psuhoffman

Being on the southern fringes of projected snowfall at day 3-5 absent blocking is never ever where you want to be. I could run off a long list of similar setups where even the euro was too far south at 72-100 hours with the southern edge of snow. We were never where I wanted to see guidance even on the best runs. The trend north happened exactly how/when I expected.

Why am I only wrong when I’m optimistic.

Why am I only wrong when I’m optimistic.

I would love the latest trends if I was in northern PA

The 12z icon shows what I’m talking about. Stronger system. Faster onset. Better thump of precip. But all rain. The north shift of the entire thermal gradient finally overcame what the benefits from those other factors can compensate for. If I had to bet that’s where this is heading.

To a point the north shift in the thermal boundary can be offset by better dynamic cooling or faster onset but only to a point. If the north trend continues we won’t like the end result.

Guidance overall is bleeding warmer each run. It’s been offset for now by a stronger system dynamically cooling the column (for the nw areas) but if the north trend continues the end won’t be good.

April fools snowstorm on gfs

Noted. You can feel better than everyone else now. Moving on.

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once. In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care. We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away. We aren’t special biologically. The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it. Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence.

There are narratives on both sides. Some have nuggets of truth then spin off the deep end. I’m not getting into a tit for tat. Wrt media both sides have decided hurting the other is more important than unbiased accurate reporting. It’s a problem.

The mortality rate is no doubt lower. But that’s true of most viruses because we never have a true number of all cases. Even the flu, how many people go undiagnosed each year. The real mortality rate is likely lower for that also. The real issue isn’t necessarily the mortality rate though. It’s preventing a sudden spike is cases that would collapse our healthcare system. Then people can die of other things due to lack of medical care. Because we have no vaccine and no natural immunity in the population to this it’s dangerous for that reason. It can spread rapidly and get lots of people sick at once over burdening our system.

I applilogize for how my statement came off. Please give me a chance to fully explain. Stupid isn’t confined to any political ideology. And you by no means fall into that category. I know your political leanings and I respect that and have no issue with it. I have good friends who are conservative. My criticism wasn’t aimed at conservatives, it was aimed at conservative media that for some reason (maybe they saw this as a threat to Trumps re-election) spent months telling people this was a hoax or a liberal conspiracy to hurt Trump. I think that is a problem now in trying to convince everyone to make personal sacrifices for the larger good. If people think this is a hoax they aren’t going to alter their behaviors. That message by some right wing media was irresponsible imo. That’s not the fault of the people who got that message. And liberals would fall prey to the same type of ploy. I’m not ignorant that there are similar issues on the left. I’ve seen liberal memes based on lies spread also. I get irked by CNN and MSNBC when they are trying too hard to attack the right instead of just conducting a fair interview and reporting news. I was mad the other day when CNN had Pence on and wasted the whole time trying to get shots in about Trumps stumbles at the PC rather than ask substantive questions about the current situation. Had the liberal media spent the last 2 months telling everyone this was a Trump hoax I’m sure many liberals would have the same attitude based on misinformation right now. And the left leaning media HAS been reporting this in a sensationalist style trying to hype for ratings imo. That’s no better and spreads panic and now you can’t buy toilet paper! The real problem imo is our media just plain sucks. Both sides. The fact that there are sides to “news” is the problem! The news has become propaganda on both sides and because of that we’ve lost trust in information. It’s a serious problem and this current situation highlights that. Im sorry my initial post came off the way it did. The way I said it was wrong. The larger issue here isn’t one political side but that our media became more entertainment and partisan propaganda than news and its hurting us...now especially.

@WxWatcher007 btw how is your mother doing? Take care of yourself and your loved ones.

Millions of people think the world is flat. And on top of just plain “stupid” we currently have a political climate where a segment of society has created their own narrative that has nothing to do with reality in any way. How much damage was done by that segment being fed conspiracy theory nonsense and a dismissive attitude for months? I have family in conservative coal country PA and I just read a whole thread one of them posted saying how stupid this is and they aren’t falling for this scam or changing plans at all. I have to imagine some of that was fueled by the weeks of BS they got from conservative media.

A -NAO isn’t always a deep eastern trough but anything that tries to amplify will likely be forced south somewhat in winter in that look. Just in time to be too late.

Yea but they include like a year before and 2 after in that so it could be the year after next. But the fact the NAO is due to flip base states is one thing to hold out hope on. But there are more negatives than positives in the always murky long range crystal ball. But honestly that’s normal. Our base state is suck.

Yup there it is just in time to be just too late.

Maybe but the flat west to east flow is a problem. By the time the wave gets gets there is very little reflection left to turn the wind trajectory so we are left with WAA being offset by downsloping.

Not really. It’s still there as a possibility. But even a best case scenario it’s weak sauce. Whatever ejects out west is crashing into a huge ridge and de amplifying. Could a slightly stronger wave lead to a mini thump...maybe but the whole setup was and is rather limited for anything more than conversation flakes. I’m completely swamped at work so haven’t been able to analyze or post much. This is by far the busiest time of year for me. The month before spring break is when everyone decides yearly stuff needs to get done and every deadline hits.

Gfs day 11...that’s the one I’m tracking

I think because even on good runs it’s only 1-2” (if that) for most. I don’t think at this point anyone cares about 1-2”. But if we get a run that shows 6”+ across guidance I bet this thread lights up quick. There is a slight chance the wave juices up some as we get closer but the flow is de-amplified in the east. Cold is only one part of the equation.

Can we start extrapolating the NAM yet?

People can enjoy 2 things you know. I am loving this weather. I also loved playing in the snow Saturday.

What are you talking about. Your posts just suck and everyone hates them. That’s just a fact not trolling. But wow you’re still all bent over that from 11 hours ago. Lol. For a troll you have incredibly thin skin.