HoarfrostHubb

BOX has my area at 1000’ asl in northern Worcester county as only getting 1-2”. Elevation is important but further west and north helps as well

Eric Fisher’s on WBZ was similar.

I guess Mass gets weed, NH gets snow

They have time. But not a lot. Maybe they nail it

Yeah. They have not really been moving this along Maybe 4PM?

I used to think they just used a massaged GFS, but I think they have cobbled together their own frankenmodel

BOX pnc and Wunderground app still has my area almost 100% rain. I assume 4PM there will be some changes

Just need it to slide like 4 miles east so Leominster gets in on it. They are in a valley

I still don't trust the NAM. Been burned too many times. Even if I did I would lop at least a third off those maps due to ratios

All snow for you. Pasty

Dynamics look good. I think that is overdone based on other models, but here's hopin'

Would love 22" of powder like I got with that, but that ain't happenin'

Thundersnow over the Cape

I agree with you. BOX on the other hand is still going 0-1” with almost all rain for my point n click

I can work with this... tic tic tic

We're not here to start no troubleWe're just here to do the Messenger Shuffle

Are we ever really in the range of the NAM?

Their company Christmas party is going to be held at Nakatomi Plaza

From BOX wrt this event: Thursday night/Friday/Fri night... Potent upper low over the western Great Lakes ejects short wave energy toward SNE this period. Modest jet dynamics and moisture plume accompany this feature. However, given high latitude block, some duration to the precip, from Thu night into possibly early Sat morning. Ensembles (ECENS & GEFS) both supporting QPF ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches, with low probs of 2+ inches in spots. As for ptype, temp anomalies from the ensembles indicate airmass on the front end is only seasonably cold. Therefore, it will be difficult to maintain cold air, unless low level circulation from secondary frontal wave tracks offshore. There remains a large spread in the guidance regarding the track of this secondary wave, however, more members are farther west, tracking along the coast or across SNE. The GFS and its ensembles are on the east side of the envelope, hence a colder/snowier solution. Given the antecedent airmass is not anomalously cold combined with upper low over the western Great Lakes, the low level circulation likely won`t track offshore, and cold air should erode quickly. The exception will be across the high terrain of western MA, where cold air will linger longer, supporting the risk for several inches of snow. The ECENS has high probs for 3+ of snow here, GEFS is lower. Accumulating snow also possible for northern Worcester county, albeit lower probs than the Berkshires. Elsewhere, odds favor a chilly, windswept rain, especially for coastal plain, where a low level easterly jet of 40-50 kt quickly erodes the cold air. This strong low level jet may also translate to wind gusts up to 35-45 mph, so wind advisories may be need for the coastline.

Yeah. I could definitely see it being at either end...

What do you think for out this way? My early call is 3-5" with a change to rain for most of the event

Was hoping for a snow day for the 3 districts in my household. Mine is definitely off the table. The other 2 are maybe in play.

Make sure you find a supervisor to complain to

Windshield wipers in effect for now. Hopefully it can end on a swish to the east

Whoops