SACRUS

75/ 60 after low of 57. E / ENE flow and continued partly sunny. More low / mid 80s Tue (8/16) and Wed (8/17) as we evade the rains and the cut off pulls out into Northern New England. Warmer by the end of the week and a outside chance some of the warmer and now even drier areas can get to 90 Fri (8/19). This weekend looks very nice again with what appears to be plenty of sunshine and warm weather. The Western Atlantic Ridge is building back west and rising heights into the east coast and trough forced back into the GL. Overall warm to hot at times and humid with rain chances ala Florida style pattern, the last 10 days of the month.

8/15 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 EWR: 83 NYC: 83 LGA: 83 TT: 82 JFK: 82 ISP: 80 ACY: 80 BLM: 78

Easterly winds have cleared clouds from most of the region. Bright / deep blue skies now 84 / 51 here. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

19 days at central park and 4 days stuck at 89 (so far). Wouldn't rule out some of the warmer/drier spots touching 90 once or twice by the 23rd. This is the setup that favored LGA (2018/19) vs EWR etc. Maybe by this weekend (Thu / Fri) but S/ESE flow may muddy that up.

86/ 50 . Onshore / southerly flow train next few days and what could be come the next few weeks overall. Trough is cut off but so it seems if the rain for the most part. Partly cloudy today, onshore flow and low / mid 80s. More of the same Tue (8/16) and Wed (8/17) perhaps more showers possible along the shore. Cut off pulls out later Wed and Thu (8/17) and into the weekend, humid, warmer. First shot back at 90 / lows 90s in the warmer spots Thu and Fri. Weekend looking warm / humid as trough backs into the GL and warm along the coast. Overall warm to hot (at times) last 10 days of the month. Perhaps the humid flow gets daily or frequent pop up shower ala Florida style.

8/14 New Brnswck: 86 PHL: 85 TEB: 85 TTN: 83 LGA: 83 ISP: 82 JFK: 82 NYC: 82 EWR: 82 ACY: 81 BLM: 80

We were in the midst of record heat 20 years ago in 2002 and 2005 today and the next few days.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

80 / 53 after a low of 54. SE wind and clouds moving through but should clear up later today and more mid 80s. Caught between two ridges and now way out as Trough cuts off later today through Wed (8/17), and maybe in such a way it cuts off the rain or most rain S of SNE. Models dry now but still wouldnt rule out surprise rains Tue night (8/16) into Wed (8/17). Rockies / Plains ridge pushing into Pac NW, Western Atlantic Ridge being pushing west by next weekend Sat (8/21). Warmer, more humid southerly flow develops and with it some daily rain chances. Humid and overall warmer to hot at times (90s or better) perhaps late season heatwave criteria (8/22-24) last 10 days of the month. Way out there but could home brewed tropics awaken.

8/13 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 83 ACY: 82 EWR: 82 ISP: 81 JFK: 81 TTN: 81 TEB: 80 BLM: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 79

From 58 now to a gorgeous 71 / 41. Just a great weekend in store, lots of sunshine and dry low to mid 80s for most. Trough closes off Mon (8/15) through Wed (8/17) will it rain or will it miss. Still think we can squeeze some out of this setup Tue (8/16) and Wed (8/17). Rockies/Plains ridge runs wild in the WC , Western Atlantic Ridge slowly builds back by next weekend Sat (8/20). Trough is lifting some by Fri (8/19) and a warmer / more humid flow develops, making way for an overall warm - hot (90s or better at times) and humid last 10 days or so of the month. With this setup comes storm and pop up shower chances to potentially make up the deficits.

8/12 New Brnswck: 88 EWR: 88 PHL: 87 JFK: 87 TEB: 85 TTN: 85 LGA; 85 ISP: 85 NYC: 85 BLM: 84 ACY: 83

75/ 56 and just gorgeous as skies are clearing. Mid upper 80s today and the 90s streak ending for those who continued Wed and Thu. Heat capped next 7 - 8 days. Sat (8/13) and Sun (81/4) looking marvelous dry / low humidity and highs a bit below normal in the 80s. Mon (8/15) , Tue ( 8/16) and Wed (8/17) cut off / ULL moving through in s some capacity as trough closes off with Rockies / Plains ridge ballooning into the Pac NW and the Western Atlantic Ridge stubborn and pushing against the trough into the East coast. Models meandering the rain in and around the area, still to be worked out how much rain does or doesnt fall. Potential there from some soaking. By the end of next week Fri (8/19) the Western Atlantic ridge is pushing west and forcing a more humid / warm southerly flow that with it comes its own chance for Florida style showers and storms. Overall warm to hot and humid last 10 days of the month.

8/11 New Brnswck: 92 EWR: 92 LGA: 91 TEB: 90 PHL: 90 NYC: 89 TTN:88 ISP: 88 BLM: 87 JFK: 86 ACY: 85

8/11 New Brnswck: 92 EWR: 92 LGA: 91 TEB: 90 PHL: 90 NYC: 89 TTN:88 ISP: 88 BLM: 87 JFK: 86 ACY: 85

2PM Round up EWR: 90 (40 on the year) New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 88 NYC; 86 TEB: 86 ACY: 85 TTN: 85 LGA: 85 JFK: 84 BLM: 84 ISP: 83

Philly the big winner with the rains over night PHL: 1.60 BLM: 0.86 New brnswck: 0.40 JFK: 0.35 EWR: 0.15 LGA: 0/13 NYC: 0.11 ISP: 0.02

74/70 0.37 in the bucket. SKies clearing by 11AM. Warmer spots could grab another 90. EWR to 40? Trough builds in Fri (8/12) through Wed (8/17) and closes off at times, cooler, wetter especially Mon (8/15) - Tue (8/16) as cut off spins ULL through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Rockies / Pains Ridge heads west to the WC/Pac N-w as the Western Atlantic ridge is pushed down. Caught between the two ridges as trough builds down and cant move it out, so it will be forced back the following week. Highs near / below normal. Western Atlantic Ridge starts to return west by Thu (8/18) and begins to push trough into the GL, with more humid /warm southerly / onshore flow an likely wetter pattern overall. Heat potential returns last 10 days of the month.

8/10 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 90 EWR: 90 TEB: 88 JFK: 88 TTN: 88 ACY: 88 NYC: 87 ISP: 86 LGA: 86 BLM: 85

8/10 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 90 EWR: 90 TEB: 88 JFK: 88 TTN: 88 ACY: 88 NYC: 87 ISP: 86 LGA: 86 BLM: 85

Still working with 850 MB temps >15c for most part. Today and tomorrow, pending on sun, could get the warmer / drier spots to 90, more into CNJ/NE NJ usual spots before the cooler air arrives later Thu. While these next two days may over perform on high temps, the weekend could have a tendency to cloud up and under perform, perhaps monday and tuesday as well.