Inverted_Trough

It's a classic case where one's "liberty" impinges upon another's health and security. I think anyone that is whining about not being able to get a haircut, or sit down at Applebees, or go to a movie theater -- should actually be allowed to do so. But they should also sign a waiver where they agree that, if they get COVID, they (and their health care provider) are ineligible for any federal subsidies for their treatment. They're also ineligible for any of the federal stimulus programs relating to the pandemic. All of them. Personal freedom mean personal responsbility.

They finished all the episodes of Tiger King and they're bored.

I'd let them protest, but fine them for violating social distancing protocol. The states need the revenue from the sudden loss of parking tickets and sales tax receipts!

South Korea is donating 750000 tests. Sounds like this is separate from Maryland's request though. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/south-korea-coronavirus-tests/index.html

You're entitled to your beliefs. There's plenty of ancillary evidence that shows it's contained there. They also had a two month head-start: While we were busy chasing snowstorms that never materialized, they were basically in the midst of dealing with this - like we are now. So it makes sense their counts are much lower than ours currently.

It's certainly possible (or likely) that they under-reported at the very beginning. But it appears they have it under control now. Starbucks has re-opened 95% of the stores that they shuttered in January. There was an article recently that described their process for re-opening. It was quite methodical and they used the data from the local public health authorities there. Our numbers will never get as low as theirs has (or allegedly has). We can't do what China did. It looks like our new strategy will be to get the numbers down to a more manageable level, and play whack-a-mole with new clusters as they arise. It'll be a smouldering fire but hopefully no second inferno. It's pretty apparent that's what our strategy has evolved into

I was being somewhat facetious. I'd say we should look at the data both ways. But per capita tends to be used more in the social sciences, such as economics or politics. Whether your country is 330 million people (like us) or 60 million people (like Italy), a virus has plenty of places to go. So looking at it per capita gives you a distorted picture if you're trying to evaluate the growth rate.

True, but per capita makes it appear that we're not doing as terribly as we really are in regards to dealing with this virus; ergo, let's use per capita.

I'm not in the business of making "hot takes". That's what millenials on social media do.

Sounds like you're already pivoting

I'd be shocked if any of the major professional sports come back by May 15th. I look forward to you pivoting on this.

By wide open, I assume you mean conferences, concerts and sporting events will resume. And restaurants will be at full capacity. And all tourist sites will be completely open. I’ll take you on that bet.

I based the 3% on the various small studies I've seen thus far (including the Santa Clara one from yesterday) I base the 15% on some crude mathematics: There are 135,000 confirmed cases in NYC. The general rule of thumb in epidemiology is to assume that there are 5 to 10 times as many people in the population that have been infected but are unconfirmed. So if we assume a worst case of 10x, we would have 1.3 million New Yorkers that have/are infected. 1.3 million / 8.6 million (total population) = 15%

It's not clear what your point is. The annualized death count will be much higher than the flu because the entire population is vulnerable. It doesn't matter if you smooth it over a year. There's a flu vaccine, and we also have some partial immunity to the flu, so the vulnerable population is much smaller.

It's probably about 3% of the population. Could be up to 15% in certain places like NYC. Some people on this forum actually thought 30% of the population is already infected, which it complete bunk.

Not at all. That's what a novel virus does. Except that the death counts will be also much higher because nobody has immunity.

It's a political calculation too. An overwhelming majority of people supported restricting the economy to save lives (even if those lives are largely very old people). Having a virus wipe out 30% of your elderly population isn't a good look for politicians.

Roughly 600 people per day on average have died in NYC from March 11th through today. That's about a 400% increase from the typical ~150 daily average. Apparenty now we are being told that the "fear of COVID" is causing more deaths than COVID itself. This conversation has really jumped the shark.

Some serious doom porn fans in the weather community.

I’m actually enjoying the cheap gas prices from the lockdown too.

Well, some millennials may also be able to finally afford a house, because of the negligible interest rates and the housing market crash. It’s not all doom and gloom porn.

But the stock market has been up 25% since the lockdown. #401k

We've got to hurry up and get this herd immunity thing over with, so I can get my haircut.

Sounds like he's very qualified to run for President

LOL He has a human skull as his icon, so definitely seems ironic