mayjawintastawm

Centennial Airport (KAPA) got almost 3" of water from the last storm, getting into the early thunderstorm with hail as we did. I'm realizing that my rain gauge is absolutely horrible at measuring snow as it melts- the rain amount was spot on, but 16" of snow after that yielded only 0.13" of water. Umm... no. And it wasn't even very windy.

Well, on the ground: 0.45" of rain prior to a changeover at 8:25 PM (right on schedule for 5650'), with a heavy thunderstorm with hail added in around 7. The hail and flooding was enough to close NB I-225 just SW of Parker Rd because of accidents for a bit. Hail was only pea-size, but enough to pile up and make the road slippery for a bit till it melted. Not sticking to anything other than grassy/elevated surfaces yet, and 33 F. I'm rooting for it to stay that way till I have to leave the house at 5 AM.

The temp profiles will make this really interesting- 3 feet of concrete in the foothills??

great point- Berthoud Pass was closed with actual avalanches affecting actual cars (rare!) last storm cycle, so I'd imagine CDOT will be very careful this cycle. If Berthoud's closed, only way to get to WP is I-70 through the tunnel then CO 9 up and around to US 40 East, quite a slog.

From NWS BOU: Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater (and) Visibilities frequently less than 1/4 mile (and) Considerable snow and/or blowing snow Unlikely we'll meet them here in the Metro area, but if you drove down I-25 past Castle Rock (not advised! :)) you might find some at the height of the storm. This storm is unusual in a few ways, including that it will most likely be less severe over the Plains. Every weather enthusiast should experience a Plains blizzard...once! And welcome, and enjoy! Do keep in mind that plowing/treating roads here is better than in NC, but not as good as in the Northeast. Getting stuck happens now and then. Bring a shovel and good boots.

wow. Point forecasts from most recent models for my place are tightly clustered from 21 to 24 inches. And I have to fly out Thursday AM- wish me luck.... no seats available tomorrow.

And as if on cue, snow amounts in the point forecasts are starting to drop quickly for areas outside the mountains. DEN went from over a foot last night to maybe 4-5 inches for the whole event this morning, and my house went from 16 to 10 inches. So, who knows.

Really nicely written AFD once again by the folks at NWS BOU about the upcoming possible storm. Are they teaching their forecasters to write or something?

that's great, I was further south (I-70 corridorish) and there is not quite as much there.

Guessing a couple of feet. Was up around 9-10,000' yesterday and there is a decent snowpack, not great but not terrible.

As am I. A family funeral on the East Coast. I'm hoping the timing of the storm shifts a bit.

Yawn. (except for the far northeast plains) Even the mountains only get an advisory for this one. Wake me when severe season starts.

Point and click forecast for the middle of Lake Tahoe this afternoon was somewhere between 50 and 90 inches for the entire storm, including 3-4 feet tonight. Wow. That's like 3-4 inches an hour for 12 straight hours.

Pics or it didn't happen. But stay safe!!

Cherry Creek Lake is now ice-free (after a low of 11 F this AM), pointing out just how little cold we had in February. Not a top 20 warmest for Denver so far (we could just squeak in depending on temps today and tomorrow), but no sustained cold to keep the ice around. A pair of bald eagles was fishing this afternoon.

And this AM it was 44 at 7:30, 31 at 7:40, and 23 by 8:30. We got a neat 2 inches of snow in an hour and a half, bringing my monthly total to 14.1" and season to 36.4", just average for this date. Not bad for a weird mostly warm regime.

In Colorado it can sometimes be snowing, windy, and on fire all at the same time. Maybe even all in the same place.

Wow, look at the Mid Atlantic/Northeast and Minnesota. Shows just how warm it's been... wet but not snowy at all.

Was away and nobody at home measured, but averaging the two closest COCORaHS sites we'll call it 4" for a total over the two days. that was a weird "storm".

Nobody's really talking about it, but forecasts have been pretty consistent the last 24 hrs giving much of the Denver metro around 6 inches of snow Friday night through Saturday night. Of course I'll be away at a conference in soggy CA...

And now the Mother of All Dryslots is plaguing most of CO except for a very narrow band along the foothills. It's like the storm is 70% dryslot. So weird. 6 inches on the nose, probably 1" WE when you include the rain.

I don't know. That band that pivoted west and is pummelling the west C-470 corridor now has to come back east at some point as the energy inches south and east later. 3" here as of 11:30, an inch an hour average. I'm guessing we'll wind up with 8-9" when all is done, you may get 10".

Just mixed then flipped from rain to snow here at 5650' as the temp dropped from 35 to 33 in the last half hour. 0.31" rain before the change- more rain than we've seen since October!

OK, looking at pivotalweather before bed, 00Z GFS gives me 14", NAM 11", GEFS 9" and SREF 4". Huge differences within 5 miles or so. This is getting interesting. Light rain here now, 41 F.

Squinting to the point I'm getting a headache trying to resolve the street-by-street gradient on the 12z model output. It looks like both the GFS and NAM give me 4" of snow, with GFS higher in QPF (1"+ compared to 0.8"). At least the QPF is getting more consistent across what models I can see. I don't think we'll get skunked with precip. Vertical motion and upslope will tell. A barrier jet would be nice, though I think the last time we had one of those it was so tight against the foothills that only places within 10 miles of the hills (Littleton, Golden, Boulder) got a lot.