Latest BOX AFD about Friday
Friday through Sunday... We look to remain dry through about 00Z Friday, but ensemble and deterministic guidance is gaining clarity in a coastal low-Miller B type system developing off the New Jersey coast late Thursday; moving northward into our area for Friday and the early part of Saturday. There has been a lot of buzz regarding the uncertainty in the forecast for this event, but of the 50 member ECWMF ensemble suite, only ONE member presents a solution with the low tracking across the "blockbuster noreaster" benchmark southeast of Nantucket. There is actually considerable agreement, and run to run consistency, that this low will track near the NJ coast, over Long Island, and up the CT River Valley; indicative of a rain event except across the high terrain of NW MA and western CT. Of course, with this forecast being several days out, shifts are expected in the forecast, but this track is supported by several synoptic conditions including the surface high pressure being located to far north and east, and mid level ridging in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe ahead of the low.
There will be a considerable amount of moisture associated with this system, with over 1" of QPF forecast for the 24 hour period 00Z Fri to 00 Sat. While we expect mostly rain across the coastal plain, localities that are able to tap into enough cold air to see snow may see plowable amounts, with both GEFS and ECWMF ensemble probabilities on the board for 3-6"+ of snow across the Berkshires. At this time, it appears the most considerable snow accumulations will be across northern New England, which is good news for winter sports enthusiasts!
