Calderon

Any ground truth tornado reports from Jefferson City proper?  SRV out of KLSX really ticked up as it passed 

Yes, spotters continued to see it and it just got the airport.


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This tornado likely traveled right up US 54 into the city.


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Lots of neighborhoods in that area.  Interesting this is the first update that included Jefferson City in the warning.  Not sure why that was the case.

Yep, most development follows US 54 south of town.

My guess is because it is literally the absolute northern corner of the polygon, and nearly the entire western 1/2 of the city limits technically aren’t in it.


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Tornado still confirmed in Hickory Hill, moving NE.


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I don't think we have peaked from SW MO to SE OK at all, parameters support Supercells producing tornadoes instead.

Yes, parameters and all are still there, but the peak has passed because nearly every single storm has shown more broad rotations and many with RFD surges undercutting the rotation centers, some by a good margin.


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Starting to notice a majority of the storms, IL all the way to OK of gusting out becoming the dominant appearance, the lone exception in SW MO. I'm not dismissing the threats, but it seems like we've peaked and on the downtrend overall. 

Just now, RandomBlue said:

So.. has that wedge tornado from Joplin been on the ground for 2 hours now?

No. It lifted and that circulation occluded at least once or twice since.

Bolivar, MO is a VERY bad position with the lead cell heading right at them. Population just over 10,000.

The supercell that has produced the Jay, OK tornado is cycling and likely to be overtaken by the cell right on its tail, and it's already rotating also.

Probable tornado north of Golden City, MO. This is with the trailing storm behind the prolific producer of the evening.

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Debris ball on the Jay storm? Hard to tell On CC

Yes, large debris signature.

Large tornado continues down south just NE of Jay, OK. 

New cells, two in particular, are getting going northeast of Coffeyville, KS. No warnings at all at the time but something to watch.

The supercell literally on the heels of the current producer is starting to crank up. Its rear flank is surging forward and broad rotation starting to take hold. This cell could potentially overtake and become the dominant. We've seen it before, notably the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham overtaken and then it went on to produce the long-track Ohatchee, AL EF4.

4 minutes ago, lokee said:

Do not know if this is the right place but two barges broke loose in Muskogee and going down the Arkansas and can not be gotten. Heading to Webbers Falls and the town is already under a mandatory evac do to flooding. Emergency management said if barges hit the dam then Webbers Falls could be lost. 

And the I-40 bridge there had a partial collapse from a barge hit over a decade ago. 

Possible tornado heading towards Nevada, MO.

Also, another potential tornado near Marshall, MO. This cluster of supercells is unfortunately in a terrible radar hole between KC and STL radars

Tulsa radar may've taken a direct hit.

Tornado passed less than 2 miles from the Tulsa radar site, so we may lose it from either a direct hit or comms loss from downed lines.

14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The cap won't do much, once these storms break through.  The NE OK storms have done so, and they are nearly reaching -70C temps, which means they are high tops.  Joplin, MO is going to be under the crosshairs in the next 4 hours, a long, tracking, violent tornado is possible for the area.

they're still struggling to fight it and bust through, and unless things change soon, they won't.

New storms rapidly developing again in southern OK, notably NE of Duncan and S of Lawton. We'll see if they'll maintain or if the cap with punch them down again.

Just now, jojo762 said:

Evolution of the Okmulgee supercell on reflectivity and velocity is beautiful. Classic cyclic tornadic supercell.

Definitely. It's the near perfect definition of a handoff.

Okmulgee tornado is occluding, new hook going to pass right over the city.

 

Also, new storm, now warned, fired north of Pauls Valley and moving into McClain County.

Okmulgee, OK is in extreme danger with a sizable, multi-vortex tornado approaching the SW side of the city.

Just now, Southern stream said:

Showers S of OKC. appear to be persisting and slightly growing. Cant believe we are seeing initiation happening so far south.

Hell the one in southwestern Pottawatomie County is rotating and has the kidney bean shape already.

2 minutes ago, Natester said:

I should note that there is subsidence in SW Missouri (which is in the moderate risk area) based on satellite trends.  No cumulus there at all.

It's transient and moving ENE with the CU field filling right back in from the SW.