mayjawintastawm
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Everything posted by mayjawintastawm
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Here we go, severe season started with a bang last night north of Denver and the current main event might be today. Enhanced risk for severe for the immediate Denver metro and northeast. Keep those cars inside, sports fans.
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I'm going to start a spring-summer thread with today's interesting scenario as the first post. 8 pages + 1 post for all of fall and winter... we could use some more traffic! 48.8" snowfall for the 22-23 season at my house, barring anything the rest of May.
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There was a narrow N-S band of 1.4-1.8 inches just north and south of DIA from Weld County south to SE Aurora, according to COCORAHS.
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Two things really surprised me about that storm: 1) the snow level for real accumulation was much higher than forecast- looks like about 7500 feet; and 2) the total precip was much, much less than forecast south and east of the Metro area. Heavy precip over 2 inches was confined to the Pueblo area. Even SE Colorado got shafted. If it hadn't been for the convection earlier in the day, it would have been bust-o-rama for everyone.
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Around an inch of rain here from everyone else's home weather stations, the most in just about 8 months. Temp 39 and it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a single flake. Looks from radar that the snow level is right around 6200 ft.
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Some really nice rain for about the last 4 hours, even before the "main event" (or non-event for us). Of course my rain gauge decided to jam right after it started. Have to go up on the roof tomorrow.
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Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-23
mayjawintastawm replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
The Keenesburg tornado was a landspout. There was some video someone took from a car, looks like they were on I-76. Little bitty thing. We had some nice sunshine today that yielded just enough instability to create some thunderstorms. -
Models coming in more south again, with less QPF locally and some with a precip hole over the Denver metro. Why am I not surprised. Good for SE CO though.
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OK now GFS says 4" of snow and only 0.88" QPF for my house (like half of the 18z run) while NAM says 14" of snow and 2.5" QPF on the 00z runs. GFS ensemble is 1.4" QPF but only 3 inches of snow (that actually sounds pretty realistic). SREF mean is close to the GEFS. NAM is nuts. Bedtime.
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something looks weird to me though with that- I can only see Euro ensemble with free pivotalweather, but the maximum QPF (like Pueblo/Walsenburg) looks to be too close to where the 500 mb low tracks, which is not too far from where it tracked last run, though it is faster this time. But I certainly do not speak fluent modelese.
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Smokeybandit, I think this one's for you... I'll be right on the hairy edge at 5650'. Honestly big snow this time of year doesn't excite me quite as much as it would in March, but I'll take it.
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3.2" for the final today as we were under that very last band of snow that only quit around 1 PM. The next week system looks really interesting- sometimes (May 21 last year anyone?) they wind up colder than billed, which could make for a notable Tuesday night/Wednesday. Good thing few trees have leaves yet. After this week we can make a warm season thread, but maybe not yet.
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Nice 2.5" of snow last night, the most moisture at one time in a couple months. Pretty.
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The story of the Spring to date.
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GFS is like a 6 year old kid... entertaining, but enough to give you a headache sometimes.
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Precip totals around the Metro area were also lower than predicted, 0.1" to 0.3" generally (we had 0.13" and the point forecast was 0.51" yesterday morning). You were probably under a couple of micro-bands that did the job. Driving around yesterday evening, the snow intensity was incredibly variable just over a mile or two in Lone Tree-Centennial-Greenwood Village. I wonder what causes those effects- subtle convection?? Lake effect from Cherry Creek Reservoir?
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Smokeybandit, yours was the highest in the Metro area, looking at COCORAHS. Everywhere within the 470 extended beltway was <1" and the only 6" totals outside of the foothills were at the top of the Palmer Divide from Black Forest on west. Congrats!
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Nice. Got half an inch, then dryslotted. More later maybe. Fertilized the dust yesterday.
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Looks like tomorrow might be the first rainy day in >6 months for the Front Range. Bring it on! Now of course that means it will go "poof".
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OK, OK.... you win. but the usual springtime wetness from the south and east has just failed to materialize so far. I guess it all turned into tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley.
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I'd love to get more than 0.1" moisture in any form. Something is persistently keeping this from happening east of the Divide and south of Wyoming for about 500 miles.
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DEN broke the record low for April 5 with 11 F this morning, old record was 12 in 1983. My house also 11.
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About 0.5" here. EDIT: final was 1.5" for the calendar day.
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So freaking dry. March with 0.24" water and 3.2" snow at my house, well under an inch of water for Q1 2023. Nearest NWS climate station at Centennial Airport has 0.70" YTD. No ignition sources, please.
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Great. We got graupel for 2 minutes that added up to a trace. March precip to date 0.18" and 1.6" snow.
