NEGa

It’s really coming down - around 1/2” on the deck. The flakes are a pretty decent size. They were really small when it started lol

Just now, oconeexman said:

Painful watching this rain/snow not being all snow! Temp finally dropping 35

Ugh hope it changes soon. I was stuck at 35 for a while before it dropped pretty fast

The temp has dropped to 32 with the steadier snow.

The snow is really picking up here. The deck is starting to turn white. 

Hang on lilj hopefully you change soon.

Starting to get a little ice on the deck. It’s picked up a bit

Light snow & 35

Glad to see snow reports coming in from ga now. Hopefully that means something here soon lol. It’s down to 35 and breezy

5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I  think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).

Yes it is although with all the changes with the amounts for my forecast I am still really wary lol. It’s been holding at 38 all afternoon so far. 

38 dew point 29 and cloudy

Current temp 36 with a dew point of 29. What I am really liking is the wedge is coming in and it’s obvious lol. There is quite a ne wind right now.  Usually when a storm is a complete bust I don’t  notice the wind before hand. This morning it is quite noticeable yay

10 minutes ago, msuwx said:

It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off.

Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick?

To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. 

I know right. I am really getting excited now since I will admit i enjoy all types of winter precip and a big winter storm is about a day away.  Maybe everyone is resting getting ready to be up a while lol

41 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro is just an absolute crush job for north east Georgia and the northwestern upstate,sc. 

it starts ripping snow around midnight and the warm nose doesn’t move through until the dry slot arrives around 7-8am. 

I have seen that and it’s hard to believe lol. Honestly in n ga I usually expect at least a period of a mix or change to sleep or ice. I would love to top 6” 

Winter storm watch already hoisted and its quite early for a southern snow system.  they have 6-10" in NE GA with more at the higher ridges.  Unbelievable

36 minutes ago, Lookout said:

A word about the icon for north ga folks, looking at full soundings there isn't much difference between the 06z and 12z run with respect to soundings and the threat of a front end hit of snow.. I'm a bit baffled to be honest why it cut totals.  Surface through the mid levels look  cold. Might be foolish to worry about such minor details at this range but can't help myself. 

12z Canadian is also lovely.

at this point I am just happy to still see a good winter storm. even if you cut the totals in half thats a decent storm in my book.  the huge totals rarely end up verifying.  also, usually with this type of storm there is a period of change over or mix to sleet/freezing rain, whether the models show it or not.  

all in all it looks like a lot of us are going to have a nice winter storm this weekend.  I remember when the CADs always seemed to end up stronger than the models were showing.  this hasn't seemed to have been happening a lot the last several years so it would be nice to have a CAD roar in for a change lol

1 hour ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

 

I do too.  It is also something I have been thinking about (the 10-20 years ago storms). 10 -20 years ago almost all wedges and CADs ended up colder than the models were showing, which is where we all got the "it will trend colder" from.  Sometimes significantly and markedly colder. however, for the last couple of years, we all talk about the trending colder and expect it yet it is just not happening and a lot of us end up at 33 or 34 with rain.  the models still aren't that great, but they do appear to be handling the colder air a bit better.  I cannot really remember a storm in the last couple of years that trended much colder and ended up with a surprise storm or more ice than anticipated.  

while I remain optimistic and hopeful, I am no longer really all that convinced about the "trending colder" for CADs any more.  I take a lot of it with a grain of salt - in the early 2000s it was almost always fun to track CADs and post temps/dewpoints and watch as a lot of the people on the boards as it happened.  It just doesn't seem to do this now and we can never get the trend to shave off the final few degrees we need. 

(this post is referring generally to ne ga and the upstate, not the higher parts of NC)

20 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

He said that to me. That pompous azz lol.  My brother still laughs at me about it.

That was an all time classic. And yes there was an inch in quite a few place in ne ga and the upstate. One of the biggest ice storms I have been in. it was December 05 I think. 
 

ps is there a way to edit/copy or merge posts? 

1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them. 

Lol ditto. I should have kept reading before posting a reply to Burrell lol. Looks like clayton is in a good spot for this. Habersham usually does pretty well in cad events but doesn’t look like it as much this time 

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Nam is warming Athens, Georgia  from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch 

Ne ga appears to be on the edge (as usual lol) and another close call. If the trends continue hopefully there will be more frozen precip in ne ga. A lot of the storms this year didn’t trend enough at the end. However the snow a couple of Saturdays ago worked out for a change. With so much volatility and as close as some areas are I just hope things clarify a bit over night. Otherwise another now cast for some of us as a degree or two could make a pretty big difference. I was surprised to see parts of the upstate and Rabun cty with a wsw this afternoon

I don't usually post in the whining thread but COME ON lol.  biggest arctic outbreak in ages that was SUPPOSED to be here this week is hitting almost everyone but the south east.  its a slap in the face for sure...while I am very happy for those winter weather lovers who rarely see snow/ice getting hit it is really hard to hear "how bad it is" while imby it is 40 and raining.  that is warm, most of the weekend it was 36 or 37 and wet.  this is frustrating to say the least.  I am done with the 7-10 models at this point - they are completely useless (at least in the se). 

back to watching just a few days out again (which, ironically, is how the snow on feb 6 was).  although I guess I shouldnt complain as much as others on here as I did see a decent snow this winter.  but nothing compared to "what could have been" with the arctic blast sigh

7 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

No, you are not. This comes up periodically during ice storms being modeled. While I realize a lot of people do not like them I do. I like all wild weather frozen to summer storms etc.  granted no power sucks. It a real ice storm is a wonder to see. I have been in several large ice storms and while nerve wracking at times with the popping of trees, watching it unfold I find very interesting. I would rather have ice than rain and 33 any day 

Jeesh the latest maps show that the title of the thread might need to be changed to add the upstate and ne ga lol. This is the first time I have seen that far south - probably a glitch but will be interesting to see if it continues the trend. I do have a hard time believing we could get the snow on the Saturday then ice the next fri/sat and then whatever ends up next week. 3 in 10 days is impressive for n ga. Side note it’s 65 today lol. 

Looks like the steady snow is about over here.  Total is 4.5”

Still pouring here. 2” and counting lol

The heavier echos in ne ga is falling as heavy snow Imby. About and inch and a half on the deck

2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

My man! Awesomeness brother..im hoping for a changeover soon. Mixing 15 miles north of me

Started sticking to the deck and trees.  The ground is getting white