mayjawintastawm

12Z models are still split about this storm, with QPF over an inch from GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles, much less from the NAM and Canadian (0.25-0.4"). NWS point and click for me is 0.56". We shall see.

Precip is way more large-scale than convective, so that's good. Fewer places for this one to escape too- nothing really to suppress it south or lift it north. QPF for me is now 0.65". I like this trend. Still not buying the QPFs over an inch around Denver though.

Would be nice. The atmosphere always seems to find a way to underachieve lately around here though. QPF Tues-Thurs from NWS for my neighborhood has gone from 0.72" to 0.50" the last 12 hours, would not be surprised if it continues to decrease.

Yeah, pretty weird that we have not had a sub-45 F temp at my house. Was walking the dog at 10:30 last night in shorts. Typically our first hard freeze is this week. Also can vouch for Chinook's pictures as representative of the mountains in CO generally- flew from SW to NE yesterday, right over BV, and snow levels were between 12 and 13K feet and nothing deep enough to be consequential. Basically nothing on south facing slopes. A good month behind.

I've been in San Diego the last 4 days where it's been 19 F above normal. Yay. Running in 105 F is not recommended.

It was a superstar compared to the old NGM (No Good Model), which completely dates my weather geekiness. Trying to get graphical model outputs from dialup internet connections in the late 90s was an exercise in extreme patience.

Total rain at my house 1.26" for September. Interesting that Centennial Airport just 3-4 miles south got 3.23". Also DEN was 4th warmest all time for the month. Looks like the transition zone from lighter to heavier rain the last 2 days (using an inch, more or less, as the dividing line) was way down in Pueblo and Huerfano Counties.

Welcome! We lived in the Lehigh Valley about 30 years ago and experienced both the thrill of victory (a couple enormous snowstorms in about 1995) and the agony of defeat (skiing in the pouring rain at Blue Mountain when snow was forecast). I will say that medium and long range forecast accuracy around here is typically awful, not through any fault of anyone except Mother Nature. Storms tend to form right over us - or not - rather than coming from hundreds or thousands of miles away, making it super hard to predict anything specific more than a day or so out. One good thing is that we VERY rarely have snow changing to rain, ever. Much more common the other way around. Ptype is one thing that's pretty accurate, even snow levels within a few hundred feet most of the time. You'll learn the elevation of just about anywhere you go.

Or Westminster has 0.03" and Parker 0.15". Bummer indeed. We'll have to import water from New Mexico at this rate. And in 30 hours from right now, Denver Water is prohibiting all outdoor watering for the foreseeable future, including next Spring till they say so.

And models are caving, as usual, to the drier ones. Nothing except the NAM has more than 1" for the Denver Metro at 12Z.

NWS point and click has 1.62" for me through Thursday early AM, with a bit more after that. I'd take it if it were true.... still pretty amazing to have such differences in models 24-36 hours out.

Wow! We can safely say there will be 0 to 4 inches of rain in the Denver Metro this week. And tonight, there is an excellent chance of darkness.

OK, I'll send it Tuesday. What's the postage like for 2" of rain? Got 0.36" with tonight's surprise storm. I'll take it, though Centennial Airport (measuring station 4 miles south) got 1.01".

We got two rounds of rain: 0.06" and 0.02". No hail. Of course, areas just to the south got wrecked.

The pattern of Lucy pulling the football away continues for most of the Denver Metro, with promising forecasts dwindling and rain always 2-4 days away. DEN has a trace of rain this month so far. My house has 0.11".

Whoops, yeah I was looking at the 6 AM and 7 AM temps, guess it dipped down a bit around 3-4 AM. In any case, if we stay above 63 the next 5 hours it will be a new warmest low.

About the warmest early morning low I can remember at my house, 72 today. DIA had a low of 74. May go lower tonight before midnight, otherwise it'll break the warmest low record for the date by 11 degrees! Would also tie the record for the second lowest all-time minimum.

"Bagging" multiple peaks in a day is a big thing in the Northeast, where I hiked all 67 4000 footers in New England with my Dad before moving to CO in 2010. It's easy to climb 3-4 in a day or half a dozen in a weekend. All are Class 1 or 2 hikes, though there are some class 3 options if you try hard enough on a couple of peaks in NH and Maine. Funny thing is that weather and hiking have historically been two of my main interests, but "peakbagging" much less so since I moved to CO. (on the AT, my trail name was "Weatherman"). I've climbed two fourteeners, but there is so much more great hiking out here that does not involve the highest peaks that they've lost much of their appeal (plus, the competition for parking and real estate during 14er hikes is a big negative). But we digress. Some very thoughtful winter forecasts have emerged in the last week. What do people think? Personally, I'm skeptical that we'll get more than a "normal" amount of snow this year, because persistence always seems to win out. Though I'd gladly take "normal".

I've hiked in that area up to the passes in the area (though I've never done the "official Four Pass Loop") and camped by a couple of lakes. Trails are steep and rocky up to the formerly glaciated headwalls pretty much everywhere in CO, though maybe more in that area because of the rock itself. Poles are a good idea (and will help preserve your knees for future decades!)

I have a friend who's hiked all the 14ers and many more than once, and for him the Bells are some of the most dangerous he calls it "hiking on a giant pile of dinner plates". But not till you get above pass level (12K).

August rain at my house=2.25". Was hoping for a bit more to end the month and it rained the last 4 days in a row but with a whopping total of 0.09". It's pretty uncommon to get monsoon moisture here after Labor Day but we'll see....

They are tornadoes that get reported to NWS by spotters/law enforcement/etc but may not have been confirmed by NWS. Some are duplicates (I think), some turn out to be non-tornadic wind events.

That's pretty typical for the mountains during monsoon season. Some years you can set your watch by them, right after lunch. I've been caught in more than one on my bike, grateful for the helmet. One good thing is that the mountains very rarely have severe-size (1") hail.

Just got 0.42" rain in 16 minutes with rates peaking at 2.5"/hr. All done though. Parts of Parker got hammered. Saw some broad rotation in the cloud base on my way home from work in Aurora. EDIT: round 2 developing from outflow. Quite an interesting afternoon, all of a sudden!

Grand total of 0.03" rain in the last week. Grrr. Plenty of wind though. Also, August has a very good shot of being in the top 3 warmest at DEN, after 2nd warmest July ever. Current average is 76.8, tied for #3 all time (77.0 is #`1) and the forecast for the next week doesn't go below that.