Thundersnow12

Had 1.0" here from today. 26.4" on the season.

All snow here for the last 20 mins or so since these heavier returns moved overhead. These look to train too so could be a quick inch or two from VYS-ARR-DPA and eventually to near ORD

Upper level low is slower taking on a neutral tilt which allows the surface low to gain some eastward movement before turning more to the north.

5.2” here Will probably be the total unless LES gets this far west which I doubt

Had 1.0" at 10pm, will measure again shortly.

Snow been flying here for about 20 some mins now with already a good dusting

I've had several moments of GHD II flashbacks with this one and the GEFS continues to come in better than the op, which is exactly how it went with that storm for several days. The GEFS led the way.

Clear as day trend on the GFS along the East Coast where the Thu/Fri system is now exiting (trending north) which allows for higher heights behind it across the Midwest/OV, which in turn allows for our system to then cut a little more each of the last several GFS runs. Making all the difference with how far north that lead system exits.

This is more due to the wave crossing the Rockies/lee side cyclogenesis further south and remaining positively tilted, rather than swinging out to neutral/negative and allowing the low to cut.

Had 3.3” at 6pm. Will measure when I’m back home but can’t imagine much more.

Had 1.0” here at 11am. Will measure again at 1pm.

Euro is mega hot/north. 4-6” entire Chicago metro. 7-9” south of I-88

NAM is lol worthy across north central and northeast IL. Really hitting the dry air problems really hard.

Euro even more impressive than 0z run. Get's 4-6" amounts into entire LOT CWA to the WI border.

NAM doubled down....is very hot/amped. Slow moving, strengthening upper low leads to a hell of an event this run over a large area too. Very impressive run to say the least. Ratios should be fairly decent as well.

18z NAM came in way hot/amplified with the southern plains wave compared to other guidance valid at 6z Saturday. 850mb low stronger/further north as well and a stronger LLJ is able to throw that moisture/precip much further north. Probably a mirage.

Funny thing, Mike Caplan and myself switch off setting the over/under at ORD with snow events. It was my turn with this one and I set the line at 8.4" lol

Ended with a storm total of 7.8" November (winter so far) total up to 13.6"

Legit said the same thing when I talked to Gino calling in my report....can't remember seeing trees weighed down so much like they are

4.7" total so far

1.8" in the last hour to start this thing off.

Snow already sticking here

Really starting to get some GHD I vibes with how tomorrow evening is starting to look, more so on the CAM's.. Getting nice signal now for convection to develop across central Illinois in the mid-level dry slot in conjuction with daytime heating and some SBCAPE down there as the mid-level height falls spread over that region, steepening the mid-level lapse rates with the colder temperatures under the H5 cold pocket. That convection then flies north on the wings of the 50-60kt flow off the deck in the warm conveyor belt and turn NW and curls into the CCB. Timing may be a bit earlier but location is fairly reminiscent of GHD I and this sort of scenario led to lots of TSSN that evening across north central and northeast Illinois. Will be interesting to see more HRRR runs overnight and tomorrow and how they handle this. I think the chances at TSSN are quite good tomorrow evening.

If anything it initialized a tad too strong...992mb vs 994mb but placement isn't off by much. Noise.

It's not. It's the 3km NAM (Nest)