psuhoffman

His verification might be much lower but I bet his bank account is much higher!

If it snows a lot I get to enjoy the winter. If it’s another torch snowless winter the “it’s not actually snowing less, your eyes don’t work and you can’t math” crew have to shut up. Win either way.

My house is mostly ok. Some minor roof damage. Pool is wrecked though. Wind threw a glass table from the patch into it and the glass ended up shattered in the pool. Lost some big trees. I’m going to have to take down what’s left of the big tree next to the house in the back. It’s too damaged. That was our shade. But all in all lucky. There are some houses in much worse shape that I saw.

I was stuck on 30 near Cape Horn as it passed. It was bad. Trees came down around me. I pulled into the little lot by the pond next to the middle school. It lifted up the Portable restroom that’s there and threw it. A tree came down next to my car. Luckily nothing hit my car. Town is a mess right now. Just got the kids. Couldn’t tell if it was straight line or tornado. Happened too fast and was raining too hard. But I heard police confirmed a tornado on the ground near the PA line after it passed us. ETA: sky had that eerie green look right before all hell broke lose

I keep seeing him commenting that CO2 cannot warm the oceans because it can’t penetrate… whatever.

Does JB really not understand how endothermic processes work?

We’ve never had a super Nino with the forcing centered west. We’ve had east and basin wide. It’s been theorized a west based super Nino would be very good. Maybe we will see.

So many subtle variables it’s likely for now we just have to file some things under sh&# happens. Much like 1996 and 2014 went against the trends for Nina and neutral winters. let’s hope sh$@ doesn’t happen this winter or it could get ugly in here. I feeks like many are hanging their hats on this Nino and expecting a big recovery. I think that’s very possible. But I also know a 1973/1992/1995/1998 could happen too. We roll the dice.

I’m sure Chuck would be glad to explain it to you.

He is a clown. Don’t over think it.

Is there a rule that there always has to be at least one resident clown occupying our long range discussions?

Are you sure about those exact calculations? Maybe you should show your work. I’m gonna need verification on this data.

In fairness I said you would be right 80%. This winter might be one of the 20%. I’d probably go above normal snow right now if I had to predict…which I don’t.

Just predict “warmer than normal with below normal snow” and you will be right 80% of the time.

Careful someone will be along soon to say how this is an exaggeration Have to thread that needle don't we... Right on schedule...do we really have to do this again? Your arguments don't even have internal logical consistency...

The warm and cold anomalies are all in the right places...and I am cautiously optimistic...but the whole background state is much warmer and we just don't know what impact that might have...but unfortunately it likely won't be good. ETA: When I say it likely won't be good I mean compared to what happened in 2009/10. It's very likely to still be better than the utter crap we've been used to lately.

Funny you dropped the “figuratively” which implies it’s a generalization and exaggeration. And you do realize the United States is a rather insignificant portion of the Earth! Let me know if you need more lessons in linguistics and geography

Are you making a macro or micro point? In the micro it’s possible the nino could position what little cold there is over us. That could favor a short term short lived win. In the macro the fact that it’s warmer than normal over a vast majority of the planet is a huge problem for snow prospects.

One reason is that some of the longer term changes happening (expanded Hadley cell, tightening pac jet, Indo pac warm pool) are causing a Nina like base state pattern response to begin with. They all have a similar impact as a Nina. The other is specific to my gradient comment. If you have a warm enso region surrounded by warmer waters it muted the gradient. But if you have colder enso waters surrounded by the same warmer waters elsewhere is enhances the gradient. Everything is stacked against us right now. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. It’s just harder. It’s happening less often. But the good news is if we’re ever going to break out of this things look about as good as we could hope for (within the larger awful reality that the whole world is on fire figuratively).

Not sure how much impact a Nino has when there is very little gradient. On the other hand Nina’s are being enhanced. Not good.

I am very interested in the results. But I know how difficult it is to get at that in a statistically significant way so I appreciate the work.

This "would" (because we don't know yet if its even real) be a perfect test of a running conversation we've had recently. That pattern is literally our snowiest look historically. But look at the actual temp anomalies... It's seasonably chilly...but that is not an arctic cold look. As is typical with most nino blocking regimes our source regions are relatively torched and true arctic air is cut off from the CONUS. But there would be a very favorable storm track and we would need to rely on domestic cold. Will that work in 2023/24 like it did numerous times in the past? I have my popcorn ready! As said above its not actually a cold look...it is a "snowy" look...at least historically. Of course given how warm our winters have been lately a "near normal" one might feel frigid. But I am not a fan of cold really...just need enough cold for snow and I am happy. I do suspect we do at the least OK in that pattern. Even if we no longer get 1987, 1996 or 2010 type results from something like that...I doubt the climate has degraded to the extent we get no snow from it either. And if it is "just cold enough" we could get hypothetically even get MORE snow from some juiced up monster storms. Imagine getting multiple 2016 type storms in a season! You called...

A lot more of the Nino's during the last significant -PDO featured a -PNA. We overcame that in many of them with blocking. I have my doubts how that would work now.