NEGa

Just now, oconeexman said:

Seen alot of snow in my time..from the late 70's as a kid then early 80's and esp the Jan 88 bomb. I have never seen flakes this big..ever! Splattered on my phone and covered half of an S8. Literally half of a dollar bill.

Sweet lol. We are getting a mix of everything I think - sleet snow and freezing rain.

Mostly sleet now - picked up about a quick half inch of snow. Maybe a few flakes but not many. The temp had gone below freezing now at 31

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

guess we will see how well the hrrr does here as it shows the 750mb warm nose screaming in changing it back over to mostly sleet in just 2 hours. Still, you should do well due to the high rates. Looks like via CC radar it's very close to changing over in gainesville too...wouldn't be surprised if they are seeing some sleet mixed in now....pretty amazing how fast that entire area switched over. 

 

It did change quickly I was surprised. I saw the warm nose, but at least I am used to that in ga storms.   Fortunately as long as it stays frozen its a good winter storm by my low standards lol. It’s pretty coming down for sure

5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

A lot of what I thought was rain earlier was mainly sleet, may actually have an inch of that on top of the partially melted snow from earlier. Now it just keeps flipping constantly. At times it’s mainly snow, and then it’ll flip mainly sleet and mix in between the flips. Hoping to flip all snow before the heaviest gets hear in a couple hours. Still can’t get that dry easy wind that everyone else is getting though.

Ah ok whew lol. I was worried if you were back to rain it may get be short lived here. You are getting any decent wind gusts? They are topping out near 30 mph around here. Hopefully we can keep it all frozen overnight 

6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Models doing a fairly good job with that changeover as they generally showed it happening around 02 to 03z. Snowing in cornelia at the last observation too. 

Yep that’s sort of near me lol.  It is all snow and just pouring down right now. Think the change over was about 915-930 to go to all snow

Snowdawg are you back to sleet? Started a mix of sleet and snow a few min ago and the back deck is already getting crusty. 

And just like that it changed to sleet and before I could go out and confirm and post it mix d with snow lol. Coming down at a good clip too

Glad folks are seeing some froz n precip. Still pouring rain and 34 ugh. The winds are gusting in the upper 20s mph range 

19 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Interestingly many of the models hand a handle on this showing slightly warmer temps for a few hours in the mid levels before cooling back down. 

Wind is really starting to howl out there now...gusting over 20 here...yucky 38. 

Winds have picked up big time - but the temp is still hovering around 34 or 35. Over an inch of rain so far (a very cold rain)

What a waste of precip - almost an inch lol. The dew point is starting to drop - at 34 now 

The wind seems to be picking up so hopefully temps will start dropping here soon lol. It’s 35 and rain. 

Snowdawg saw the snow picks nice!

glad the upstate is getting some mix now too. Y’all send it this way lol

9 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Pulling hard for ne ga folks and us. Temp dropped 2 degrees here in the last hour..down to 36

You and me both lol. Still rain here with the temp holding steady

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Right at 2,000 feet. Not even very far from the highway, so I’d assume the higher elevations and far northern end of the county are sticking good right now.

That’s a pretty decent elevation. I am just 1800 and usually in a good spot for CAD events. Although my temp isn’t really moving, still at 36 lol

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Any time precip gets heavy it is now mostly snow here. Temp down to 34

I know Rabun has a huge variation in elevation - do you know what yours is?

1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Looks like it's changing over in rabun county. Now some 31/32 degree temps at tallulah and highlands. Even though saturated, tallulah feel 3 degrees in 2 hours. 

That’s very encouraging, esp since tallulah isn’t that far away

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Mixed bag of sleet, rain, and when heavy big sloppy snowflakes in Clayton. Temp is at 35.3

Send it on down this way please lol. 36 here but appears to be all rain. 

Light rain and 37. Dewpoint is still up there at 36

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot.

Wow that is amazing lol. I just wish the wedge would start building down so we can see at least something frozen 

14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I'd check the counties. Cause my WSW just issued by them covers portions of Western NC, NW upstate, and far NE GA and it has a ridiculously wide range of 2 to 17 inches.

I noticed that too - a huge discrepancy in elevation in their cwa. They usually separate out into several different, more specific language though. I have never seen them that combined (at least that I can remember). I do find it odd how their warning language does not really seem to match their accumulation maps

9 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Pretty big reduction in snow over N GA Mtns. though after a pretty long trend in the other direction. Substantially more ice and sleet. I’d rather miss completely than have anywhere near the ice that 12k NAM put out. Our forests would be devastated with that and the gusty winds expected.

The forecasts and models are all over the place. Warnings have gone out but point and click has no accumulation. CAD fo my area, at least is usually freezing rain or sleet, rarely snow. Not surprised but was hoping to get some heavy snow here - an inch of ice is quite a lot lol

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol

You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon   tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip. 

I am definitely liking how it looks better this morning, but being on the edge, especially the southern edge, always makes me nervous lol.  it is early December so expectations are tempered (but excitement over the possibilities the models are showing is not tempered).  I have seen it 31 and raining so hard it just never really gets a glaze going.  at least it looks like the chances of the higher ice accumulations are down. I love a good ice storm but like to keep my power on  

41 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

 

 

 

 

 

its hard for here as well since its such a close call.  I am hoping the slightly south trends mean the CAD will be coming in a little stronger. However, historically for NE GA, at least, CAD events are ice ice baby.  Sometimes a front end thump of snow but usually ice (since I am apparently one of the "odd ones" who enjoys all winter wx a good ice storm doesn't really bother me).  my issue with a good glaze is more how heavy the precipitation is. if its too heavy and not into the 20s it might not really ice over all that much

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Any board members out in far western NC or extreme NGA need to wake up and start measuring!  Some really early action in store for them with a rather healthy finger of precip.  Incredibly long event in store this weekend.  Good luck!

Light rain and 37 here with a dew point of 36.  waiting for the action to really start tomorrow lol

I can’t believe I woke up and the storm is still showing up - even more so that there is still quite a bit of consistency lol.  The thing that strikes me for ne ga and the upstate, st least, is the snow amounts with a CAD.  We may get a front end thump of snow but for the most part CADs here are not deep enough for snow but mostly ice. Even if we do get snow most big storms of this set up usually mix with or change to sleet then freezing rain. If the “second” shot moves through as snow on top of ice that would be a sight to see for sure

1 hour ago, Lookout said:

after a ho hum run this morning,  this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go. 

 

 

I’ve learned over the years to not too excited too far out. Sunday and Monday runs were interesting - now with the consistency and getting closer it’s hard not to start getting pumped up a bit lol. So far things are looking interesting for ne ga - if we can get some of the lower dewpoints in we could be in business. Side note - after 70 Sunday and a warm Monday currently it’s 35 lol