Stash

That is usually overdone on the models for there. It takes a rather strong easterly fetch to downslope them severely (Dec 92 is the only somewhat recent example of severe downsloping in the city). In terms of climo, the typical areas of shadowing in ENY during nor-easters are in southern Washington County and Northern Rensselaer County. The City of Albany itself, shadows more on a SW wind flow, which is unusual in nor'easters. If this thing does cut west, depending on its orientation, I suppose it could happen. That said, I do buy the lower totals. I don't usually trust big amounts with the SLP tracking to our west. Its usually an initial strong thump, then rather quick dryslotting/sleet/drizzle.

You do see it from time to time Upstate, but usually in Eastern areas out my way, and usually (as you said) only in very strong nor'easters. Outside of Upstate, do you ever see them modeled in narrow lake effect bands in CNY or WNY? Being far enough east from the lakes to only get light amounts of lake effect, that's an area I've admittedly paid less attention to.

It can happen wherever the deformation sets up, but this is a relatively quick mover. Been in ENY more than 20 years now, and have seen at least 6 or 7 storms of over 20", in between all the whiffs, usually to the south and east. That number includes the back to back storms in 02/03, and two more the past two Decembers. I'm glad to see WNY getting in on the fun this time.

Barring future corrections, I doubt I see 6" this far east, but anything over 2" will be my heaviest "storm" this season. So this should be a net gain, even here. I do agree with your max area though, especially towards SYR.

It's very tough to get a forum wide storm, as our forum runs from Buffalo east to the New England border, and up to Quebec. But even here in ENY, that would be a decent front end amount followed by dryslot/changeover depending on the ultimate track.

Same here. It would be nice to get that track over SE Mass to verify instead of well inland over our heads in Eastern NY. It's been a tough start for Upstate (east of Utica). The freezing rain from the other day did turn our 1" pack into a glacier however, so that's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Nice paper, did you write this? MHC was still poorly understood (relatively speaking) when I was in the program there in the 90's.

This has more of a snow to sleet, then maybe some freezing drizzle look to me rather than a real ice storm, even with Euro spitting out a half inch of freezing rain at KALB. Maybe for areas further south and east. Either way, its probably (and hopefully) moving way too quickly to be too disruptive. No offense to our fine friends to our west, but if it were more of a pure ice storm, I'd just root for it to go 200 miles to our NW, so we'd flip to rain and dryslot. This should be a great synoptic week for WNY! Hopefully we can get something again before the end of winter. Even with big storms the past couple seasons, we've had plenty of below average winters lately overall.

It is booking, that's for sure. 9" here, maybe a hair over, but I was about 10 miles W of Alb for this one. How did you do out your way?

Euro close to something big for ENY. Maybe even CNY if we can get it to run over the Cape instead of scooting E-NE off Jersey.

S+ under this band, with occasional blowing and drifting. It doesn't look to be slowing down either, so some you guys further to my west should get into it eventually.

Moderate to occasionally heavy snow out here in ENY. Hearing awesome reports out of that band further to my south in the HV. Similar to what I experienced in December.

Some of that could be mixed precip too. Allentown is reporting heavy snow, but other places near Philly are reporting freezing rain and the dreaded "unknown precip". I hope they do well, they're well overdue.

We'll have a pretty tough time beating December out this way, due to that one biggie. Cloudy skies here after morning light snows. I'm doubtful of heavier totals here for this one due to a combination of strong east winds and subsidence with better banding to the south. We'll see if some of those heavier bands downstate hold together or dry up as it gets thrown up this way later this evening. So there's a lot working against us for any decent totals, We'll see what happens later. My old stomping grounds in western CT over towards northern NJ should get slammed however.

Not terribly atypical for that model. It can be good at sniffing out ideas, but it can have some wild swings at this juncture. I'd have to go back and check, but at one point in the mid-December storm it had me go from 30" to 0" or vice-versa in one run. I think it eventually had the better idea closer to start time.