HoarfrostHubb

Poring rain and 40F here. Just a dandy of a day This flu thing sucks as well.

Just awful. Forecast called for chances of Tor. Did they get the area correct?

Yup. A few huge sailboats went up. My son texted me about it. His campus is all hazy from the smoke and it reeks

Test came back negative. But I feel like I was hit by a truck.

1.5” here I’m staying home feeling like crap Getting tested later today ugh

Maybe 3/4”. Zzzzz

Light snow started here around 4:25. Was nice walking the dog with a headlamp and having the light speed effect

I have not seen a flake today.

Such a jack. Huge

We should be in storm mode

Just being a realist. After tomorrow’s inch we have a good week plus of meh. It will come. But just taking its time

Hopefully. Some signs the second part of the month could be wintry

The December to not Remember rolls on

Lunenburg will report 12”

Saw it briefly this summer. Freaked out 20 y o son out. He thought it was a mussel attack or something.

“Do you have the Euro seasonal image saved prior to this update? I recall the last one showed much drier than normal didn’t it?”

Happy news Jerry. I’d blame bad seafood.

From BOX AFD Wednesday... It appears increasingly likely that at least part of southern New England could see its first widespread accumulating snow of the season. The dynamics are impressive. The 00z GFS shows a decent storm intensifying close to the 70W/40N benchmark with deformation band forming across the CWA. Omega within the favorable Dendritic Growth Zone of -12 to -18C looks to be in the 15-20 unit range, along with negative 700-500mb equivalent potential vorticity and good 700mb frontogenesis should help set up a decent mesoscale band sometime Wednesday afternoon into evening. The question will be whether it is cold enough for 1 inch per hour snowfall rate to materialize and how much snow can accumulate before potential mixing or changeover to rain especially along the Boston- Providence corridor. Ensemble model guidance (GFS, EC and GEM) have continued to advertize decent probability of 24 hour 3-plus inches snowfall, with consensus of at least 40-50 percent for Wednesday into Wednesday night across interior MA and CT, using uniform 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. Dependent on how impressive the cold air injection is, this ratio could potentially be a little higher. In fact, the GFS shows SLR of around 14 to 16:1. While it is still too premature to go into possible snowfall accumulation, would like to see greater signal for formation of deformation band across the CWA especially when the Convection- Allowing Models come into range by Sunday night/Monday morning. Given it is a fast-moving system, snowfall rates will likely have to approach or exceed an inch per hour for Warning criteria snowfall (6 inches averaged over a forecast zone in a 12 hour period). There is above average uncertainty with the Boston-Providence corridor because either it could be a mostly rain event or it could be the sweet spot for significant snowfall accumulation if the colder air holds its ground and the deformation band sets up in the vicinity. So plenty for snow lovers to ponder over and continually monitoring over the next couple of days. For now, really don`t have the confidence to come up with a snowfall map until the Hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF) comes into range but we have time to fine-tune the specifics.

Get well Jerry.

Yep. Light dusting. Festive as we are wrapping gifts

Light snow here (right now) Wasn’t expecting that.

BOX is a bit more bullish than I would expect this far out" Wednesday... It appears increasingly likely that interior southern New England could see its first widespread accumulating snow of the season. Ensemble model guidance (GFS, EC and GEM) probability of 24 hour 3+ inches of snowfall is now up to at least 40-50% for Wednesday into Wednesday night across interior MA and CT. Given how progressive the system is, initial thinking is 3-6 inches of snow across interior MA and CT, and perhaps an inch or two along the Boston- Providence corridor. Areas along the coast probably see mostly if not all rain. That said, there remains considerable uncertainty on the placement of the rain/snow line and timing of the heaviest precipitation as the deterministic guidance differs amongst each other and with the ensemble guidance. The GFS deterministic run takes the center of low pressure well inside the 70W/40N benchmark while the EC is considerably colder. With 925mb temps starting out at -4 to -6C Wednesday morning, it should be cold enough to start out as all or mostly snow except for the immediate coast Wednesday morning. Then the question becomes whether the cold air has any staying power as the main precipitation shield moves in. The EC and GEM deterministic guidance are colder than the GFS. But again, would put more weight on the ensemble guidance than deterministic guidance. And the former actually shows more consistency as discussed above. Still plenty of time to fine tune the specifics.

On the bright side, we won’t have to fret about a Grinch storm.

Pea sized hail!!

Jesus that came on quick. Got the dog out just in time