buckeyefan1

Nam is a bit further south too

Glad I'm not alone in thinking that. Thanks for the confirmation

That's a nice little band there. I know it's not been mentioned, but I would think there is a possibility of some thunder snow somewhere?

fwiw the hrrr has increased totals for ms/al the past couple of runs. More consolidated and a touch sw with the low.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the frozen fun while it lasts! I'll be here posting maps and watching with envy as the first taste of winter arrives on your doorstep

Yes, I'm posting this here too. There has not been a flake of snow being shown for mby, but I'm excited for those that do get to see the flakes fly. Whether it's mood flakes for the day, a dusting, 2" and the possibility of making a few snowballs and a mini snowman or a foot thump that sticks around in an artic environment for weeks. Stop crapping on other peoples excitement because you aren't getting what you think you deserve/endrant.

While all you snow snobs are complaining because the ground temps are too warm for it to stay around after it stops, or it's too far north, there are plenty of us who would love to watch a few hours of mood flakes collect in a sloppy mess on the lawn

The flizzard alert has entered 48 hrs until ground truth begins

I needed that laugh Thank you Maggie Ace and I appreciate that more than you know

18z gfs

I really appreciate your awesomeness over the years. You always know how to make me smile and thank you from my heart, for the kind words. You rock

I really appreciate your friendship over the years. The se crew really is the best that amwx has to offer. Thank you

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.... CORRECTED FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO LINE TYPE ...SUMMARY... Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the Western Appalachians on New Year's Day. All severe-weather hazards are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough will be centered near the Great Basin to start the period. This trough will maintain its positive tilt as it shifts eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest by 12Z Sunday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly from the southern High Plains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Saturday to the Northeast by Sunday morning. A surface reflection of this mid-level shortwave trough is expected to travel along the front from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians... There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the destabilization and severe-weather threat based on the position of the position of the surface front and the strength of the surface low. The NAM is stronger with the surface low with a much farther north warm front bringing low 60s dewpoints north of the Ohio River into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Southwest Ohio. However, the operational GFS is much weaker and southeast with the surface low and only brings low 60s dewpoints into south-central Kentucky. The ECMWF solution is between these two locations with the frontal position, which also closely resembles the GEFS mean. Therefore, the northern extent of the marginal and slight risk threat areas match the ECMWF and GEFS mean. A line of storms is expected to move through this region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Forecast soundings show more than 50 knots of flow only a few hundred meters above the surface. Therefore, mixing this strong flow to the surface should not be that difficult, even in a weak buoyancy environment. Low 60s dewpoints should yield MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg across southern Kentucky, which increases the confidence for severe winds as the squall line moves through. In addition, a QLCS tornado threat will exist given the strong low-level speed shear present ahead of this line of storms. However, the limited instability and veered surface flow will be limiting factors to a greater tornado threat along this portion of the line. ...Portions of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley... A large area of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, is expected to be ongoing from western Kentucky to northern Texas Saturday morning. As the surface low moves from the Plains into the Ozarks Saturday morning, this convection is expected to become better organized, likely into a squall line, and start to advance eastward. Dewpoints are forecast in the mid to upper 60s ahead of these storms, which should yield MLCAPE around 500 to 1500 J/kg from north to south. This should be more than sufficient to maintain a strong squall line through the afternoon and into the overnight hours across eastern Arkansas, most of Tennessee, and northern Mississippi and Alabama. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will result in strong low-level speed shear across the entire warm sector. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional flow in the lowest 1 km due to the veered surface flow across most of the warm sector as a result of the elongated nature of the surface pressure pattern. This should temper the tornado threat somewhat, but with the strong speed shear and the expectation of a well balanced squall line, the environment will still be supportive for QLCS tornadoes. Most guidance hints at the potential for some warm sector supercell development across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee Saturday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF has been especially bullish with pre-frontal convection for the last several days, which continues through the latest 00Z run. Any strong supercells which can develop in the open warm sector will likely have the greatest threat for significant to potentially intense tornadoes. The most likely region for pre-frontal supercell development will be from eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and possibly southern Tennessee where greater instability is forecast. Veered low-level flow will keep low-level directional shear limited during the first half of the day. However, at least slightly greater low-level turning is shown by forecast soundings during the late afternoon into the evening hours as surface flow remains south-southwest, while the low-level jet starts to veer more westerly as the main wave shifts east. This may result in a slightly higher tornado threat into the overnight hours from far eastern Mississippi into northern/central Alabama and northwest Georgia. ..Bentley.. 12/31/2021

As we close out the dumpster fire that is 2021 and welcome the magickal energy that is 2022, I just would like to say thank you to the se crew for all the amazing memories over the past two decades, and all the future memories that haven't happened yet Whether you know it or not, you all have helped me through some pretty rough times and laughed with me (and sometimes at me ) through the great times. I wouldn't trade this group of awesome people for anything and my wish for each of you in 2022 is winter madness with feet of frozen gold, a spring filled with blooming flowers and rain to keep the pollen away, a summer that brings perfect beach weather without the need of a hatchet to slice through the humidity along with good old fashion thunder boomers that end with hours of anvil crawlers to watch as you sit on the deck, and a fall that brings endless color and crisp air as football season begins HAPPY NEW YEAR SE CREW!!

Mid month fantasy land

Flizzard alert

Why did you have to go off saying asking questions will get you banned? Common sense would say that if it was bad enough to get a warning, and it was removed from viewing, that it wouldn't get posted again. I can't believe I have to break this down and repeat myself over and over and over again......but here we are

He's requesting information that he already knows and was warned for and was removed from viewing because it was transphobic But please....continue with your hyperbole