A few days ago I didn't expect it to be a cat 4/5... I expected very high storm surge and freshwater flooding by copious rain. The winds will add loads to the misery
I think 25-50 is the next shading on NWS maps?
Pivotal total Euro qpf has some 25-28" amounts near Tampa
Harvey had some 60" amounts (not that I would expect anything like that)
I'm definately curious about how Tampa Bay would handle a surge of a storm hitting at an angle like that. I assume that has been modelled pretty often (slosh model?)