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Everything posted by tamarack
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Re-calculated largest storm - actually 14.92" Median is 13.8". Avg. date of largest is Feb. 10, median 4 days later. Biggest by month NOV: once, in 11-12. DEC: 1.5 (16-17 had 21.0" storms in both D and F.) JAN: 6 FEB: 4.5 MAR: 6 APR: 2 Average peak pack: 30.1", Median 28" Average last day of continuous 1"+: April 6, Median 4/8.
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Latest I've seen decent cover (more than 1") disappear here was 12/17/2000, when 2.8" RA at 40s-50s took out 5" snow. In Gardiner the massive mid-January thaw in 1995 removed the last of the 12" that had fallen on the 2nd, leading to a week-plus of bare ground. Not at all common.
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Measuring snow - storm totals or pack - will always somewhat arbitrary due to the nature of the material. The difference at my stake between total and consecutive days with 1"+ is but 5", 122" vs 117", and in 10 of 21 winters the difference has ranged zero to 2 days. And it's not always related to total snowfall - 2002-03 with its 67.8" but lots of sustained cold had 1"+ for 4 days longer than 2007-08 with 142.3" snowfall. Unless there's major late-winter thaws like 2010 and 2012, the #1 key to long-duration cover is November snow followed by cold. Only in 3 of 21 winters, 02-03, 14-15 and last winter, has cover been maintained from November into the heart of winter. Other years with long-duration cover (07-08, 13-14) benefitted from snows in the first few days of December.
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Using your event steps (and adding 8"-ers), here's 21 winters' worth. Amount Freq.% Avg 18-19 Max; winter 6" 95% 4.6 4 9; 07-08 8" 95% 3.1 2 6, 07-08 & 13-14 10" 76% 1.9 2 5; 13-14 12" 67% 1.3 0 4; 00-01 15" 43% 0.8 0 3; 00-01 & 16-17 18" 38% 0.4 0 2; 16-17 20" 24% 0.3 0 2; 16-17 Average for winter's largest: 14.97" Edit: Correction of previous post - only 6 winters reached 40", with 5 coming in 07-08 on.
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Closest I've come to having measurable in June was 6/9/1980, when flurries turned our grass to lime-green. If we'd been at 970' in the back settlement (moved there 9/81) instead of in town at 530', we'd probably have had an inch or so, based on what co-workers had to contend with west of Allagash. This past winter had continuous 1"= cover from Nov. 10 thru April 20, total of 162 days. Had one day with an inch in October for 163 total, both numbers tops here by about 2 weeks. Number 2 for SDDs with 3,443, over 600 above #3 but well back of the 3,835 in 07-08. Top depth was 41" on 3/10, 7th winter reaching 40" and 6th in the past 12 years (after having only 00-01 reach the mark in my first 9 winters here.)
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The close-up pic helps, though I'm not a good enough entomologist to ID the critter. Since it appears hairless, like an inch worm, maybe winter moth? That's an invasive from across the pond that's been chewing up trees in southern Maine. However, the season's massive green salad is a smorgasbord for all kinds of insects, some native and some from away.
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Looks "dogwood-ey" thanks to those veins curving toward the leaf tip, a characteristics of the genus. Almost the only tree group with leaf veining like that. Bark isn't like that of the native flowering dogwood, which usually doesn't flower until it's a bit bigger than yours. It's also a touchy tree to raise and transplant. Most nurseries would be more likely to have Kousa dogwood, an Asian species that flowers (eventually.) All that said, I can't say exactly what kind of tree, other than it almost certainly isn't found in the Maine woods. Edit: Desktop, so can't see the critter on Kev's oak.
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Quick and dirty way to estimate whether that tree will reach the pen. One needs a straight stick about 30" long. Standing with back to pen, hold the stick horizontally at arm's length with the near end against the nose, as close to the eye as is safe. Without moving the hand closer, rotate the stick to vertical, align where it leaves the hand with the base of the tree. If the treetop extends above the top of the stick, the pen is within reach. Same can be done with other possible "targets." (Similar right triangles) Apple trees are peaking with blossoms this year. It's a great year for the blossoms. Some years I don't have many blossoms and some years I do. So lots of apples for the deer. Last summer was very dry as I missed almost every thunderstorm. Wonder if they were stressed and that helped this season? Don't trees/flowers produce more fruit after a stressful time. Will have to Google that... My Haralred, the most proctive of our 3 by far, is absolutely covered with blossoms. The Ultramac and Empire look to have loads as well though they're just beginning to open. (Can't recall having them all blossom so late before.) Last year we had considerable blossoms on all 3, though not nearly as prolific as now, and there appeared to be good fruit set. Unfortunatley, all but about 2 dozen on the Haralred and a couple each on the others suffered premature drop during the superhumid period in July - maybe the wx favored some fungal disease as the cause, but I don't really know.
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My thoughts: Since it's a double tree, things get complicated. Perhaps the cut should be made as close to the ground as feasible, despite all the extra cutting needed. Those twin stems kind of keep either one from going to the right by itself. If there's room to tip the left stem toward the camera, I'd do that first, cutting about 2' above the old stump to keep the right stem from interfering. First thing I'd do is tie a stout rope to the tree, preferably around both stems (unless the left one can be dropped first) and as high as safely possible, with the other end to a solid anchor, like another sizable but living tree. If a come-along is available, I'd tie a loop in the rope such that, when the tag end was firmly lashed to the anchor and the line from tree to tree was taut, the loop would be almost out to full come-along extension. That way the winch can be used without releasing from the anchor. --Here's how I was taught to safely dump a tree against its lean: Make a normal front notch; I'd recommend open face (90° angle between top and bottom of notch) to help control the fall all the way to the ground. Then make a plunge cut 1-2" behind the notch, making sure there's at least an inch (or 2 with a dead tree) of hinge wood remaining. Then continue the plunge cut toward the back of the tree, stopping 2-3" from going all the way. Then do another plunge cut from the back side 3-4" below where the 1st one would've come out, making sure that 2nd cut covers the "footprint" of the wood left at the back of the tree by stopping plunge cut #1. With the tree held by the hinge and the wood in back, drive a wedge into the 2nd plunge cut (on a big tree I've needed 2, struck alternately, and maybe sprayed with WD-40 first.) The wedging will split the wood between 1st and 2nd plunge cuts and tip the tree in the desired direction. Sounds complicated, but with the rope for safety and the tree never resting on less than 2 spots until it falls, things should go okay. ("Should" requires some "splaining", as Ricky would tell Lucy. I did this procedure on a large ash - 16" by 80' - and unfortunately there was hidden rot that compromised about half the hinge, all one side. The hinge failed and allowed the tree to fall not toward its lean, but sideways away from the rot, where it solidly lodged in another ash. If you see interior rot when you make the front notch, leave a wider hinge, especially behind the rotten part.)
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Recall well that event, though it was mainly on the 25th in NNJ - not all that much RA but strong winds taking down newly leafed-out trees and low 40s. High at NYC was 46, about 30° below the norm for the date. And the snowy cold winter of 1960-61 also had a near-solstice surprise - on 5/27 we had cold RA at low 40s and a few pingers.
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Had a sprinkle an hour back here in Augusta, but radar says some more significant stuff is now arriving. Temp near 50 and probably about to slide down a few.
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When visiting the Minnesota Arboretum some years back, I saw a Mongolian birch (Latin name forgotten) about 20 feet tall and 6" diameter. It had beautiful copper-gold bark, as pretty as any tree I've seen. Is your birch like that?
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Shades of 2010, when the 13 weeks ending May 7 featured just 13 with BN temps and that quarter year ran nearly +8°, causing my apple trees to be in full bloom that early. Then May 11-13 had minima of 22,26,25, not only killing every blossom but also toasting all the ash and oak leaves plus some (usually hardy) sugar maple. Most damaging late freeze I've seen.
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Could be even worse - the logging contractor who lived just across the frontier from St.-Pamphile, PQ had his garden killed on July 4th week 4 years running, before he gave up. (Back in the cold 1970s, when my pumpkins got scorched on 7/31/78.)
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The description fits the Eastern tent caterpillar but the picture looks more like the forest tent caterpillar. The latter doesn't make visible tents, and in an outbreak can defoliate whole forest. They prefer aspen but will eat all broadleafed trees. The early 1980s outbreak in N. Maine/NB had these critters being called "army worms." People would open a door and a hundred would crawl in, causing some folks to move away temporarily. Squished caterpillars stopped a few trains from climbing grades. I have a coupe of hickories that I planted out back, but those take awhile to grow and don't do well with transplanting since they have a monster tap root. I laso planted a yellow birch and a tulip poplar, but the tulip is another fast growing tree that drops a lot of branches over its lifetime. Tulip trees drop branches, but they're not in the same league as weeping willow for that. Wood of tulip tree is about as weak as silver maple but the former's vertical growth habitat makes it less likely to break from ice or wet snow. There's a large one - 30"+ diameter and 70'+ tall, in downtown Farmington (Maine) that doesn't seem to shed many branches and has withstood a lot of snow and ice. Two houses up from that specimen is a littleleaf linden (European relative of native basswood) of similar size that is a bit worse for branch loss.
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'Fraid so. Had never heard of autumn blaze so I looked it up. Seems highly regarded for fast growth, moderate size, fall color, and tolerance to urban conditions. It's a hybrid of red and silver maples, and the piece I read (which could've worked as ad copy for selling this variety, so maybe check several sources) said that it kept the strength of red maple, which is far better at resisting snow/ice breakage than silver.
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If there's no green in the buds, I'm pessimistic, but I'd wait until July before giving up. And that pic confirms that it's not a Norway maple; if it were, I'd not be all that worried about losing an invasive, but it looks like a native maple. Oaks are fine here. Big ol’ leaves. Looking good here, too, though the leaves are only about 2" long - everything is late and this morning's 31-32 didn't help.
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Does not sound good. A young open-grown tree that produces those side shoots is probably a tree in trouble, trying to save itself. I f any of those buds are within reach, try splitting a couple with your nails (or with a knife, carefully.) If they're green inside, there's hope. I'm assuming it was planted 8-9 years ago, not grown from seed in your yard. Is it the native red maple, or the variety of Norway maple that has red foliage? (May not make much difference, though.) Has anything changed near that tree? Soil compaction, root damage, change in water table, reaction to lawn chemicals? Kev/Scott: That oak also looks to be in trouble, unless it's merely showing the initial work of this spring's feeding by gypsy moth larvae. Otherwise, something looks to be killing some high-in-crown branches, and that often portends continued dieback. Hope that's not the case. Trees are usually tough, but odd things can happen. There was a very healthy looking pin oak growing in front of the Coke bottling plant in Farmington (Maine), a tree about 15" diameter and 40' tall that had lovely red foliage each fall. (IMO, pin oak has the best fall color of any oak.) Then spring 2 years ago it completely failed to leaf out, and in late summer was removed. I've no idea what caused its death.
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Not promising much precision in diagnosing specific agents affecting tree health from a photo, but I'm always ready to make a guess whether I know anything or not. When I was at U. Maine, one of the professors noted that science had not really arrived at a firm reason why trees die. Not referring to death from disease, insects, wind, fire, but just running out of life. Maybe it's similar to why there's a cap on human lifespan, cell replication gets sloppy and bad things result (simplification, but not irrelevant.)
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When we lived in NNJ, it was easily noted that those caterpillars ate the white oak group first, then the reds, then everything else but ash. Have not noticed that white-over-red preference in Maine, though the fact that Maine has hundreds of red oaks for every white probably mutes the gypsies' priorities. Lots of reasons for oaks (or any species) to show that symptom, and weakness due to repeated defoliation/refoliation certainly could be a factor. If the non-leafed-out branches are in the main crown and receive good sunlight, the cause is likely some outside agent like gypsy moth or some disease. If the bare branches are within the crown/shade, it could be natural pruning, though white oak doesn't prune itself nearly as efficiently as red.
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Not for much of NNE. And sun hasn't been all that abundant.
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Never got here yesterday - high was 53. Total precip thru 7 this morning was 0.57", most of which came 3-5 AM. Had a 10-minute downpour in Augusta at 8, now just very light stuff. Big Q: will we warm-sector this afternoon? Forecast says yes, though as Chris notes in the convection thread, svr chances seem to be retreating. SNH already upper 60s with mid-60s dews while AUG area was near 50.
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More clouds than sun here but flirting with 60 so still a decent day. Blackflies made their appearance, and one took a bite. Can't remember ever getting bit on the 1st day before - usually they flit around checking the menu for 2-3 days before chowing down.
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Usually EAB has infested a tree for a couple years before symptoms become visible, after which comes the quick death you saw. Apparently there is a very small minority of ash that exhibit resistance/tolerance for EAB, so I don't think the species group will go extinct, but will probably be gone as a significant component of the forest. Hillerich & Bradsby can switch to maple. Indigenous people in Maine and the Maritimes, for whom brown ash and the products made from it are important cultural facets, have no plan B.
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That (the bolded) is my method to get an accurate measurement. However, I don't try to fill in the melt/sublime pit around the stake. I plant it in the fall on the most level part of the garden, which varies from year to year by what crops were grown, and it's 25' or so from the cleared path to the shed. Getting into shovel reach means snowshoes, and I make pretty deep hol;es in a non-glacial pack - would rather not make a bunch of large foot-deep impressions just a couple yards from the stake if I don't have to. My stake is white with black markings, but made from a 2-by-4 so not exactly thin. I guess we’ll just have to make do if this is the sort of stuff we have to deal with in the current climate regime that everyone talks about here in the forum. I've just distilled some snow/temp data for an informational paper I'm doing on climate change effects on forest management. I have model info for the Northeast but wanted to be Maine-centric, and chose CAR for the north, Rangeley for the western mountains, and Farmington for a lower elevation site still close to the landbase we manage. I may toss the cold/snowy 60s and 70s because they stand out even in a 125-year record like that at Farmington - snowfall 15% higher than in any other full decade and coldest DJF and DJFM temps of any decade. Here's what I've found: Farmington (1893-on) Snowfall: very close to 90"/yr except for 106" in 60s/70s. Max depth locked in at near 30" except 35-36 for 60s-70s. Snowpack retention (records start 1940): Cover 1"+ for recent decades down 3% from 40s-50s. Temps (DJF and DJFM, the period for frozen-ground logging): Significant rise this century, about 2F above 80s-90s and early 20th century. Caribou (1940-on) Snowfall: About a 5% increase this century compared to 40s-50s. However, max depth is down about 5" for the most recent 20 years. (However, I wonder if there's a difference in how snow gets blown around compared to earlier years. The 14" blizzard of late Jan 1977 added 14" to their depth, while storms of 13" and 14" in march 2008 each added just 4".) Snowpack retention: Cover 1"+ down 5-6% for the 21st century. Temps: Significant rise this century, about 2F above 80s-90s and early 20th century. Rangeley (1961-on, so no earlier check. Also, have not parsed their temp data.) Snowfall: Last 10 winters (119.7") same as 1961-on (119.8") Greatest depth 2000-on is 2" above 1961-on. Snowpack retention: 21st century 1"+ cover 2% higher than 1961-on. Conclusion: Little to no effect on snowfall and top depth, slight eroding of 1"+ duration, 21st century winter temp 2F above previous, probably due to more frequent/milder thaws.