Calderon

Just now, MUWX said:

Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3?

I would almost say 100% guarantee because having a PDS watch straddling into a general t'storm area would be a first, but possibly some kind of breaking of forecasting guidelines because that literally makes no sense.

Well, I'll say I didn't exactly expect it to be a PDS watch, so that's a little surprising. 

That CU field is so agitated now south of 40. Couple more light showers shown up to near Sulphur and Wynnewood now.

If something happens in central OK, it'll find some way to just hit Moore. It's one of the safer bets you can make. 

12 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

And I don’t disagree with you. I just happen to think it gets blown way out of proportion. When the rubber meets the road and the sirens Blair, most everyone I know gets to shelter.

It’s the crazy ones like me that hop in the truck and try to chase it down. 

 

Then you have cases like Joplin, where too many false alarms and eventual apathy lead to...we all know.

No reports of significant structural damage from the earlier surprise violent tornado signature in far southwest metro St. Louis. It’s a predominantly rural area where the terrain goes from highly rolling, down a steep incline, and then onto the Missouri River floodplain, and then back up the other side.

If this was displaced just about 11 miles farther east, we’d likely have seen a much different scenario going through much more populated suburban cities, such as Wildwood & Chesterfield.

.

Had winds up to 65mph at my location as a funnel cloud passed directly overhead at Forest Park in St. Louis. 

A couple areas of broad rotation approaching the city from the southwest.




.

Someone goofed and triggered the sirens here in the City of St. Louis earlier.


.

The circulation looks to have completely fallen apart very rapidly as it is moving into Weldon Spring right now. 

This tornado absolutely bombed out so fast and may a very hard hook to the north, now fully within St. Charles County. 

NWS St. Louis is currently handing over to Kansas City to take cover.

Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. 

Confirmed tornadoes so far near Edgar Spring, MO and just recently Rhineland, MO. 

New broad circulation near Sullivan, MO headed right up I-44 towards St. Louis Metro.

Mangum tornado is roping out.

2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish".

Probs are actually the same as the infamous watch from 2011.

Storm still has two separate tornadoes on the ground simultaneously. 

Just now, cheese007 said:

Is that two tornadoes or just a stupid large multi-vortex?

Two separate because they're spaced out very well.

Two tornadoes in progress near Crescent.

This storm approaching Crescent is spinning faster and faster. The next tornado is likely to be quite large. 

Tornado is dropping right now near Okarche, moving towards Cashion.

Just now, lokee said:

Oklahoma Mesonet looks to have crashed

Likely server overload failure.

El Reno cell has a lowering that produced a brief funnel. 

KFOR has good coverage right now.

Cell is SVR warned just southwest of OKC, moving nearly due north towards El Reno.

Already several afternoon/evening flights in/out of OKC are cancelled, and expect many more to go.

1 minute ago, Natester said:

Cells along and south of the warm front in Oklahoma still having trouble going off.  Bad sign?  Different story in the Texas panhandle with several discrete supercells.

I'm not worried because it's not even 1400 CDT, so it's still very early. 

Texas has the extra lift from the dry line, hence healthier and deeper convection, for the moment.

Watching the cells west and northwest of Watonga, OK.