ron1660

Kong is King.

Comparing the 850 mb temperatures for Philly, NW Burlington County NJ, NW Camden County between 18z GFS and 18Z Euro, the GFS NEVER gets the temperature above zero degrees C, and even then, it only holds it there for 3 hours maximum (probably shorter). This doesn't occur until 03z Monday. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the 850 mb temperature around 3 degrees C at 0z Monday, and then only reduces it to zero and below 10 hours later. Yet the snow fall estimates are not too different from each other, implying that most of the heavy precipitation ended before the changeover. One more thing... the nasty run of the latest NAM model shows the 850 mb temperature on the NJ coast at 10 degrees C (50 degrees F!). How in the world could those temperatures have warmed that much. Make me believe there is a problem with the run.

I do not write much, but the Euro AIFS model forms the transferred low visibly east of the Euro operational model, and as a result, proposes a slightly, but critical colder solution. 850 mb temperatures are 1 degree C colder, and, though it matters less, surface temperatures right around the Philly area are a full 3-4 degrees F colder. The snow difference is significant. The 10:1 ratio snow difference is 4 inches. Though Weatherbell does not show Kuchera accumulations for the AIFS model, one would have to assume that the difference would be 6" of snow.

Terrific video by Bernie Rayno clearly explaining the driving issues for this potential storm.

The key per Bernie Rayno's latest video is getting that northern piece of energy to dive down into the ejected energy from the Southwest. The ICON is certainly showing that now as is the first 93 hours of the UKMET currently being run. Still not there yet on the UKMET.

Trough orientation. Negatively tilted= capture.