010: +3.2

Missed all but a sun shower since Friday where i was lucky to get 0.10. Perhaps with the ULL now forecast to be close by and essentially over the region bewteen 6/30 and 7/3 maybe we can see some widespread rains. We shall see if models start showing anything more widespread. Past ULL in May and last week had some decent rains where the ULL st for a few days.

June departures through 6/24 (7 days to go). I remeber last year with the searing heat in the Southeast and now into the northeast. Sandwiched so far. EWR: +1.6 NYC: +2.0 LGA: +3.2 JFK: +0.5 TTN: +1.1 CAR: +5.7 ALB: +4.1 BTV: +3.0

Clouds hauling through with a more westerly wind now and p to 78. Where as yesterday was below forecast today with a more westerly flow may out do guidance similar to monday. So ares will approach or reach 90, enhanced by the recent dryness. Sat and Sunday should see temps again exceed 90 in a more widespread fashion ahead of the next trough and subsequent ULL. Overnight runs with the return of the onshore flow that went let go until Independence day weekend. This time the ULL cut off may be closer by and muddy up 6/30 - 7/3 with more with clouds and rain then sunny cool and dry weather we had the past two where the ULL was much further south. I do think we warm things up by Sat/Sun (7.4 -7/5) and the week beyond the 4th holiday.. Get the flow N / NW and 850 temps are an ocean of >18C. These tendencies of ULL that linger 4 - 6 days may finally see that progression north and east of the area beyond the first week of July. Overall

260 hours to go. Guidance still varying on when the flow goes more NW/W but still looks like after a few days (6/30 - 7/2 or 3) of onshore flow we heat things up the fourth of July weekend. Still need to watch if a ULL fully cuts off and is pushed southwest similar to May and last week but the weekend may prove to get on the warmer flow of the ULL whether pushing inland (SW) or pushing east.

6/23 New Brnswck: 92 TTN: 90 PHL: 90 EWR: 88 LGA: 87 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 BLM: 85 ISP: 82 JFK: 82

Noon Roundup: New Brnswck: 86 LGA: 86 NYC: 85 EWR: 85 TEB: 85 PHL: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 ACY: 81

10AM Roundup: LGA: 84 New Brnswck: 82 EWR: 82 ACY: 81 NYC: 81 BLM: 81 TEB: 81 ISP: 81 JFK: 79 TTN: 79 PHL: 78

9AM LGA:82 ACY: 80 EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 80 BLM: 79 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 77 TTN: 76 PHL: 76

Looks like clouds and storms over W-PA should reach the area between 2 and 3 PM, lets see what they look like by then. Cached image will show wrong date so not worth posting it.

Very good point as seen in the last two cutoff ULL migrations. add a day or two vs model projections. Suspect the period would be 6/30 - 7/2 or 7/3 before the flow turns on the heat by 4th of July weekend. Alternately we can see a scenario where the flow stays more northerly pushing down the heat during that period. I would lean towards the onshore flow for a few days to open the month. With enough clouds maybe the GFS was onto something unusually cool for a day to two before the heat can filter in.

Up to 78 off a low of 67 here. Overnight runs continue a warm pattern only interrupted 6/30 - 7/2 (or 3rd) by an onshore component before more heat comes in for Independence Day weekend. ECM did show this feature on the 00z guidance while GFS warmer than the Monday runs. Tendency has been for ridging to build north so that period is likely to see heat muted for a 3-4 day window. Beyond there July looks to sizzle for much of the nation. Days near or exceeding 90 : 6/23,24, 27, 28, 29, before a few days of cooler.

Overall looking like very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance. ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions. Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go...

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

1PM ROunup LGA: 93 EWR: 91 BLM: 90 NYC: 89 New Brnswck: 89 TEB: 88 ACY: 87 ISP: 87 JFK: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 85

Noon roundup; LGA: 90 EWR: 89 TEB: 88 New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 87 JFK: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 (still some moisture in the overgrowth) ISP: 84 ACY: 84 PHL: 83

11AM Roundup LGA: 89 ISP: 87 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 BLM: 85 NYC: 85 ACY: 84 JFK: 84 TTN: 82 PHL: 81

Already 84 degrees here on what should be so far the hottest day of the season . Overnight guidance continues with a warm outlook, forecasting above normal temps overall and sveral bouts of heat. Next few days upper 80s low 90s (exceeding when mostly sunny and enhanced by recent dryness) before front pushes through with trough Wed PM - Fri. Warm back up Sat (6/27) to Mon (6/29). Ridge builds north again and we likely see some onshore component 6/30 - 7/2 but still looks warm. Once the flow goes more NW/W by thr 3rd it should be off to the races for the 4th of July weekend.

Last few runs of the GFS, Euro / ensembles showing strong ridging building into the region by 6/30 but flow could be onshore before going more NW/WNW by Jul 3. Looking hot by the 4th right now.

A dry park could rack up a few 90s this week and next weeked. Ill go 2-3 between 6/22 - 6/30 in the park and 4 or 5 in LGA/EWR.

Today's Highs (6/21) TEB: 88 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 LGA: 88 EWR: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 82 BLM: 82

ENS showing more NE (onshore-ish) Jul 2-4 as ridge centers north again. But it is turning more N/NW as it progresses.

Up to 77, evaded the rain but was mostly cloudy from about 3:00 on after a high of 87 on Saturday. Flow is still southerly today more Florida type weather and with more sun temps will again mid- upper 80s possible closing in on 90 in the wrmer spots. Warm patter 6/22 - 6/25 ech day possible reaching 90 and the seasons first heatwave for some is likely. Storms possible with front wed pm/ thu then warmer air returns as ridging pushes east towards next Saturday. We'll see how and where the ridge centers with the tendency to go north and create more onshore flow. This time it could get more North / NW component to open July hotter and sustained for a period... Happy Fathers Day!

6/20 Highs LGA: 88 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 NYC: 86 New Brnswck: 86 ACY: 85 TTN: 85 PHL: 84 BLM: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 82